Top 3 Rookie First Basemen

This is the second installment of our seven part series on the top prospects at every position. Last Friday, we ranked the top 2007 rookie catchers.

Warning: No player on this list is currently in line for an opening day starting job. We wouldn't suggest using anything more than a late-round draft pick on any of them in shallow redraft leagues.

Note: A player must have rookie status entering the 2007 season in order to qualify for our lists. We rank players based on their potential and the likelihood they will reach that potential.

1. James Loney, LAD: Somewhat quietly, Loney, 22, turned in one of more the stellar seasons of any advanced prospect in 2006, earning a promotion to the big leagues at the end of July. In 48 major league games (102 at-bats), the lefthanded Loney took advantage of the platoon work given to him, posting an OPS of .901. His 15 extra-base hits (6 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs) pushed his slugging percentage to .559, and his low strikeout ratio (8 walks vs. 10 strikeouts) kept his on-base percentage at an acceptable .342 clip.

Loney’s Triple-A stats were even more impressive than his big league numbers, albeit in hitter-friendly Las Vegas: .972 OPS (.426/.546) and 43 extra-base hits (33-2-8) in 366 at-bats. Given that his career minor league walk-to-strikeout ratio has been a very solid 207:304, the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder appears to be absolutely ready for extended playing time in the bigs. A polished, disciplined hitter with significant ability to pound the ball into the outfield gaps, there’s not a whole lot to dislike about the 22-year-old.

But where will he play? Incumbent first baseman Nomar Garciaparra re-signed, Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez arrived via free agency, and Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are two hot prospects competing for the last outfield spot.

Loney formed a strong platoon with Nomar at the tail end of last year, which should continue. And should any of the veterans go down with injury – a very possible scenario – then Loney should jump into a starting role. Still, if Ethier and Kemp excel then Loney may find himself deep down on the bench, in the minors, or possibly traded to another organization.

 

 

2. Elijah Dukes, TB: Dukes is a modern day triple threat: He’s got power, he’s got speed, and he’s got baggage. A terrific 6-foot-2, 220-pound athlete, Dukes has consistently impressed over the past two seasons in Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham. Only his confrontational demeanor has checked his progress.

In 200 games Dukes, 22, put up 28 home runs, 10 triples, and 36 doubles last season, all the while improving his plate discipline. He posted a .401 on-base percentage in Durham last year with an impressive 44:47 walk-to-strikeout ratio, boosting his OPS to .889.

Should he get an opportunity, it will not be in his usual outfield position of left field. Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, and B.J. Upton lay claim to the Tropicana turf.

Realizing this logjam, the Devil Rays sent Dukes to the Arizona Fall League with the explicit purpose of getting some time in the infield. Unfortunately, a knee injury cut short the experiment, which should nevertheless continue in Spring Training and then Durham next April.

It is truly in the Devil Rays’ best interest to make the mercurial Dukes feel at ease and supported. In a recent meeting with the press Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon outlined his 2007 starting lineup: Ty Wigginton at first base and either Johnny Gomes or Greg Norton at DH.

With little blocking him and with so much promise, Dukes should get his shot around the all-star break and possibly even sooner. We’re guessing he’ll leap over both Joel Guzman and Wes Bankston on Tampa Bay’s depth chart.

 

 

3. Bryan LaHair, SEA: The Seattle Mariners 2006 Minor League Player of the Year, LaHair has vaulted from a draft and follow pick to a player who stands a good chance of helping the big league club in 2007.

Undrafted out of high school, LaHair, 24, attended St. Petersburg Junior College and tried to bulk up his athletic 6-foot-5 frame. The Mariners liked the physical and mental maturation that they saw out of the Florida native enough to take a chance on him in the 39^th round and then sign him – for well above slot money – convinced that the light went on for LaHair in his second year of college.

The Mariners wisely opted to take it slow with the lefthanded hitter, promoting him just one level per year in his first three minor league seasons. Playing against younger competition, LaHair made that decision pay off by tearing apart High-A Inland Empire in 2005: .310/.373/.503 with 22 home runs, 133 RBI, and 28 doubles in 508 at-bats.

He built upon that success this year by combining for a .309/.381/.474 line and totaling 16 home runs and 22 doubles between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A Tacoma. If Richie Sexson gets dealt, expect LaHair to assume the starting first base job for Seattle.

 

Check back next week for our Top 3 Rookie Second Basemen.