When Miami Hurricane shortstop Ryan Braun made the move from shortstop to third baseman, he enlisted the help of New York Yankee shortstop turned third baseman Alex Rodriguez to aid his transformation to the hot corner prior to the 2005 June Draft. The move paid off as Braun was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers fifth overall and has moved quickly through the Brewers system.
After being selected in June of 2005, Braun showed how developed he was as he tore through Rookie Helena and was promoted after just 10 games. Single-A West Virginia proved to be just as friendly for the powerful righthander.
Assigned to High-A Brevard County for 2006, Braun found himself in unfamiliar waters; He was struggling. But he made the appropriate adjustments and the Brewers felt he was ready at midseason for a promotion to Double-A Huntsville. He rewarded their confidence by posting a .303/.367/.589 vital line in 231 at-bats.
Defense
Braun has a unique set of skills that allow him to be a scouting
darling and a statistical sweetheart. As he takes the field, the first
thing you notice about Braun is his athleticism. His move from short to
third was not facilitated by an inability to field the position. It was
more because he was having difficulty transforming the athleticism into
outs.
He struggles, at times, with his footwork and doesn’t have the softest of hands. But he has a cannon for an arm and great speed. Some believe Braun might be more suited for the outfield because of this and his troubles with footwork, but there’s still a good chance that he’ll stick at third base. In either case, he certainly has the potential to be an above-average defender.
Strengths
Braun advanced to Double-A on the power of his bat. He has the ability
to hit for average and power which makes him a major threat at the
plate. During the 2005 campaign, Braun slugged .632 and batted .352.
His
swing is fairly compact and short. Braun is more or less a pull hitter.
He has a tendency to finish high on his swing. It’s a bit odd to the
sight but his swing is nice and it works for him. He has very good bat
speed and strong wrists.
One of the things about Braun that
is most impressive is his ability to drive a ball no matter where the
it is in the strike zone. That comes from great bat control and quick,
strong hands.
In two seasons covering four levels, Braun has become one of the top position players in the minor leagues. He has posted a professional line of .308/.367/.549 and has ripped 32 home runs in 646 at-bats. He was invited to the Arizona Fall League this year where he continued to tear the cover off the baseball (.326/.396/.641 in 92 at-bats).
Weaknesses
Braun has some trouble against right-handed pitching, but it’s not a
big problem. Despite the lower average, OBP and slugging against
righties, he has shown signs of improvement. He’s taken strides to lay
off pitches more and during the Arizona Fall League managed to put up a
.361/.423/.754 line against righthanded pitchers. The significance of
the numbers is minimal because of the small sample size (61 at-bats)
and quality of pitchers but it is significant to note the
accomplishment.
Braun certainly has the capability to hit .300 at the big league level. He does not possess superb on-base skills but a combined .363 OBP this year isn’t the end of the world. He’s certainly capable of upping that number but if he’s even able to maintain .360, he’ll be a very good offensive third baseman. While Braun won’t be able to replicate his .754 slugging against righties from the AFL when he gets to Milwaukee, he will be able to push .550 or higher. He can drive the ball to all parts of the field and holds a tremendous ability to pull the ball into the gap in left center field.
Major League Outlook
Not only does Braun have the tools and vital line to succeed at the
major league level, he has the peripherals to indicate sustainable – if
not improvable – numbers. Braun has drawn walks in just over 8.0% of
his plate appearances over his professional career. This is a very good
indicator that his average is sustainable.
However, he goes
down via the ‘K’ in just under 20.0% of his plate appearances. To put
that in perspective, Alex Gordon stuck out in 20.2% of his plate
appearances this year in Double-A (486 at-bats) while Braun went down
at a rate of 20.4% over A+, AA and AFL. His K-rate isn’t necessarily a
bad thing, but it is certainly an area that if he can improve he will
dramatically improve his total value.
Braun has posted
BABIP over .320 at every level including well over .400 in High-A last
season. If he’s able to make more contact and strikeout less, he should
be able to add about one hit for every three strikeouts he cuts down
on. This is certainly indicative of his hitting ability but also of his
speed.
Not only does his speed help him defensively but
Braun is a stolen base threat. He recorded 26 stolen bases in 2006
against 4 times caught. An 87.0% success rate is highly encouraging and
as Braun gets more comfortable with pitchers, he should be able to
steal more bases.
With an overload of infielders for 2007, the
Milwaukee Brewers will likely assign Braun to Triple-A Nashville to
start the season. But with the oft-injured Cory Koskie and veteran and
light hitting Tony Graffanino, Braun could be looking at a call-up
sometime in 2007. When he is inserted as the Brewers starting third
baseman, look for monster numbers.
He’ll likely be looked at as a third hitter in the lineup with definite 30/30 potential. There is little doubt he’ll be able to blast 30 home runs and he certainly has the speed. The biggest question will be whether or not he will be in a position to attempt 35 steals. He is definitely capable of a .320/.375/.550 line. Braun’s unique blend of tools, talent, and potential make him one of the premier prospects in baseball and a fun player to watch.
Koby Schellenger can be reached at koby.schellenger@gmail.com.