Free Fantasy Advice: Is Andrew Miller already a keeper?

December 14, 2006
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Brian from Seattle asks:

I just joined a 6x6 keeper league that uses OBP and SLG (no AVG). Pitching is standard + holds. I'm looking to trade extra draft picks or older players for younger players. I have somebody offering me Andrew Miller, James Loney, and Chris Duncan for Richie Sexson and a 4th round pick -- we keep 12-15 players so a 4th round pick would be a 19th round pick if it was a total redraft league.

Would you make that trade? I doubt Loney is going to have a spot to play and Miller is a year off. The owner is also willing to deal Bobby Crosby. What do you think of Crosby, Miller, and Duncan for Sexson and the 4th round draft pick?

Brian

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Brian,

Keeper leagues are tricky to analyze, especially when the number of keepers is restricted. Now, with the information you’ve given us, here’s how I’d go about analyzing the move:

Since you can only keep 12-15 players, the quality of the choices you keep has to be very high. The cardinal sin in keeper leagues is going for quantity over quality, especially if space is limited.

Sexson has real value in your league. He’s just 32 years old, has hit 34+ home runs these past two years, drives in a lot of runs and normally keeps a high OPS (his .842 last year was his lowest in several seasons). In other words, depending on what other first basemen you have, Sexson represents true quality.

The problem with the players you’ve been offered is two-fold: First is that only Miller represents elite potential. Loney and Duncan aren’t premier talent worth holding on to after this year. To make matters worse, as talented as Miller is, even he’s probably not a guy you want to reserve a spot for, given that he’s just 21 years old and has practically no minor league experience. He’s likely two-plus years away from really making a major league impact.

I’d turn this trade down, as you can certainly do better. If you need young SP there are surely guys out there (i.e. a Garza, Pelfrey, McCarthy, Olsen, let alone a Cain, Verlander, Bonderman, etc.). Same goes for OF and 1B, where you should want guys like Markakis and Swisher, not Duncan and Loney.

If you only have 12-15 keepers, don’t waste them on guys that won’t contribute for a few years, or simply aren’t elite enough prospects. Work toward building up 15 guys ready to produce and with all-star potential.


Best of luck,

Nick 

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