Arizona Fall League: Pitching Conclusions

November 21, 2006
Historically known as a prime locale for the best hitters in the minors to come and showcase their abilities, the Arizona Fall League initially promised a potentially course reversal in 2006.

Top pitching prospects headlined the season’s start, including several top-10 overall draft picks. Alas, nearly all the biggest names on the mound withdrew at some point due to injury, leaving the league a little barren by the end of things. However, the fall did bring a few new names to light.

Here are our concluding observations, starting first with a recap of all the notable injuries and withdrawals:



Injury Overview

Luke Hochevar – Sadly, the highly anticipated Hochevar-Pelfrey “showdown” never took place, as the Royals pulled their 2006 No. 1 pick from the AFL the week before the duo was set to square off. Hochevar initially experienced some shoulder tightness which led to his quick withdrawal. He was then examined a few days later in Kansas City with positive results.

“It's a shoulder strain and Dr. [Steve] Joyce is very encouraged," Royals general manager Dayton Moore told mlb.com. "There is nothing we can or should do .”


Phil Humber – One of the first big names told to go home rather than to risk any serious damage, Humber left soon after tests revealed shoulder tendonitis. Currently on his way back Tommy John surgery in 2005, the No. 3 overall selection of 2004 thought it was a minor issue:

“I don't think it's going to be a big deal," Humber told mlb.com. "They're just making sure nothing bad happens out of season. I wanted to stay and compete, but it's best to be safe so I came home and now I'll get ready for spring….There's nothing wrong with the muscles, though, or my labrum or my rotator cuff. Everything came back good on the MRI.”


Jeff Niemann
– The 2004 No. 4 overall pick had a very bizarre AFL . He got two short starts and pitched well — two runs allowed in 6.2 innings — but he last pitched on October 16. Apparently he had a death in the family and then picked up a shoulder strain some time over the ensuing month that will require rest.

What’s strange is that every two days for two weeks conflicting information came out as to when Niemann would start and then offering an excuse as to why he didn’t. Having also spent 2005 in rehab, Niemann only pitched just 77.1 innings in 2006 and could have used more work in Arizona.


Mike Pelfrey – The 2005 No. 9 overall pick joined his potential rotation partner Phil Humber in leaving the AFL early . Pelfrey had lingering soreness in his back and abductors since the summer and while the Mets wanted him in the AFL to develop his slider and changeup they decided to finally shut him down.

Initial reports on his secondary pitches were positive and Pelfrey had a memorable start in AFL prospect showcase before he left, loading the bases in the first inning and then striking out the side.

Top SP Performances:

Matt Albers – Albers looked fantastic up until his final start when he walked three batters and allowed three runs in a lone inning pushing his ERA up to 3.94. Disregarding that moment of wildness the right-hander looked very good.

Not a big guy (6-foot-0, 205-pounds), Albers finished his 16.0 innings of work by allowing 14 hits and striking out 9 against 6 walks. His composure was impeccable until his last outing and the Astros hope that will translate against big league hitters.


Gio Gonzalez – Although he wasn't named to the AFL all-prospect team — Albers was picked over him — Gonzalez was a top pitching prospect who both stuck around all fall and also showed his stuff. He finished his 16.0 innings with a 2.81 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and a .224 batting average against.

The left-hander did nothing to disprove those skeptical of his control, however, as he walked 10 batters after walking 81 during the season in 154.2 innings.


Troy Patton –
The Houston lefty was a streaky pitcher this fall. He showed real ability with his 17 strikeouts and just 12 hits allowed in 15.0 innings. However, he walked eight batters and gave up two runs or more three times in his nine appearances, leading to a 4.80 ERA. Patton never started a game this fall in contrast to his 27 minor league starts in 2006.


Kevin Slowey –You can never project a guy with great control but lacking powerful stuff to be the next Greg Maddux. Slowey’s a guy who has yet to disappoint anyone, however, and the AFL was no different. Slowey made eight appearances this fall, including three starts. The Twins wanted him to work in different scenarios and he never seemed out of touch.

In 19.0 innings he allowed just five earned runs — never more than one run in any outing. He gave up 19 hits but just two walks, living up to his reputation as a strike-throwing machine. Slowey struck out 12, but his lack of a power fastball has always brought skeptics to his side. Additionally, he AFL did not name him to their all-prospect team.


Jordan Tata – With all the Tigers’ young pitching prospects the 25-year-old Tata is a forgotten man. Still the 6-foot-6 righthander showed promise this fall, yielding just seven runs in 24.0 innings of work. His stuff’s not overwhelming — he struck out just 12 and had a .255 batting average against — but he is tall and he can throw fairly hard.


Top Performances: Relief

Joey Devine – The fall started dreadfully for the Braves former first-round pick. Devine allowed three runs and four walks in his two early-October appearances but after sitting out three weeks came back to finish strong.

In five November innings, he struck out seven and allowed a single run on two hits and three walks. Devine’s fallen in the Braves eyes this year but the stuff is still there — he needs to regain his command in order to get another shot as the Braves closer job.


Jonathan Meloan – Although overshadowed within a deep Dodgers farm system that featured several big-name prospects, the 22-year-old came to the AFL and reminded everyone who he is — one of the top relievers in the minor leagues. After striking out an astounding 91 hitters in just 52.0 inning this year, the 6-foot-3 right-hander stayed hot in the AFL.

Meloan pitched 18.1 innings over 14 appearances, yielding just four runs, 12 hits, and a .194 batting average against. He struck out 21 but walked eight — the only blemish on his fall resume.


Billy Sadler – Sadler nearly had a perfect fall, as he pitched 13 straight scoreless innings before finally allowing two runs and four hits in his final outing. Although a bit under-sized at 6-0, Sadler overwhelmed hitters in the AFL as he struck out 22 against just four walks.

Just exactly how successful he can be in the majors remains a question mark for the 25-year-old Giants prospect, but a successful fall following a positive season does raise his stature a bit as a possible major league setup man.

 

Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.