This article is Part five of a six part series on the top three
prospects in every Major League Baseball organization. Click the
following links for the previously published articles in this series: NL West, AL West, NL Central, and AL Central. We will wrap up out Top 3s next Monday with AL East and on October, 16th with our top prospect from each division.
Atlanta Braves
1. Elvis Andrus, SS: Losing Rafael Furcal in the off-season provided the franchise with a significant hole, but it was plugged up quickly by the acquisition of Edgar Renteria and the development of a teenager named Elvis Andrus.
The Braves think Andrus, a shortstop out of Venezuela who turned 18 in late-August, can be as good as the recently departed five-tool shortstop if not better.
This season Andrus spent the year with Low-A Rome and struggled a bit, putting up .265/.324/.362 vitals and stealing just 23 bases out of 38 attempts (60.5%). But considering his age relative to his competition, “The King” continued to impress the Braves front office with his maturity – especially defensively. Andrus may repeat Low-A to start the season, but if he progresses well and develops the kind of power that the club sees in him, the 6-foot-0, 185-pound righty could be Atlanta’s next home-grown hero by 2009.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C: The one person in the Braves organization who likely wasn’t thrilled about Brian McCann’s
meteoric ascension to stardom was Saltalamacchia. The 21-year-old
backstop seems unlikely to beat out his major league counterpart, but
he’s certainly still making a name for himself in the minors.
Saltalamacchia dominated High-A Myrtle Beach in 2005 to the tune of a .912 OPS. Despite less-enamoring .230/.353/.380 vitals this year at Double-A Mississippi, he still managed to improve both his strikeout and walk ratios. Some critics point to a wrist problem that sidelined the 6-foot-4, 195-pound switch-hitter in early July as cause for his slight decline in numbers.
The Florida native seems to hit effectively from both sides of the plate, though his frame might be too big to handle the everyday grind of catching at the major league level. Even so, Saltalamacchia should be ready for the majors by 2008, whichever team he ends up playing for.
3. Eric Campbell, 3B:
After an unimpressive start to his professional career, Campbell, 21
and a second round draft pick in 2004, tore up the Rookie League with
the Danville Braves and continued his success when he was promoted to
Low-A Rome. He posted impressive .296/.335/.517 2006 vitals and stole
18 bases in 22 attempts (81.8%).
The 6-foot-0, 195-pound
righty’s power has never been questioned and his 84.9% contact ratio
looks impressive as well. Campbell’s defense is what seems likely to
hold him back more than anything else. He’ll likely spend the next few
years in the minors, so it’s tough to label him as Atlanta’s future
third base heir.
Florida Marlins
1. Gaby Hernandez, RHP: Acquired from the Mets in the Paul LoDuca trade (3rd
round draft pick in 2004), Hernandez, 20, quickly joined the mix for
the right to be called the Marlins top prospect following their
promotions of Jeremy Hermida, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Scott
Olsen, Yusmeiro Petit, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco.
Hernandez made up for a rough April by pitching well in May, June, and July before he fell victim to a season-ending foot fracture. He finished the season with an 8.63 K/9 ratio, 1.30 WHIP, and 0.53 HR/9 ratio in High-A Jupiter. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound righty is in the mix to be one of the top 100 prospects in baseball, but he doesn’t appear dominant enough to be more than a No. 3 major league starter to us.
2. Chris Volstad, RHP: MiLB.com
still lists Volstad, 20, as 6-foot-7, 190-pounds. He may have put on a
bit more weight since their last update, but he has plenty of room to
fill out and his velocity won’t be maxed out until he adds more muscle
mass.
The 2005 first-round draft pick put up pretty unimpressive numbers in his first full season, 5.86 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, and 0.71 HR/9 in A-Greensboro. Volstad still has a ton of potential, but he only has jumped to the top of the Florida farm system in our minds because the organization called up just about every major-league-ready prospect it had in 2006.
3. Sean West, LHP:
The third 20-year-old Marlins pitching prospect on our list, West is a
6-foot-8, 200-pound lefty who was one of five Marlins draft picks from
inside of the first 45 selections in 2005.
The Louisiana native is very close to passing Volstad in our minds, despite being selected 28 picks later. In A-Greensboro, West struck out 7.63 batter per nine and turned in a 1.29 WHIP, but he gave up 13 home runs in 120.1 innings (0.97 HR/9). West has No. 2-3 starter potential but appears at least two years away from reaching it.
New York Mets
1. Fernando Martinez, OF: You
can imagine Mets scouts in the Dominican salivating watching this
highly-touted prospect named “Jesus” spray line drives from gap to gap.
After dropping Jesus in favor of Fernando and signing to a $1.4 million
contract in 2005, the 18-year-old (10/10/88) tore up Low-A Hagerstown
before he was awarded a late-season promotion to High-A St. Lucie. His
production slowed after the promotion, but he put up .279/.336/.457
combined vitals.
