We have the same hazardous play going on down on the farm. It’s a tough call to decipher the grand prize versus the sure thing. Everyone wants the next big thing, but where do you draw the line between what you could get and what you should get?
It’s easy to fall in love with say a Brandon Wood and his world of potential to conquer. What if he isn’t the next great slugger his slugging numbers suggest he could be? He maintained a less than stellar .276 batting average at Double-A Arkansas last year. When he did hit, he mashed – over half of his hits went for extra bases. Who doesn’t love that potential?
We’ve seen this low average and low contact rate paired with power potential before from the likes of the great Russell Branyan. How absolutely positive are you about Wood’s bang out weighing his bust? There’s potential greatness, but some equally imposing questions marks as well.
What makes us love Brandon Wood types? Big game potential, which is more than fair enough.
But what about the Troy Tulowitzki’s of the world?
Tulowitzki is going to be a more than solid shortstop for many years at the big league level. He hits for a good average, puts up decent power numbers, had a very strong 82.3% contact rate last season, reaches base plenty, plays gold-glove caliber defense, and so on. Nothing really jumps out to say Tulowitzki is headed to the Hall of Fame.
So on one had, you have let’s say a .280-290 batting average, between 15 and 20 homers, a .370-380 OBP, and great defensive play up the middle – maybe a few all-star appearances. Those are some safe and solid estimates. Could he do more? Of course. Tulowitzki still has some unrealized potential, but the worst-case scenario doesn’t look too bad now does it?
Or you can gamble that all away for a chance at 40 home run potential to take over the free world. But watch out. What if those round-trippers fall into the mid 20’s to go along with a mediocre batting average and less than stellar defense?
Deal or no deal?
You gotta love the world of intensive prospect dissection, huh? It’s an impossible line to draw; there is no correct and definite answer. But if you know you have a potential fantasy star, do you throw that aside for the next big thing?
General managers, scouts, and everyone else involved in player evaluation shares in the Deal or no Deal syndrome. When is enough simply enough?
Go for what you know you can get.
Give me the “I know what’s coming” guy. Does the potential of a Brandon Wood outweigh the outcomes of a Troy Tulowitzki? Of course. But even a blue-chipper like Wood leaves more than enough questions to be asked.
It’s just so hard to walk away from a player who could single-handedly change the face of the franchise. But the key word there is could. You’re playing a card game. Are you content with a trip to the final table or do you have to win it all? Feel like laying it all out there today?
You can never gamble the same way twice.
Troy Tulowitzki will not accomplish what Brandon Wood has the potential to do. But you know what’s coming with Tulowitzki. There isn’t that unknown possible implosion awaiting him down the line. He’s simply a solid bat with a very good glove. If Tulowitzki puts up the numbers everyone knows he will, I have a hard time believing he doesn’t nab at least a couple all-start births. It’s not a bad thing to simply play it safe.
It’s hard to evaluate a player based on his known commodities. Potential is just so much sexier. Sex sells. This is what makes scouting an art form. You have everything you’d ever need, but the opportunity for all that and more is quite possibly lying right in front of your very eyes. Let the gambling begin.
Adam Loberstein loves to play the game. Feel free to gamble along by emailing him at adamloberstein@gmail.com.