Reading Between the Baselines: Project Prospect Conversations

I’ve been really impressed with the in-depth conversations that have gone on in the Project Prospect Forums. So I’ve decided to feature some questions and perspectives from these discussions in a column that I’m going to start writing on a regular basis... Project Prospect Conversations. This week, I’ll highlight two debates that have gone on recently. 1) Who do you think is the better prospect: Mike Pelfrey or Matt Garza? 2) In a keeper league, how would you rank Josh Barfield, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, and Rickie Weeks?

 

Pelfrey vs. Garza

Mike Pelfrey and Matt Garza both made their major league debuts almost within a year of being drafted in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft. Although Pelfrey was taken 16 picks before Garza (9^th overall vs. 25^th), Garza gained some development ground on him by signing right out of the draft, while Pelfrey waited until January of 2006.

Garza (6-foot-4, 185-pounds) agreed to a $1.35 million bonus and tackled both Rookie-Elizabethton and Single-A Beloit in 2005 before earning a 2006 opening day rotation spot with High-A Fort Myers.

Pelfrey (6-foot-7, 210-pounds) agreed to a $3.55 million bonus and skipped straight to High-A St. Lucie for his professional debut in 2006.

Combining between High-A (44.1 innings), Double-A (57.1 innings), and Triple-A (34.0 innings), Garza posted a 10.25 k/9 rate, 0.88 WHIP, and gave up six home runs in 135.2 innings.

Also pitching at High-A (22.0 innings), Double-A (66.1 innings), and Triple-A (8.0 innings), Pelfrey had a 10.19 k/9 rate, 1.18 WHIP, and allowed four home runs in 96.1 innings.

With his smaller build and lower fastball velocity (94 MPH vs. 97), Garza projects as a very good No. 2 starter, while many think Pelfrey could be a No. 1. But Garza’s 2006 minor league numbers show that he is able to dominate with his polished pitching arsenal. Pelfrey has a lot of work to do before his secondary repertoire is big league ready, just learning to throw a slider after discarding his curveball.

From the boards

My Take: “Pelfrey is ahead of Garza by a fairly wide margin. I don't think a single hitter faced Garza in more than two games this season...something that I think really played into his hand. Garza missed fewer bats every time he jumped a level. He's a solid No. 2 to me at best. Pelfrey has ace potential.”

Poster #1: “I have Pelfrey slightly ahead of Garza. Pelfrey was very good in the minors, but once he got to the bigs, his lack of secondary stuff really caused him to struggle. Garza doesn’t have the No. 1 that Pelfrey does, and he doesn’t have the potential either, but I think he has a better arsenal of pitches currently.”

Poster #2: “I'm not as sold on Pelfrey becoming the Ace that people think he can/will be. So I've got Garza ahead of him because of Garza's better arsenal of pitches.”

 

Top keeper 2Bs not named Utley

While premier second base prospects Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks have graced the elite prospect ranks, Ian Kinsler and Josh Barfield both could be .290 hitters with a few 20/20 seasons in their futures. And Dan Uggla went from 2005 Rule 5 Draft Pick to 2006 all-star, as he flashed 30 home run potential and easily outperformed all of the aforementioned players last season.

A mesh of uncertainly now lies around these five second basemen’s careers: Was Uggla’s season a fluke? Will Kinsler and Barfield hold up as solid big leaguers? Can Weeks not only stay healthy but also improve upon his disappointing first two seasons? Is Kendrick a good enough hitter to become an elite player without plus speed or plus power?

And finally, who would you draft first in a keeper league?

From the boards

My Take: “Barfield, Kinsler, and Uggla could all be above-average big leaguers, but Kendrick and Weeks have star potential. I'm a little concerned about Weeks' injuries over the last two years. Still, I don't think you can discount his star potential much heading into 2007. He could be better than Kendrick next season.”

Poster #1: “Kendrick game over, throw the thread away.”

Poster #2: “I'm obviously in the minority here, but I'd take Rickie Weeks before Kendrick. It's pretty close – not nearly the blowout most of you are making it seem like – mainly because of Rickie Weeks wrist injury, but ultimately his upside wins out. Rickie's got more power, will swipe more bags, should eventually hit for a solid average and he can take a walk.

Kendrick, in my opinion, is overrated for fantasy purposes. Obviously, I love the plus bat. He will be a doubles machine, but he has just decent power and solid speed and he can't take a walk. He "could" be a Placido Polanco type with a bit more power/speed.”

Adam Foster would like to thank bigboy1234 and Bill for starting the topics that he highlighted. Thanks also go out to doug, bigmike, bigboy1234, and rhodehead for their comments. If you have any questions for Adam, you can email him at adamwfoster@gmail.com.