This is the sixth installment of our seven part series on the top prospects at every position. We’ve ranked our Top 5 catchers, Top 5 First Basemen, Top 5 Second Basemen, Top 5 Shortstops, and Top 5 Third Basemen thus far.
Note: A player must have rookie status entering the 2007 season in order to qualify for our lists. We rank players based on their potential and the likelihood they will reach that potential.
1. Delmon Young, TB:
Young, 21, grew up idolizing Vladimir Guerrero, a player who he could
someday match talent-wise – he already has the arm. The No. 1 overall
pick in the 2003 draft, Young put up .316/.341./.447 vitals in 342
at-bats at Triple-A Durham only to better himself with .328/.349/.492
vitals in 122 at-bats with the Devil Rays.
Young’s weakness to inside fastballs shows in his 0.246 Triple-A and 0.043 MLB walk-to-strikeout ratios, but it’s pretty tough to find any other holes in his game. The 6-foot-3, 205-pounder will be a frontrunner for the 2007 Rookie of the Year Award. Don’t expect him to last very long in your fantasy draft either.
2. Billy Butler, KC:
One of the top prospects in the minors, Butler, 20, once again
showcased his amazing hitting ability in 2006. The Royals 2004 first
round selection has put up great numbers no matter where he has been
(.331/.388/.499 last year in 477 Double-A at-bats), helping him ascend
through the Royals’ system quickly.
With great power and an exceptional ability to hit for average, Butler is viewed a potential franchise player and a force in the middle of a Major League lineup. He may not have much speed or great defensive abilities – although he did make some big defensive strides in 2006 – but Butler’s bat alone will make him an above-average major leaguer. And he may be mashing for the Royals sometime in 2007.
3. Jay Bruce, CIN: Performance-wise, Bruce, 19, has been one of the best high school hitters out of a 2005 draft that also included Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Upton. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound lefty hit .291/.355/.516 with 42 doubles, 16 home runs, and 19 stolen bases in 28 attempts (67.86%) in 444 A-Dayton at-bats.
Bruce will likely start 2007 in High-A Sarasota. The Reds hope he can be Ken Griffey Jr.'s successor in center field. By the time he breaks into the majors, Bruce could be one of the top five prospects in the game.
4. Andrew McCutchen, PIT:
McCutchen, 19, has been what Justin Upton was supposed to be: a
five-tool threat who is as exciting to watch as anyone in the minors.
The Pirates centerfielder of the future hit .298/.377/.445 with 24
doubles, 17 home runs, and 23 stolen bases in 31 attempts (74.19%)
between Single-A Hickory (453 at-bats) and Double-A Altoona (78
at-bats) – he skipped High-A Lynchburg.
Already striking out a fair amount more than he walks, McCutchen figures to have a little trouble adjusting to the upper levels of the minors, as Double-A and Triple-A pitchers will likely start exploiting his lack of plate discipline (72.97% contact ratio; 2.50 K/BB rate). Still, the speedy McCutchen is progressing quite well and is in our mix for a position as one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.
5. Cameron Maybin, DET:
A five-tool prospect, Maybin, 19, excelled with the bat
(.304/.387/.457) and showed blistering speed on the base paths (27
steals in 34 attempts) in Single-A West Michigan – and he was playing
in a park that favors pitchers. His season earned him the Midwest
League Prospect of the Year Award as well as Tigers Minor League Player
of the Year.
It’s a little early to peg him as strikeout prone (116 strikeouts in 385 at bats, 69.87% contact ratio), but even if he can’t start making more consistent contact, he’ll have trouble against the crafty arms in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Maybin already projects as a productive every-day major league center fielder. He still has a ways to go in the Tigers’ system but it wouldn’t be unrealistic for the them to let him skip a level to start 2007 in Double-A Erie.
6. Chris Young, ARI:
Young, 23, did not disappoint in his new franchise – he came to the
Diamondbacks in the Javier Vazquez deal. His .276/.363/.532 line
brought him from Triple-A Tucson across the desert to Phoenix by the
middle of August. He was on the verge of going 20/20 in Tucson before
he was called up, with 20 home runs to go along with 17 steals in 22
attempts (77.3%).
In line for a starting job in 2007, Young
looks like a very special talent. He has been compared to Carlos
Beltran, Eric Davis, and Mike Cameron – of course, these are all fairly
upper end comparisons, though.
7. Carlos Gonzalez, ARI:
Signed in 2002 out of Venezuela, Gonzalez, 21, started the season in
High-A Lancaster and finished in Double-A Tennessee. He put up a
combined line of .289/.348/.543 and launched 23 bombs to go along with
41 doubles, while stealing 16 bases in 24 attempts (66.7%). Gonzalez
would be higher in our rankings if he didn’t strike out 25% of the
time.
8. Fernando Martinez, NYM: Known as "Pequeño”
in the Arizona Fall League, Martinez, 18, is the top teenage Dominican
prospect in the minors. After signing to a $1.4 million contract in
2005, he tore up Low-A Hagerstown before being awarded a late-season
promotion to High-A St. Lucie. His production slowed after the
promotion, but he put up .279/.336/.457 combined vitals.
With his comparative youth in both the leagues that he played in, the 6-foot-0, 185-pound lefthanded hitter’s contact numbers were extremely impressive, as he struck out just 61 times in 315 at bats (80.6% contact). It’s hard to project when players as young as Martinez will appear at the major league level, but if he lives up to his considerable promise, the Mets may soon have another offensive messiah.
9. Justin Upton, ARI: The No. 1 overall
pick from the 2005 draft, Upton, 19, didn’t put up great numbers in
Single-A South Bend (.263/.343/.413). He doubled 28 times, hit 12 home
runs, and stole 15 bases in 22 attempts (68.2%).
Upton put
together a solid 0.542 BB/K ratio and he still owns the record for the
largest signing bonus in amateur draft history ($6.1 million). His
brother (B.J.) played in Single-A and Double-A in his first
professional season. Justin will likely be eased through the minors and
kick 2007 off in High-A Lancaster, where his prospect stock could soak
with a few good months.
10. Jose Tabata, NYY:
Tabata has the tools to become an All-Star and maybe even a MVP-caliber
player, but he’s still just a 5-foot-11, 160-pound 18-year-old.
His .298/.377/.420 vitals in 319 Single-A Charleston at-bats show that he is primed to climb to the next level in the Yankees’ organization (High-A Tampa), where he’ll continue to attempt to use a plate approach that is beyond his years to compensate for playing with much older competition.
Check back next Friday (12/1) for our list of the top 10 starting pitchers in the minors.