Paired with his comparative youth in both the leagues that Martinez played in, the 6-foot-0, 185-pound lefty was also just as productive against left-handed pitchers as he was righties, and his contact numbers were extremely impressive, as he struck out just 61 times in 315 at bats (80.6% contact). It’s hard to project when players as young as Martinez will appear at the major league level, but if he lives up to his considerable promise, the Mets may soon have another offensive messiah.
2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP: Drafted 9th
overall in 2005 and given a $3.5 million signing bonus, Pelfrey, 22,
has lived up to expectations. He started the season at High-A St.
Lucie, before moving to AA-Binghamton, then to the big league roster,
back to AAA-Norfolk, and up with the Mets again – that’s a mouthful.
His combined 2006 minor league numbers include a 10.19 K/9 ratio, 1.18
WHIP, and 0.37 HR/9.
Pelfrey was disappointing in his 21.1 inning major league regular season debut (5.49 K/9 and 1.74 WHIP) but standing 6-foot-7 and owning a fastball that touches the high nineties as well as an above-average slider, quality curve, and changeup, he is almost a lock to start next season in New York, where he should make his way to the top of the rotation in the near future.
3. Phillip Humber, RHP:
A 6-foot-4, 210-pound righty out of Rice University, Humber, 23,
underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2005 and suddenly looked like
more of a risk than the Mets bargained for when they took him third
overall in 2004.
But Humber regained his form beautifully upon his return to the mound in late-June. The Texas native went on to combine for a 9.32 K/9 ratio, 1.00 WHIP, and 0.94 HR/9 ratio with the Golf Coast League Rookie Mets (4.0 innings), High-A St. Lucie (38.0), and Double-A Binghamton (34.1). He’ll become the fixture that he was supposed to be in the Mets rotation before long.
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP:
Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $300,000 in 2003, Carrasco,
19, made huge strides in 2006. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound righty gets a
nod from us as one of the top 20 pitching prospects in the minors, and
he’s rising rapidly.
Carrasco, who works with a plus
low-90s fastball and plus changeup, fanned 8.98 batters per nine
innings, compiled a 1.05 WHIP, and gave up just 0.34 HR/9 in 159.1
innings at Single-A Lakewood. He reemerged big time from his horrific
2005 season, and again looks like a No. 2 major league starter in the
making.
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP:
While Gonzalez, 21, managed to strike out 9.66 batters per nine innings
in Double-A Reading, he also gave up 24 home runs in 154.1 innings –
tied for third most of any Double-A pitcher.
The 5-foot-11, 185-pound lefty tailed off in the second half of the season and was inconsistent for most of the year. A 2004 first round supplemental draft pick, Gonzalez may open 2007 in Reading again, and could be shifted to the bullpen if he continues to struggle. We’re having trouble finding room for him on our top 100 prospect list.
3. Michael Bourn, OF: Realize that the drop in talent behind Carrasco and Gonzalez is steep for the Phillies, with Cole Hamels moving up to the majors, Greg Golson’s season-long struggles, and Scott Mathieson going under the knife for Tommy John.
While Bourn, 23, didn’t show many signs of power in 2006, his speed (45 stolen bases in 50 attempts between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Scantron/Wilkes Barre) makes him a candidate to find major league playing time in 2007. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound centerfielder’s 2006 minor league vitals are unimpressive (.277/.356/.385) and the Phillies didn’t feel comfortable giving him playing time down the home stretch.
Washington Nationals
1. Chris Marrero, OF: Assistant General Manager Mike Rizzo has his work cut, but Marrero, 18, is a nice building block for a farm system that has just about no where to go but up.
The 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder was the 15th overall pick in the 2006 draft. Marrero put up promising .309/.374/.420 vitals in 81 Rookie Golf Coast League at bats and projects as a five-tool major league talent.
The Florida native will likely
start 2007 in Single-A Savannah, where he’ll be attempting to hit his
first professional home run. Another player in the hunt for our top
100, Marrero appears behind fellow 2006 high school draft picks Travis Snider and Billy Rowell in terms of potential, but he could really break out in 2007.
2. Kory Casto, 3B:
Closer to the majors than Marrero but trailing him in terms of ceiling,
Kasto, 24, projects as a decent major league third baseman. At 6-foot-1
and 195-pound, the left-handed hitter continued to move up one level at
a time, facing Double-A pitchers for the first time in 2006.
Kasto posted solid .272/.379/.468 vitals in 489 Double-A Harrisburg
at-bats. He’ll begin 2007 in Triple-A New Orleans and will either be
put on display as mid-season trade bait or be reconverted to the
outfield.
3. Shairon Martis, RHP:
Yes, we gave Collin Balester, Colton Willems, Matt Chico, and Garret
Mock serious looks as the No. 3 prospect in the Nationals system, but
in the end we were most sold on Martis’ 2006 season and potential.