Reading Between the Baselines: New Era of Defensive Stats Imminent

November 16, 2006

The deepest, darkest mystery in baseball is on the verge of being solved and most fans don’t even know it.

The mystery: What makes a good defensive player?

“Fielding is the refuge of the idiots,” ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer told Baseball America Senior Writer Alan Schwarz. “People can say anything they want, because there aren’t many statistics to refute it.”

Some of the most gifted baseball thinkers over the last 100 years have attempted to find a way to quantify defensive contributions. From fielding percentage to range factors, wisdom has advanced but not to the extent that it turns into convention. At least, not until now.

Exposed to this writer by Schwarz in his history of baseball’s statistical fascination, The Numbers Game, the technology to unveil an entirely new system for evaluating defense is on the cusp of being implemented in ballparks across the country. This technology will provide mind-boggling defensive statistics that will soon be available to the public.

“These would be the ultimate fielding statistics, delivered in real time to fans over the Internet,” Schwarz wrote in the final chapter of his book.

And this isn’t some radical set of plans that could lose its funding and then crumble into nothingness. The new method is whole-heartedly and financially backed by MLB Advanced Media – the group that runs mlb.com. You’ll eventually use these stats in your fantasy league.

Bob Bowman, President and CEO of MLB Advanced Media, is thrilled about being able to package the new numbers.

“I think we’ll have one million subscribers to this product within three years,” Bowman told Schwarz. “Easily. Easily.”

So what are these statistics and how are they going to come to life?

Starting with the former, the statistics will be captured by a system of ultra high-speed cameras that will be focused near, but not limited to, home plate – the system works similarly to QuesTec. The cameras will be able to track the speed in which the ball takes off from the bat and the angle it’s heading with only a slight margin of error.

Data from these cameras can then be put into computer models that will break each playing field down into tiny cells that will make up a grid – raster data modeling if you want to get technical. Basically, you’ll be able to look at statistics that describe how quickly a shortstop can get to a ball in the hole, glove it, and fire it to first. Or how well a center fielder can chase down line drives in the gaps.

Opening a variety of unexplored avenues, data that will tell you the average velocity batters put the ball into play against a particular pitcher will also be brought to life, giving fans velocity against numbers to use along with ERA, WHIP, and batting average against.

MLB Advanced Media hoped to unleash this data to the public in 2006, but I have still yet to catch wind of it. My guess would be that front offices have access to some of it – maybe we’ll see a trade or two at the winter meetings that seems odd but can ultimately be backed by advanced defensive evaluation tools.

Be it 2007, 2008 or even 2010, a new era of defensive statistics is just around the corner. Brace yourself because it’s going to blow people away.

 

Adam Foster feels lucky to live during a time period in which fans are being given so many tools to further their understanding of baseball. If you want to talk about the future of defensive statistics in baseball, you can email him at adamwfoster@gmail.com.