From what we’ve heard, the level of competition in the Hawaii Winter Baseball League was around High-A. So players who stood out on the island may be on the fast track to Double-A and could even jump straight to it.
The talent level in the HWB rivals that of the Arizona Fall League, but most baseball fans don’t know many of the young players who were sent to Hawaii. To get you up to speed or to see how our thoughts compare to yours, let’s look back at the players on the Project Prospect 2006 Hawaii Winter Baseball Watch List and add a couple players who put themselves in the picture.
Pitchers
Japanese
pitchers owned five of the league’s top 10 ERAs, adding fuel to a
talented group of minor league starters and relievers who limited just
about every hitter who stepped up to the plate at least 100 times to a
sub-.300 batting average. But the league’s strikeout leader board was
home to three minor league pitchers – two of them were on our watch
list.
Let’s go over the three starting pitchers from the
league who we think could be above-average big league arms. Keep in
mind that like the AFL, Hawaii didn’t have a wealth of starting
pitching talent, as teams are very conservative with their young arms.
Listed: Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy
Added: Rick Vanden Hurk
Joba Chamberlain, SP (NYY): 46K/3BB, 3HR, 0.82 WHIP, 2.63 ERA, 37.2 IP
If
the Yankees were higher on Ian Kennedy than Joba Chamberlain six months
ago, that has surely changed by now. Chamberlain, 21, showed that he
can dominate hitters in his professional debut this fall with a 10.98
K/9 ratio – he struck out 10.28 per nine last year in college.
The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder will likely start the 2007 season at High-A Tampa. By midseason, he could be among the minor league leaders for strikeouts, WHIP, and games started in equatorial regions over the last year.
Ian Kennedy, SP (NYY): 45K/11BB, 0 HR, 1.45 WHIP, 4.45 ERA, 30.1 IP
The
fact that fans keep going back to Kennedy’s sophomore year in college
shows that the former USC Trojan may never become the frontline major
league starter that many anticipated a few years ago. He missed a lot
of bats (13.37 K/9) and didn’t give up a bomb all fall, so maybe the
draft did distract him. But the 6-foot-0, 190-pounder did give up his
share of hits and runs.
Kennedy, 22, will likely start 2007 in High-A Tampa with Chamberlain. The two will make one of the best 1-2 punches in the minors. Still, Kennedy has a lot to prove before he starts getting recognized as a guy with more than middle of the rotation potential.
Rick Vanden Hurk, SP (FLA): 63K/17BB, 3 HR, 1.00 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 40.0 IP
Padres’
outfielder Will Venable, who hit .330 and won the league’s batting
title, told MLB Radio that “The Big Dutch Guy” was one of the toughest
pitchers he faced in Hawaii. Given that Vanden Hurk, 21, didn’t allow
hits to 93.8% of the batters he faced, Venable probably speaks for
every hitter who played on the island.
A 6-foot-5,
190-pound righty born in Eindhoven (Netherlands), Vanden Hurk signed
with the Marlins as a free agent in 2002. On the road back from Tommy
John surgery, he had pitched just 53.2 innings over the last two
seasons prior to being sent to Hawaii.
He’s still a ways from being anyone who we’d quite put on a list of the game’s top 150 prospects, but Vanden Hurk has a pretty amazing background and he could some day pitch in the big leagues. Keep an eye on him.
Hitters
Because
many of them were regularly facing pitchers who can get hitters out
with more than a fastball for the first time, we think hitting stats
from Hawaii are especially telling. Of course, it’s tough to really
extract much from 90 at-bats, but there were a few performances that
caught our attention.
Listed: Lorenzo Cain, Eric
Campbell, Mike Carp, Koby Clemens, Jeff Clement, Blake DeWitt, Dexter
Fowler, John Mayberry Jr., Van Pope, Nate Schierholtz, Eric Young Jr.
Added: Will Venable
Lorenzo Cain, OF (MIL): .231/.274/.308, 6BB/27K, 5 XBH, 12 SB/1 CS, 117 at-bats
Cain, 20, showed that he’s not that close to being ready for Double-A. A talented prospect with the ability to hit for power and steal bases, the 6-foot-2, 165-pounder is a least a few years away from making a big league impact, but he could be a top 50 overall prospect by then.
Eric Campbell, 2B/3B (ATL): .250/.324/.400, 7BB/6K, 7 XBH, 60 at-bats
The Braves’ 2004 second round draft pick struggled in Hawaii after hitting 22 home runs and putting up a .852 OPS in Single-A Rome. He may not have enough power first third base and Atlanta is well aware of that, as they had him playing second and third this fall (10 starts at 2B vs. 4 at 3B).
