This is the final installment of our seven part series on the top prospects at every position. We’ve ranked our Top 5 Catchers, Top 5 First Basemen, Top 5 Second Basemen, Top 5 Shortstops, Top 5 Third Basemen, and Top 10 Outfielders to date.
Note: A player must have rookie status entering the 2007 season in order to qualify for our lists. We rank players based on their potential and the likelihood they will reach that potential.
1. Phil Hughes, NYY: A Red Sox fan growing up, Hughes already has an arsenal of pitches that could make him a solid major league starter. The 6-foot-5, 225-pound righty dominated High-A Tampa (9.00 K/9, 0.70 WHIP) and Double-A Trenton (10.71, 0.91) in just his second full season in the minors.
He’ll likely start 2007 in Triple-A Scanton-Wilkes Barre but could be the first pitcher the Yankees call on in the event of an injury. If no one gets hurt or someone is struggling, Hughes, 20, should push for a spot in the rotation by midseason.
2. Homer Bailey, CIN: Bailey, 20, has a competitive spirit and the kind of arm that makes hitters look like they are swinging palm trees through peanut butter. He dominated both High-A (10.06 K/9, 1.00 WHIP) and Double-A (10.19, 1.15) hitters last season with his 97 MPH fastball and improving changeup.
A 6-foot-4, 205-pound righty, Bailey only ranks lower than Hughes for us because he has fewer Double-A innings and he walks more batters. But like Hughes, Bailey has a very good chance of getting starts in the major leagues next season and he will make an immediate impact.
3. Mike Pelfrey, NYM: Still a little raw after signing out of Wichita State in January of 2006, the 6-foot-7, 210-pounder can touch 97 MPH and has shown hints of masterful command. His performances in the upper levels of the minor leagues and with the Mets last season were a little discouraging, but Pelfrey, 22, is the type of competitor who you can expect to thrive on redeeming himself.
Still desperately in need of starting pitching, the Mets may give the huge righty a opening day rotation spot, through he would probably be best served with another half season in the minors. The team could let Pelfrey get a few minor league starts before bringing him up to be its fifth starter, if that’s the case keep a very close eye on him. No matter where he starts, Pelfrey will be an effective starter next season.
4. Scott Elbert, LAD: The best lefty in the minors – especially when Andrew Miller was called up to the big leagues – Elbert, 21, made a habit of striking out High-A and Double-A batters last season (combined 10.66 K/9). His lack of control (5.24 BB/9) and propensity for giving up the long ball (15 in 146.0 innings) are the main reasons why he is a tier below Bailey and Hughes.
A 6-foot-2, 190-pounder, Elbert could stand to show a little improvement in Double-A before he moves up to Triple-A Las Vegas. Regardless of where the Dodgers start him, he’ll likely make at least a handful of major league starts in 2007.
5. Andrew Miller, DET: Likely destined to open the year in the minor leagues, Miller, 21, could benefit from stretching his arm out against some low-level professional hitters. His 98 MPH fastball will send many of back to them dugout bewildered.
A 6-foot-6, 175-pound lefty who improved his K/9 ratio every year in college, Miller stands a good chance of being back with the Tigers again come September, only this time he should be starting.
6. Yovani Gallardo, MIL: The 2006 minor league strikeout leader (188), Gallardo is well on his way to become a major league starter. We’ve heard the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder compared to John Smoltz but we aren’t that high on him just yet.
Gallardo, 20, throws as hard as 96 MPH with a great repertoire of secondary pitches. He won’t miss quite as many bats as the top five players on this list, but the 2004 second rounder knows how to pitch and will likely show off his talent to the fans in Milwaukee next September.
7. Matt Garza, MIN: As impressed as we are by Garza’s amazing ascension through the minors, we’re just as curious about how major league hitters will match up against him after they’ve seen him a few times. Garza does have impressive stuff (94 MPH) fastball and he showed it by posting a combined 10.25 K/9 ratio between High-A Fort Myers and Triple-A Rochester.
Having pitched exactly 50.0 innings in 2006, Garza will enter 2007 as a rookie in Minnesota, where he’ll look to improve upon his 1.70 WHIP, 6.84 K/9 debut. Between Garza, Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, and possibly Phil Hughes, the American Rookie of the Year race will be full of excitement.
8. Tim Lincecum, SF: Constantly under criticism for his 5-foot-10, 155-pound build and abnormal windup, Lincecum just keeps going out and proving himself too dominant to ignore (15.60 K/9 and 0.90 WHIP between Low-A Salem-Keizer and High-A San Jose). Pedro Martinez is only 5-foot-11, 170-pounds, so guys this size can be frontline major league starters.
Lincecum will attempt to continue to shred through the minors with a likely start at Double-A Connecticut followed by a quick promotion to Triple-A Fresno. He’ll be ready to help the Giants out as a starter whenever they call upon him.
9. Adam Miller, CLE: Slowed by a damaged elbow ligament in 2005, Miller regained almost every ounce of momentum that he lost that year by putting up an impressive 2006 season. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound first round supplemental pick struck out 9.20 batters per nine and maintained a 1.12 WHIP in Double-A Akron.
Miller’s appearance this low on our list of minor league starting pitchers gives an indicator of how talented the current group of front-of-the-rotation prospects is. After some brushing up in Triple-A, he’ll likely bring his 97 MPH fastball to Cleveland at some point in 2007.
10. Donald Veal, CHC: Veal, 22, led the minors with a .174 batting average against in 2006. And the 6-foot-3, 200-pound southpaw has still not completely rediscovered his curveball after not being able to throw it while recovering from a torn labrum.
The Arizona native still has to prove himself in the upper levels of the minors (pitched in Single-A and High-A last season). With a call-up here and some dominant outings there, he could move at least midway up this list by the end of next season.
Check back next Friday (12/8) as we begin our top rookie series with our top three rookie catchers for 2007.