We know that deep keeper league and dynasty league owners may not be able to wait until just months before the season to evaluate prospects. So, we’re here at the end of the minor league regular season to do our best to help you start making decisions like: is Clayton Kershaw a better prospect than Deolis Guerra?
We understand that without currently having access to general managers and scouts (Adam’s efforts have been shot down so far) we’re only going to be able to see a small portion of the whole picture. But we consult experts, read everything we can find on the players who we are evaluating, and occasionally do our own scouting.
Realistically approaching our scope, we decided that putting out a top three prospect list for every Major League Baseball organization would be an interesting way to break ground. We feel confident that we can put together the type of rankings that we would want to reference ourselves.
Working on these rankings was an arduous process, so much so that it pulled us away from our usual nightly dosage MLB Extra Innings for more than a week. We missed a full evening alone trying to audition talent for organizations without a lot of top-tier talent like the Nationals, Padres and Cardinals.
So chew our rankings up, pass them on to your friends, and give Project Prospect some exposure, hopefully without succumbing to the urge to use our uncomfortable abbreviation "PP".
Note: Our prospect rankings are based
on a combination of a player’s potential and the likelihood of that
player reaching his potential. We plan to post top threes by division
every couple of days, so our National League West rankings are part one
of this six part piece.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Chris Young, OF:
Young did not disappoint in his new franchise. His .276/.363/.532 line
brought him from Tucson across the desert to Phoenix by the middle of
August. The 16th round 2001 draft pick – he severely broke
his left forearm a few days before the draft – out of Bellaire High
School in Texas was also on the verge of going 20/20 in Tucson before
he was called up. He had 20 home runs to go along with 17 steals in 22
attempts.
Young looks like a very special talent, drawing comparisons to Carlos Beltran, Eric Davis, and Mike Cameron.
2. Carlos Gonzalez, OF:
Signed in 2002 out of Venezuela, Gonzalez, 20, started the season in
High-A Lancaster and finished in Double-A Tennessee, accumulating a
combined line of .289/.348/.543, and launching 23 bombs to go along
with 41 doubles, while stealing 16 bases in 24 attempts.
Yet another “toolsy” outfielder, Gonzalez lost to Young in our rankings mainly because the former White Sox farmhand is closer to the majors, but also because his poor 75.0% contact ratio. With Carlos Quentin, Upton, Young, and Gonzalez the Diamondbacks have the problem of trying to figure out who doesn’t fit into their long-term plans – Mike Rizzo and company A+.
3. Justin Upton, OF:
The No. 1 overall pick from the 2005 draft didn’t put up great numbers
in Single-A South Bend with a .263/.343/.413 line. He also doubled 28
times, hit 12 home runs, and stole 15 bases in 22 attempts.
Upton, 19, did rate well in one indicator, K/BB with a 1.85 ratio and
still owns the record for the largest signing bonus in amateur draft
history ($6.1 million). His brother (Melvin/Bossman Jr./B.J.) played in
Single-A and Double-A in his first professional season. Justin, perhaps
baseball’s second most “toolsy” prospect (behind Delmon Young) will
likely be eased through the minors and kick 2007 off in High-A
Lancaster.
Colorado Rockies
1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS:
Known as a slick fielder will a powerful bat, the 2005 first round
draft pick put up a .291/.370/.473 line in AA-Tulsa before getting an
August 30th promotion straight to the big league club in
Colorado. Tulowitzki, 21, hit 13 home runs and 34 doubles in Double-A
Tulsa with just 6 steals in 11 attempts.
Fans have tried
to end the Tulowitzki to Bobby Crosby comparisons due to the peanut
brittle factor surrounding the other former Long Beach State shortstop.
While we still like the comparisons since both players sport similar
plate discipline – Crosby had a 1.69K/BB ratio in the minors to Tulo’s
1.62 – we recognize that Tulowitzki isn’t too far from challenging his
fellow former Dirtbag in the major league baseball shortstop ranks.
2. Franklin Morales,LHP:
What’s not to like about a 20-year-old lefty who can touch 98 and
struck out 10.46 batters per nine innings in High-A Modesto? Morales
also compiled a 1.40 WHIP (.223 BAA and 179K/89BB incase you prefer it
that way).
Signed out of the Dominican in 2002, Morales
projects as a frontline starter. He entered the season at just
6-foot-0, 170-pounds, but Glenallen Hill, his Modesto coach, is big
strong man, so Morales figures to have added a significant amount of
muscle under Hill’s tutelage - we promise not to get any more immature
than this.
3. Ian Stewart, 3B: The 10th
overall pick in the 2003 draft, Stewart, 21, began producing in the
Rockies’ system at the tender age of 18. Coming off of a successful
2005 season in High-A Modesto where he was a California League
All-Star, he stayed somewhat on track in 2006 at Double-A Tulsa,
putting up .268/.351/.452 vitals in 462 at-bats and 120 games.
Stewart’s numbers have dropped off slightly from his teenage years, but the Rockies are hopeful that he will continue to mature – both on offense and defense (he’s considered an average defender). And while his offensive production has taken a dip, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound lefty’s (throws right) strikeout and walk ratios have stayed constant, so a red flag is not necessary quite yet.
Stewart may start his fourth minor league season in 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. The Rockies are in no hurry to rush him to the majors given the emergence of Garrett Atkins
Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Andy LaRoche, 3B:Last year, the younger LaRoche brother had 56 extra base-hits in High-A and Double-A combined. This year, he totaled 47 in Double-A and Triple-A. But for some reason, LaRoche, 22 (turns 23 on 9/13), doesn’t get much mention as one of the game’s elite prospects. His .315/.410/.514 line is elite – as in consideration for top 10 overall prospect – as far as we're concerned.