Mike Carp, 1B (NYM): .299/.361/.402, 8BB/27K, 8 XBH, 97 at-bats
Carp, 20, finished fourth on the island in batting average, but he hardly hit for any power. A 9th round draft pick from 2004, the 6-foot-2, 205-pounder had a great season in High-A St. Lucie, so he was likely ticketed for Double-A prior to being sent to Hawaii. We see him slowing a lot against more advanced pitching – he’s still probably three years away from the show.
Koby Clemens, 3B (HOU): .196/.268/.295, 9BB/36K, 7 XBH, 112 at-bats
If his pop wasn’t one of the best pitchers in baseball history, it’s hard to imagine Clemens, 20, being considered much of a prospect. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder combined to hit .220 with 41BB/103K in 418 at-bats between Single-A Lexington and Hawaii. There are probably quite a few people in the game who still think he should have gone to Texas.
Jeff Clement, C (SEA): .189/.204/.321, zero BB/13K, 3 XBH, 53 at-bats
Part of a four-catcher shuffle on a team that only played five games a week, Clement hardly had a chance to get into a rhythm, but his numbers dance like a peg-legged fisherman on melting ice. Another former Trojan, Clement, 23, still has star potential, though there’ll be a Seattle search party looking for it if it hasn’t poked its head in professional baseball by next season.
Blake DeWitt, 2B/3B (LAD): .216/.294/.289, 9BB/30K, 4 XBH, 97 at-bats
Similar to Campbell, DeWitt, 21, is far from a lock to stick at third base due to power concerns and he didn’t help his cause in Hawaii. Look for the 5-foot-11, 175-pound lefthanded hitter to start 2007 in Double-A Jacksonville and play mainly at second base.
Dexter Fowler, OF (COL): .266/.380/.376, 18BB/30K, 9 XBH, 10 SB/4 CS, 109 at-bats
The numbers may not leap out at you, but Fowler, 20, was actually one of the better hitters in Hawaii. His stock is some of the best of all lesser-known outfielders in the minors. If Fowler isn’t owned in your dynasty league yet, you should pounce on him asap. He could develop into a player similar to Carl Crawford.
John Mayberry Jr., OF (TEX): .318/.388/.545, 9BB/21K, 13 XBH, 88 at-bats
His
team didn’t make the playoffs, but John Mayberry Jr. was still the most
valuable player in Hawaii. We saw him in college and weren’t that
impressed. Now it’s hard not to be impressed.
Mayberry, 22, still has a ways to go and he isn’t top 100 prospect material yet, though he’s knocking on the door. If he keeps up this kind of success when he’s in Double-A Frisco next season, Mayberry could be one of the best hitters in the minors. Don’t say that we failed to tell you he’s on the rise.
Van Pope, 3B (ATL): .190/.253/.266, 6BB/19K, 4 XBH, 79 at-bats
We’d recommend selling your Van Pope stock for Eric Campbell or John Mayberry Jr. stock.
Nate Schierholtz, OF (SF): .248/.289/.425, 5BB/24K, 11 XBH, 4 SB/0 CS, 113 at-bats
While his K/BB ratio isn’t pretty, Schierholtz, 22, definitely has pop – enough to help the Giants as soon as next year. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound lefthanded hitter doesn’t look like more than a No. 3 outfielder, but he’s putting together the kind of performances that will make him a big leaguer. Schierholtz will try to build a case for a big league call-up in Triple-A Fresno.
Will Venable, OF (SD): .330/.390/.473, 8BB/22K, 11 XBH, 91 at-bats
A seventh rounder out of Princeton, Venable, 23, exceeded our expectations in Single-A Fort Wayne and again in Hawaii, so we’re done doubting him for a little while. He’s starting to look more deadly than Chase Headly in the Padres organization.
Eric Young Jr., 2B (COL): .287/.348/.366, 7BB/14K, 7 XBH, 14 SB/5 CS, 101 at-bats
Astounding the league with his drive and work ethic, Young Jr., 21, has put together a campaign that has made him top second base prospects in the minors. Judging by his Hawaii performance, he could make a smooth transition to Double-A Tulsa and become the most coveted speedster in the minors (87 sb in 2006 at Single-A Ashville).
Adam Foster can be reached at adamwfoster@gmail.com.