Most Vulnerable Player

November 27, 2006

So three big league ball players walk into a bar. One has the 2006 Cy Young Award under his belt, posting 19 victories to go along with a 2.77 ERA. Another paired an imposing .347 batting average with an equally impressive .429 on-base percentage, becoming the first catcher in American League history to win the batting title. The last hit 34 home runs and batted in 130 runs hitting in the heart of the order.

Quick: which two are you hoping to meet?

We live in an era that’s obsessed with expanded statistics, sabermetrics, and anything else that seems like a good idea at the time, but nothing outweighs baseball’s favorite moment: The home run.

Here’s my take on what it takes to be a true MVP. First, you need to address the age-old question: what does the word “valuable” mean in the equation? Well, I don’t really see why this is a problem. Valuable refers to something that has considerable worth, or importance, or qualities of respect, and so on. Outstanding you say? Superiority, excellence, etc.

It’s called the Most Valuable Player – not Most Outstanding Player. I want the guy who led his team to the fall classic. But that eliminates five of the top six home run hitters in the league, including David Ortiz and his 54 bombs. Good. Absolutely no exceptions. The Red Sox weren’t playing once October rolled into town; they’d still be sitting on their couches at home without Ortiz and his outstanding season. Give the man a nice MOP award or any other cleaning device of your choice as a parting gift and allow him to move along.

So here are my two rules:

Number 1 – thou shalt lead team to Promised Land.

Number 2 – no pitchers. Last time I checked, hitters don’t win the Cy Young; keep them separate.


Yes, I have decoded this so called “process” of voting for the Most Valuable Player. Seeing as nothing regarding the current format seems to be working, here’s how I think it should be done.

This format leaves only the most valuable position players in the league eligible for the honor. What a novel concept. So let’s make an American League Player bank to pull from – Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, and Twins only.

Everyone was too busy complaining about how Alex Rodriguez and his .290 BA, 35 HR, 121 RBI, and .390 OBP sucked, so I guess we’ll just leave him off the list.

As impressive as a .413 OBP and 37 homers are, a player needs to have at least half their games played in the field, not as a designated hitter, if they want their name on the list with a .253 BA. Sorry, Jason Giambi.

Derek Jeter: .343 BA was second in the league, 97 RBI from the number two hole, and Gold Glove defense at the game’s toughest defensive position. We have our lone Yankee.

On to Detroit. No 30 HR hitters and only one regular with both an average over .300 and an on-base percentage at .400, but can Carlos Guillen stand up to Jeter? Well, no. The Tigers made their run as a complete team with no star power, therefore, no MVP candidate. No crying in baseball so stop complaining Tiger faithful.

The A’s are easy. Were there any hitters in the Oakland lineup not named Frank Thomas down the stretch? A strong .381 OBP, 39 HR and 114 RBI. Throw the Big Hurt in the equation along with Jeter.

So now it’s the Twins turn. No Johan, but hey, he got some hardware already. Anytime a catcher hits .347, he’s in the mix. When he’s Joe Mauer, no further explanation needed. Justin Morneau did have a strong season, but is 34 HR and 121 RBI enough when you bat behind hitters like Luis Castillo and Mauer – even Michael Cuddyer? You have to throw him in though; Morneau definitely earned consideration.

This gives us our final four: Derek Jeter, Frank Thomas, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau. Let the bartering begin.

Now it’s time to look at the whole picture - not just the planet’s favorite explosion of instant gratification, but let’s start with the long ball just for kicks.

Match 1a: Frank Thomas vs. Justin Morneau . On-base numbers are too close to bother comparing (.381 for Thomas, .375 for Morneau). Thomas has the advantage in home runs 39 vs. 34, so history says we may as well stop the investigation here. But Morneau is ahead in RBI (130 to 114) and has a rather large 51-point batting average advantage over Thomas, despite the lower OBP.

Morneau and the Twins were knocked out in the first round by the Oakland A’s, where Frank Thomas single handedly led his team to the ALCS, hitting two homeruns and reaching base seven times as the A’s swept the Twins. Thomas wins.

Match 1b: Joe Mauer vs. Derek Jeter . These two had comparable years as well. Mauer’s batting average was four points higher. Jeter had one more home run. Mauer had a 12 and 24-point edge in OBP and SLG, respectively, which isn’t huge but it’s noticeable. But Jeter’s 13 RBI advantage is noteworthy as well.

So that proved absolutely nothing. Whew, thankfully the formula is perfect. These two stars went to the Promised Land, leaving plenty more be overanalyzed here as well.

The Twins fell in the first round, but it wasn’t because of Mauer and his strong playoff .417 OBP. Jeter and the Yankees fell out of the hunt early as well, but he mashed like a man on fire and was on base .529 percent of the time. As impossible as it may seem, Jeter takes the edge. Sorry Joe, you tried your best, it just wasn’t good enough.

Final Match: Thomas vs. Jeter. So this leaves us with two very different, very valuable stars, giving you the chance to see what truly is most important – or most valuable to a team’s success.

It’s unfair to compare some of these numbers. A 6-foot-5, 275-pound behemoth better significantly out-homer a shortstop. A gold glove infielder vs. an aging designated hitter doesn’t exactly seem like the best way to evaluate these two either.

Frank Thomas blasted 39 bombs and put up a .545 slugging percentage for our home run happy American pastime. Well, Jeter’s .483 SLG is much closer to Thomas than it may seem – remember doubles and triples are part of the equation too. And just look at these two bodies, who do you think should slug higher? A human being or a tank? So of course Thomas gets the advantage here.

Let’s look at the most telling statistic of all: on-base percentage. While Frank Thomas has nothing to hang his head about with regard to his .381 OBP, Derek Jeter’s .417 mark gives him the edge.

It’s always easy to give the tiebreaker to the guy with the home runs, but this one isn’t close. There were 11 hitters with more homers than Thomas this season – for reference, 23 had more than Morneau. The total package supplied by Jeter quite simply makes him the player most valuable to his team. Derek Jeter: your 2006 MVP.

 
Conclusions:
So how on earth does a number five hitter with 34 home runs steal the AL MVP? Easy. Justin Morneau is a power-hitting first baseman.

Johan Santana and Joe Mauer had larger than life seasons for the Minnesota Twins. Forget about the American League, Morneau wasn’t even the Most Valuable Player on his own team.

Derek Jeter only managed 14 home runs of his own. So yes, Frank Thomas was better than the Yankee shortstop for 25 at-bats during the 2006 season. And Morneau held the edge on Jeter 20 times. So the two combined to only outplay Jeter in 45 at-bats.

Thus, Jeter was more valuable than both Thomas and Morneau, 96.4 and 97.1 percent of the time respectively, which was only 679 “other” official plate appearances for Jeter. The voters couldn’t possibly screw up indisputable statistical evidence like that... right?


Adam Loberstein will gladly argue why studying home runs is a total waste of time. Simply choose to waste your time more efficiently by emailing him at adamloberstein@gmail.com.