Only really rating below average in the speed department, LaRoche has the tools to be a standout major league third baseman. And he’ll be ready to contribute by midseason 2007 at the latest.
2. Scott Elbert, LHP:
Elbert, 21, is another prospect who will help keep the Dodgers in
contention for the rest of the decade. A power pitcher with the
potential to headline a rotation, the 2004 1st round draft pick struck out 10.66 batters per nine innings while splitting time between High-A and Double-A.
He did, however, give up 15 home runs in 146.0 total innings and walked 85 batters vs. his 173 strikeouts. But the 6-foot-2, 190-pound Missouri native limited opposing batters to a .190 batting average, though, and he measures up as one of the top five pitching prospects in the game in our minds.
3. James Loney, 1B: Perhaps
the first baseman of the future for the Dodgers, Loney, 22, only hits
about as many homeruns as current Los Angeles first baseman, Nomar
Garciaparra. But his home run totals one of the few blemishes in his
game.
Loney
turned in a .380/.426/.546 line with 33 doubles and 8 home runs for
Triple-A Las Vegas in 2006. He hit a career-high 11 home runs at
Double-AA Jacksonville in 2005, but only batted .284 that season. It’s
not like they relied on power in 2006, so stay tuned for how the
Dodgers plan on using this immense talent.
San Diego Padres
1. Cedric Hunter, OF: When it came to digging for top talent in the Padres organization, we not only reached water tables, but discovered some ancient confined aquifers, too. So, players like Cedrick Hunter, 18, aren’t the type of guys who should be considered for anything but dynasty leagues that require owners to build mineshafts.
Hunter was drafted in the 3rd round in 2006. He could some day be a 20/20 center fielder, evidence by his 89.67% contact ratio along with 951 OPS and 17 stolen bases in 213 Rookie ball at bats last summer. The lefty should be in line to start 2007 in Single-A. He’ll need to keep on raking to maintain his rank midway up the mineshaft for San Diego.
2. Chase Headley, 3B: A
few years ago, Sean Burroughs ran into Headley at a slip and slide
competition, eyed up his nearly identical frame, and said, “I shall
call him mini-me.”
Headley, 22, hit just 12 homeruns in 484 High-A Lake Elsinore at bats and put up a .291/.389/.434 line with four steals in nine attempts. He doesn’t project to have the power to be a viable corned infielder, but the Padres are cool with that – San Diego has not had a third baseman hit more than 15 home runs since Phil Nevin hit 41 at Qualcomm in 2001.
3. Cesar Carrillo, RHP:
Drafted in the first round in 2005 out of Miami, Carrillo, 22,
undoubtedly has frontline starter potential, but he’s also building up
a bit of an injury history.
The 6-foot-3, 177-pound righty had his stock drop out of high school due to biceps tendonitis. After throwing just 53.1 innings in the minors in 2006 (nine starts in Double-A Mobile and one in Triple-A Portland), Carrillo was shut down with a strained right forearm flexor. He could easily jump back up to the top of our list in 2007 – he still has thrown a total of just 109.2 innings between High-A and Triple-A – but Carrillo certainly has something to prove before he gets to hang out in the Gas Lamp District.
San Francisco Giants
1. Tim Lincecum, RHP: On the day the Giants signed Lincecum, Jason Schmidt tied Christy Mathewson’s 1906 franchise record of 16 strikeouts in one game. The tiny (5-foot-8, 160-pounds) flamethrower who has a fastball that touches 98 miles per hour could be the next San Francisco pitcher to challenge that record.
Lincecum struck out more than 11.0 batters per nine every year he pitched at the University of Washington – 14.29 in 2006. And he has continued to show that his feats were no fluke, sending 15.60 batters per nine to grab some pine in his 27.2 innings in High-A San Jose, holding his opposition to a .135 batting average while walking 12. Giants fans will soon realize – if they haven’t already – that the team isn’t going to have to do too much rebuilding with Matt Cain, Lincecum, and Noah Lowry already in hand.
2. Jonathan Sanchez, RHP:
While the Giants haven’t made much of a mark with hitting prospects
during the Brian Sabean era – we're anxious to research the kind of
resources they’ve poured into hitting vs. pitching – they have been
exceptional when it comes to pitching prospects. Sanchez, 23, is a
great example.
Drafted in the 27th round in 2004 out of
Ohio Dominican, Sanchez has the ability to throw in the mid-90s and he
sports a plus curveball. Don’t let this scare you, Baseball America compared him to Oliver Perez
entering the 2006 season – both are wiry lefties who throw hard.
Sanchez was mishandled when the Giants brought him up from Double-A
Connecticut to the majors in late May in order to use him as a
reliever. He was later sent down to Triple-A Fresno where he didn’t
disappoint - 10.63 K/9 in 23.2 innings and a .163 BAA. Control problems
(27 walks in his 49.0 innings between Triple-A and the majors) are the
only thing really holding Sanchez back from becoming a mainstay in the
Giants rotation.
3. Nate Schierholtz, OF: Rivaled by Kevin Frandsen
now and perhaps Angel Villalona in the near future, Schierholtz, 23,
looks like the Giants best bat despite his .270/.325/.443 line because
he played a majority of his games in the pitcher-friendly Dodd Stadium
(Double-A Connecticut).