The Art of the Youth Movement

December 13, 2006

Every time a prospect demonstrates elite ability one of the first questions everyone asks is: who’s in front of him?

Unlike basketball or football, when it comes to prospects taking over an incumbent’s position baseball tends to be an all-or-nothing game. After all, you can’t substitute players in and out every other inning. And while platooning two players can be effective it is still a lukewarm solution.

Everyone wants to develop an all-star but is a team willing to risk two years devoted to a player’s development only to realize later that handing him the job outright was a mistake? What if it’s a decision that made the team worse in the short-term and may end up doing nothing for the long-term?

There have been two distinct attitudes with youth this off-season: embrace it or use it for depth.

Already coming off a last-place finish in the NL West, Arizona has decided to do the former – put its highly-touted talent to the test. After bringing up Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Carlos Quentin last year to joining Connor Jackson, who was with the club coming out of Spring Training, the Diamondbacks have pushed veterans like Luis Gonzalez, Craig Counsel, and Tony Clark out of the way.

Arizona ’s veterans weren’t performing at a very high level and it makes all the sense in the world to see if the acclaim heaped upon its loaded farm system is justified. How quickly the young Diamondbacks develop remains to be seen, but Arizona has made a decisive move to go with cheaper, more talented players and its fans have good reason to be excited.

Standing in stark contrast are the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their acclaimed trio of Andre Ethier, James Loney, and Matt Kemp also represents a potential core of all-stars in which to build around – especially following the departures of J.D. Drew and Kenny Lofton.

The Dodgers eschewed the notion of depending on their youngsters, however, signing 29-year-old Juan Pierre for five years and the aforementioned 37-year-old Gonzalez for the 2007 season. Ethier should still start in left, but Kemp and Loney appear stuck on the outside looking in.

Los Angeles ’ choice is puzzling, especially given its very talented – and very inexpensive – prospects.

The price of going with experience over youth? Nearly $15 million this year alone – $7.5 million on Pierre and $7.35 million for Gonzalez. Kemp and Loney are set to make close to the major league minimum (around $375,000).

The Dodgers want to win in 2007 but by handcuffing their best talent they are spending large chunks of money to fill positions that could be manned by capable, in-house prospects. The cash that they spent on Pierre and Gonzalez could have been put in reserve for midseason acquisitions or off-season areas where they have a more dire need for help.

In theory, the Dodgers can hold back Kemp and Loney – both just 22 – with little ill effect, in terms of stunting their development. But both players have already dominated during their time at Triple-A Las Vegas and might grow somewhat disillusioned.

From a fan’s perspective, players on the wrong side of 30 offer so little hope compared to a group of talented youth – not that ticket sales are a big issue for the Dodgers. Considering that veterans are literally 20 times more expensive, it becomes especially difficult to accept a team’s decision not to focus its efforts on its best young players. If the Dodgers don’t win immediately, their expensive off-season may become open to mockery from their fans.

There is little doubt that April, 2007 will represent a spring of promise for both Arizona and Los Angeles, albeit for completely different reasons.

The Dodgers splashed all kinds of cash this winter, both on their outfield and their starting pitching. Eager for success, fans in L.A. will undoubtedly have little patience with the new imports. Their veterans need to produce – otherwise they will simply represent time and money poorly spent.

Arizona ’s off-season was equally decisive. The Diamondbacks committed themselves to a full-fledged youth movement that will also generate excitement, particularly because its fans have heard the names Drew, Young, Quentin, and Jackson for so long they should be chomping at the bit to see youth in action.

The only difference is that Arizona’s fan base will probably show a lot more understanding should things start roughly next season, a luxury the Dodgers will not have.

 
Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.