In the post-Moneyball, era the strategy
of drafting high school pitching in the first round has come under fire
as being very risky, expensive, and irresponsible. The talented
lefthanded draft class of that notorious 2002 draft pokes a rather
large hole into Billy Beane’s hypothesis.
Separated in age by just four months, together Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Scott Olsen, and Adam Loewen represent the cream of the 2002 lefthanded pitching crop. Of the four, only Olsen lasted past the middle of the first round and his stuff has since proved similarly elite.
This week, we examine the respective potentials of this explosive quartet. First though, let’s examine their 2006 performances:
Scott Kazmir (Jan 24, 1984) – Kazmir represents the most experienced of the group, having started 63 game, logged 364.0 innings, and dialed up 378 strikeouts. The most attractive of his adjustments from 2005 to 2006 was his lowering of his walks per nine from 4.84 to 3.24 and consequently trimming his WHIP from 1.46 to 1.27.
The only warning sign from the 6-foot-0, 170-pound Kazmir is health. He had to shut it down in late August with shoulder stiffness after only 144.2 innings. Other than that, Kazmir’s upper-90’s fastball and brutal slider was good enough to get him invited to the 2006 all-star game and enabled him to post a fantastic line of 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts.
Cole Hamels (Dec 27, 1983) – Drafted 17th overall – two spots after Kazmir – Hamels threw just 51.0 innings in 2004 and 2005 combined, so concerns about his fragility abound. He finally stayed on the mound this season. After pitching 49.0 innings at three levels, he made his debut with the Phillies and threw another 132.1. Can the 6-foot-3, 170-pound lefty handle another heavy workload next year?
Hamels offers an explosive array of breaking pitches to go alongside his mid-90’s heater. His command of such weapons yielded 145 strikeouts vs. just 45 walks, a WHIP of 1.25, and an ERA of 4.08 – very encouraging figures given his two brittle seasons previously fighting shoulder and arm concerns.
Scott Olsen (Jan 12, 1984) – A sixth-round pick from Kalamazoo, Michigan, Olsen quietly put together a very promising 2006 campaign. While his rookie teammate Josh Johnson nearly won the N.L. ERA title (3.10), Olsen set about being a talented workhorse for the Marlins, posting a 4.04 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts in 180.2 innings. Opposing hitters batted just .239 against him and take away a disastrous May, where he got pounded for 26 earned runs in 29.2 innings, and his numbers really show well.
After elbow concerns prematurely ended his 2005 call-up, the 6-foot-4 190-pound Olsen showed excellent durability in 2006. His walk rate of 3.74 per nine innings is still a little high, but Olsen’s fastball-slider combination – and rapidly progressing changeup – brought significant success.
Adam Loewen (April 9, 1984) – Although he’s the highest selected of the quartet – No. 4 Overall – the Vancouver-native has had the slowest progression toward harnessing his ability. In 2005, while Kazmir mowed down 174 major leaguers and Olsen received a July call-up, Loewen never made it out of the Carolina League, as he posted a mundane 4.12 ERA for Single-A Bowie but also struck out 146 batters in 142.0 innings.
In 2006, Loewen turned the corner. He showed dominance in all 11 of his starts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels and flashed significant skills when called up to Baltimore.
He finished the season with a 5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 98 strikeouts and 62 walks in 112.1 major league innings. Take away his first six appearances, as he acclimated himself to such a huge jump, and the numbers look like this: 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 78 K’s, and 47 BB’s in 87 innings. In those final 16 appearences he faced the Yankees and Red Sox three times each.
How do we go about analyzing the futures of this heavily talented draft class?
In terms of sheer ability to dominate, Kazmir and Hamels rank the highest of the four.
Kazmir’s
Mid-90’s velocity and dominating slider have already made him an
all-star, and while critics point out a lack of a true third pitch,
Kazmir has been quite impressive enough. If he develops the changeup,
he’d be awfully similar to Johan Santana.
Hamels’
fastball rests mostly in the 91-94 range, but he possesses both a nasty
curve and fall-off-the-table changeup. He reached double-digits in
strikeouts four times during his rookie season, illustrating that he
dominates when in command of his three weapons. His ceiling is similar
to Kazmir’s.
However – and there is a sizeable however with
this duo – they both have durability questions. Kazmir’s the smallest
of the quartet and the severe whipping action on his fastball and
slider puts a lot of pressure on his upper body. Likewise, Hamels has
already missed two seasons with injuries to his arm, shoulder, and
back. It will be a difficult challenge for either pitcher to
conditioning his body to hold up for 200.0 innings.
By
contrast, at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Loewen looks sturdiest of the group.
The 6-foo-4, 195-pound Olsen also showed himself to be dependable this
year in Florida – Olsen’s ’05 season ended with an elbow tinge, but
otherwise his health’s been strong.
Olsen
was most impressive this season when he displayed his ability to pitch
with less than his usual 91-93 velocity. He threw five straight quality
starts in September with his fastball hovering at 90 and below,
compensating beautifully via command of his nasty slider and
ever-improving changeup.
Loewen has been
the late-bloomer of the bunch, but you can’t ignore his size or his
smooth delivery. The British Columbia native relies heavily on his
91-94 sinking fastball that he complements with a slider and curve –
the key for him is painting the corners with his sinker, though.
If Loewen can cut down his walks, he could easily evolve into an all-star. His 2006 showed that he can handle himself stuff-wise against anyone. In four starts against the Yankees, he held their vaunted lineup to just a .205 average, allowed only seven earned runs, and struck out 23 batters in 24.0 innings. At the very least, he should be a reliable workhorse. Loewen’s command will dictate his future.
Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.