Reading Between the Baselines: Where to Find Elite Arms

October 13, 2006
Stars come from college while superstars come from high school and the international market. Right?

Not when it comes to pitching.

Interested in where elite arms most frequently come from (college, high school, or the international market), I went back and looked at the Cy Young Award winners from the American and National Leagues over the last 20 years (1986-2005).

I’m aware that the Cy Young Award isn’t a perfect tool to evaluate each season’s top pitcher, but I think the award gives a good sample of elite pitchers.

This is what I found when I looked at the last 20 years of Cy Young data (both leagues; 40 awards):

From: college (22), high school (13), international signee (5).

Additionally, just five of the last 20 AL/NL combined twenty Cy Young Award winners (last 10 years) have been players who signed out of high school (Chris Carpenter, 2005; Roy Halladay, 2003; Tom Glavine, 1998; Pat Hentgen and John Smoltz, 1996), while players from the international market have also won the award five times.

College pitchers have been the Cy Young Award winners half the time over the last ten years.

When it comes to pitching, high school and international arms have not controlled the superstar spotlight lately; Roger Clemens (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, and 2004), Randy Johnson (1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002), Eric Gagne (2003), Barry Zito (2002), Jack McDowell (1993), and company wouldn’t allowed it.


Cy Young Notes :

  • Johan Santana, Bartolo Colon, and Santana again (2006) could become the first back-to-back-to-back internationally signed Cy Young Award winners since the award was introduced in 1956 – only one Cy Young Award was given for both leagues from 1956-1966.
  • Half of the AL Cy Young Award winners over the last 20 years have been from the AL East.
  • Two Cy Young Award winners from the last 20 years have been from Livermore, CA (Randy Johnson and Mark Davis).
  • Along with Barry Zito, Johnson is also one of two USC pitchers who have won the award in the last 10 years.


If you want to argue where most Cy Young winners will come from over the next 20 years or discuss where the most elite arms have come from over the last 20 years, email Adam at adamwfoster@gmail.com.