AFL stats are just stray clumps of chalk separated from a quickly traced on-deck circle in the big scheme of things for the following reasons: 1) prospects are usually sent to “offseason” leagues to focus on developing a particular aspect of their game, not just to produce 2) players – most importantly pitchers – are worn down by the time they head to Arizona 3) history shows that the biggest success stories out of Arizona don’t usually continue on in the big leagues.
Reasons No. 1 and 2 are pretty intuitive. Some prospects go from the start of the college season in February all the way to the end of the AFL in November without much of a break – talk about a year-round commitment. And do you think Ryan Braun is really worrying a ton about improving his approach to the plate with all the defensive drills that he’s going through?
Reason No. 3 (how the biggest AFL success stories haven’t always carried on in the big leagues) is what interests me. Let’s turn back the clock to last fall…
Eric Duncan led the AFL in OPS (1.157), finished 3rd in home runs (8) and total bases (69), and 8th in batting average (.362). The 6-foot-1, 205-pound 1st round draft pick from 2003 was rewarded with Arizona Fall League MVP honors.
Duncan went on to put up a .534 OPS in 110 at-bats in Triple-A Columbus and then an .840 OPS in 206 Double-A Trenton at-bats in 2006. He hit .208 in Columbus and .248 in Trenton. Yeah, he hasn’t been nearly as successful in the AFL so far this year (.286/.317/.411 in 56 at-bats), but I’m sure a lot of followers gave Duncan a boost on their prospect lists after his solid performance last year.
You shouldn’t make the same leap in logic.
Thanks to our friends Lisa Winston and Jonathan Mayo at milb.com, here’s a list of every AFL Most Valuable Player since the award was first created in 1993:
| Year | Player |
| 2005 | Eric Duncan |
| 2004 | Chris Shelton |
| 2003 | Jason Dubois |
| 2002 | Ken Harvey |
| 2001 | Hank Blalock |
| 2000 | Donzell McDonald |
| 1999 | George Lombard |
| 1998 | Carlos Lee |
| 1997 | Rolando Arrojo |
| 1996 | Kevin Orie and Bubba Trammell |
| 1995 | Robin Jennings |
| 1994 | Mark Grudzielanek |
| 1993 | Orlando Miller |
Adam Foster hopes that he didn’t just take most of the wind out of the sails of the AFL coverage that Nick Christie is doing for Project Prospect. But he won’t be disappointed if, as a result, his HWB articles start getting more reads. Let him know if you still plan on following the AFL by sending him an email at adamwfoster@gmail.com.