So three big league ball players walk into a bar. One has the 2006
Cy Young Award under his belt, posting 19 victories to go along with a
2.77 ERA. Another paired an imposing .347 batting average with an
equally impressive .429 on-base percentage, becoming the first catcher
in American League history to win the batting title. The last hit 34
home runs and batted in 130 runs hitting in the heart of the order.
Quick: which two are you hoping to meet?
We
live in an era that’s obsessed with expanded statistics, sabermetrics,
and anything else that seems like a good idea at the time, but nothing
outweighs baseball’s favorite moment: The home run.
Here’s
my take on what it takes to be a true MVP. First, you need to address
the age-old question: what does the word “valuable” mean in the
equation? Well, I don’t really see why this is a problem. Valuable
refers to something that has considerable worth, or importance, or
qualities of respect, and so on. Outstanding you say? Superiority,
excellence, etc.
It’s called the Most Valuable Player – not
Most Outstanding Player. I want the guy who led his team to the fall
classic. But that eliminates five of the top six home run hitters in
the league, including David Ortiz and his 54 bombs. Good. Absolutely no
exceptions. The Red Sox weren’t playing once October rolled into town;
they’d still be sitting on their couches at home without Ortiz and his
outstanding season. Give the man a nice MOP award or any other cleaning
device of your choice as a parting gift and allow him to move along.
So here are my two rules:
Number 1 – thou shalt lead team to Promised Land.
Number 2 – no pitchers. Last time I checked, hitters don’t win the Cy Young; keep them separate.
Yes, I have decoded this so called “process” of voting for the Most
Valuable Player. Seeing as nothing regarding the current format seems
to be working, here’s how I think it should be done.
This
format leaves only the most valuable position players in the league
eligible for the honor. What a novel concept. So let’s make an American
League Player bank to pull from – Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, and Twins
only.
Everyone was too busy complaining about how Alex
Rodriguez and his .290 BA, 35 HR, 121 RBI, and .390 OBP sucked, so I
guess we’ll just leave him off the list.
As impressive as a
.413 OBP and 37 homers are, a player needs to have at least half their
games played in the field, not as a designated hitter, if they want
their name on the list with a .253 BA. Sorry, Jason Giambi.
Derek
Jeter: .343 BA was second in the league, 97 RBI from the number two
hole, and Gold Glove defense at the game’s toughest defensive position.
We have our lone Yankee.
On to Detroit. No 30 HR hitters
and only one regular with both an average over .300 and an on-base
percentage at .400, but can Carlos Guillen stand up to Jeter? Well, no.
The Tigers made their run as a complete team with no star power,
therefore, no MVP candidate. No crying in baseball so stop complaining
Tiger faithful.
The A’s are easy. Were there any hitters in
the Oakland lineup not named Frank Thomas down the stretch? A strong
.381 OBP, 39 HR and 114 RBI. Throw the Big Hurt in the equation along
with Jeter.
So now it’s the Twins turn. No Johan, but hey,
he got some hardware already. Anytime a catcher hits .347, he’s in the
mix. When he’s Joe Mauer, no further explanation needed. Justin Morneau
did have a strong season, but is 34 HR and 121 RBI enough when you bat
behind hitters like Luis Castillo and Mauer – even Michael Cuddyer? You
have to throw him in though; Morneau definitely earned consideration.
This gives us our final four: Derek Jeter, Frank Thomas, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau. Let the bartering begin.
Now
it’s time to look at the whole picture - not just the planet’s favorite
explosion of instant gratification, but let’s start with the long ball
just for kicks.
Match 1a: Frank Thomas vs. Justin Morneau
. On-base numbers are too close to bother comparing (.381 for Thomas,
.375 for Morneau). Thomas has the advantage in home runs 39 vs. 34, so
history says we may as well stop the investigation here. But Morneau is
ahead in RBI (130 to 114) and has a rather large 51-point batting
average advantage over Thomas, despite the lower OBP.
Morneau
and the Twins were knocked out in the first round by the Oakland A’s,
where Frank Thomas single handedly led his team to the ALCS, hitting
two homeruns and reaching base seven times as the A’s swept the Twins. Thomas wins.
Match 1b: Joe Mauer vs. Derek Jeter
. These two had comparable years as well. Mauer’s batting average was
four points higher. Jeter had one more home run. Mauer had a 12 and
24-point edge in OBP and SLG, respectively, which isn’t huge but it’s
noticeable. But Jeter’s 13 RBI advantage is noteworthy as well.
So
that proved absolutely nothing. Whew, thankfully the formula is
perfect. These two stars went to the Promised Land, leaving plenty more
be overanalyzed here as well.
The Twins fell in the first
round, but it wasn’t because of Mauer and his strong playoff .417 OBP.
Jeter and the Yankees fell out of the hunt early as well, but he mashed
like a man on fire and was on base .529 percent of the time. As
impossible as it may seem, Jeter takes the edge. Sorry Joe, you tried your best, it just wasn’t good enough.
Final Match: Thomas vs. Jeter.
So this leaves us with two very different, very valuable stars, giving
you the chance to see what truly is most important – or most valuable
to a team’s success.
It’s unfair to compare some of these
numbers. A 6-foot-5, 275-pound behemoth better significantly out-homer
a shortstop. A gold glove infielder vs. an aging designated hitter
doesn’t exactly seem like the best way to evaluate these two either.
Frank
Thomas blasted 39 bombs and put up a .545 slugging percentage for our
home run happy American pastime. Well, Jeter’s .483 SLG is much closer
to Thomas than it may seem – remember doubles and triples are part of
the equation too. And just look at these two bodies, who do you think
should slug higher? A human being or a tank? So of course Thomas gets
the advantage here.
Let’s look at the most telling
statistic of all: on-base percentage. While Frank Thomas has nothing to
hang his head about with regard to his .381 OBP, Derek Jeter’s .417
mark gives him the edge.
It’s always easy to give the tiebreaker to the guy with the home runs, but this one isn’t close. There were 11 hitters with more homers than Thomas this season – for reference, 23 had more than Morneau. The total package supplied by Jeter quite simply makes him the player most valuable to his team. Derek Jeter: your 2006 MVP.
Conclusions:
So how on earth
does a number five hitter with 34 home runs steal the AL MVP? Easy.
Justin Morneau is a power-hitting first baseman.
Johan
Santana and Joe Mauer had larger than life seasons for the Minnesota
Twins. Forget about the American League, Morneau wasn’t even the Most
Valuable Player on his own team.
Derek Jeter only managed
14 home runs of his own. So yes, Frank Thomas was better than the
Yankee shortstop for 25 at-bats during the 2006 season. And Morneau
held the edge on Jeter 20 times. So the two combined to only outplay
Jeter in 45 at-bats.
Thus, Jeter was more valuable than both Thomas and Morneau, 96.4 and 97.1 percent of the time respectively, which was only 679 “other” official plate appearances for Jeter. The voters couldn’t possibly screw up indisputable statistical evidence like that... right?
Adam Loberstein will gladly argue why
studying home runs is a total waste of time. Simply choose to waste
your time more efficiently by emailing him at adamloberstein@gmail.com.