This week we take a look at three names which are now very familiar around the Major Leagues: Nick Markakis, Jeff Francoeur, and Jeremy Hermida.
All three of these prospects spent the majority of their preparation in the lower minor leagues; none stopped off in Triple-A. Each is an athletic outfield prospect with a very high ceiling, and each has thus far shown a different developmental path.
Let’s examine how they performed in 2006:
Nick Markakis (Nov 17, 1983) –
Despite just 124 minor league at-bats above A-ball, Markakis impressed
the Orioles in Spring Training and went on to play in 147 games as
Baltimore’s rightfielder.
Selected 7th overall in the 2003 draft, Markakis initially seemed woefully unprepared for being thrown into the deep end of the pool: His OPS was stuck around .600 after two months. He rebounded by posting an On-Base-Percentage of over .400 in June, July, and August – including a 10-homer month – before appearing to tire in September. He finished the year with a .799 OPS (.351/.448), hitting 16 home runs and 25 doubles. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound lefty struck out just 72 times with 43 walks.
Jeff Francoeur (Jan 8, 1984) – The 23rd overall pick in 2002, Francoeur jumped up from Double-A in 2005 for a heralded debut. He then played all 162 games with Atlanta in 2006, posting some extreme statistics. The good: 29 home runs and 103 RBI. The bad: a woeful .291 On-Base-Percentage, and just 23 walks against 132 strikeouts.
Francoeur really struggled on the road. His home OPS was a robust .874, compared to a feeble .617 away from Atlanta. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder did little in 2006 to change his reputation as a very streaky hitter.
Jeremy Hermida (Jan 30, 1984) – After being an early ROY favorite in Spring Training, Hermida stumbled mightily in 2006. Everyone’s favorite example of plate discipline (.398 minor-league OBP), Hermida struck out 70 times in 99 games with 33 walks. Nagging injuries plagued the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder all year, limiting him to a little more than half a season of work.
Selected 11th overall in 2002, Hermida stayed in Double-A slightly longer than Francoeur and showed equally poor pitch selection in 2006 – despite a much different reputation – with very little power. He finished his rookie season with a .700 OPS (.332/.368).
So, how do we digest the successes and failures of these three first-round talents?
Markakis
gets top marks for being the first of these prospects to really make
adjustments to big-league pitching. Despite entering ’06 with much less
acclaim than the other two Georgia prospects, Markakis patiently worked
through his initial struggles and showed the best contact rate of the
three. His power numbers were non-existent until August, but after two
good summer months Markakis started driving the ball with power to both
fields.
Francoeur’s poor contact rate, especially away from home, makes him difficult to evaluate. His problem, of course, is not simply that he doesn’t draw walks; it’s that he swings at miserable pitches. However, let’s not be too hard on a 22-year-old. His power numbers are still very impressive.
Interestingly, if we examine fellow Brave Andruw Jones, we may see a possible comparison for a wunderkind outfield prospect who pulls the ball for power. In his 10 big-league seasons, Jones has posted an OBP above .350 just four times (never above .366). If Francoeur can alter his walk rate even slightly and most importantly work his way into more fastball counts – i.e. avoid swinging at off-speed junk out of the strike zone – he could become a significant force.
Hermida’s star fell in 2006. Again injuries certainly hurt his productivity, but when Hermida was in the lineup he showed an alarming inability to lay off pitches out of the strike zone for someone so lauded for plate discipline. Additionally, he showed very little ability to drive the ball. Hermida has shown the least of these three at the major league level, despite being the most critically acclaimed.
Will he show marked improvement next spring befitting someone of his talent? Quite Possibly. His walk rate will almost certainly improve. However, 2006 showed that his pretty left-handed swing has a few holes, and that hitting the ball to all fields is more difficult to do in the National League then the Southern League.
Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.