Free Fantasy Advice: Cameron over Wells?

December 28, 2006
Here at Project Prospect, we’re as into following the big leagues as we are the minors. So we have perspectives on every kind of fantasy question. We’re making an effort to help your team out by providing Free Fantasy Advice once a week.

 
Sean from St. Louis asks :

I have a situation on my fantasy team, I'm in the process of drafting my team this year. Now here is the predicament I'm currently in, Vernon Wells and Mike Cameron are the two best players left on the board, and I just have no idea who to pick I feel so lost in life right now. The categories in my league are EQA, WARP3, VORP, and Win Shares. I know I know odd categories but nonetheless, I need to know who will be better just for next season. Now Mike Cameron is going into his contract year, while Vernon Wells just signed his contract extension, do you think this matters at all in my decision? Also, do you put any thought into what Wells did in 2004 and 2005 or should I just disregard that? So who do you recommend I pick for this 1 year league?

Thanks for the free fantasy advice,

Sean

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Sean,

I’m sorry you feel so lost right now, but do not feel as if you are alone. Many a Project Prospect reader has discussed this issue in the forums; I’ll do my best to appease your anxiety.

First off, very interesting statistics – I like it. Let’s start by simply seeing how Mike Cameron and Vernon Wells faired in regard to these categories last season:

EQA: Cameron .289, Wells .288

WARP3: Cameron 8.1, Wells 8.0

VORP: Wells 58.9, Cameron 39.8

Win Shares: Cameron 28, Wells 25

The VORP numbers standout as the only real degree of separation, well, unless you feel like splitting hairs about tenths and hundredths of percentage points. Looking at these statistics show that Wells and Cameron are closer than meets the eye.

So how do you pick one of them?

To all of those who have lost sleep over Wells versus Cameron, I can now give you your diagnosis: a moderately severe case of over-analysis.

Say you choose to overlook the VORP statistics for a second. This leaves you with three categories in which Cameron and Wells were extremely close last season; these numbers are a push.

Think about it this way for a second: Mike Cameron,33, has been a good, underrated player for his entire career, playing for five different teams over the course of his 12-year big league career.

Vernon Wells is...Vernon Wells!

You know exactly what you’re getting with Cameron – he’s a very solid ballplayer. Cameron is a career .252 hitter that’s going to put up 20 HR and 70-80 RBI with a pretty solid OBP around .350 and a SLG in the mid to high .400 range.

A season such as this would be the worst of Vernon Wells’ career.

Wells hit .303 last season while blasting 32 homers, 40 doubles, 106 RBI, posting an OBP of .357 and a very strong .542 slugging percentage. Don’t think about the 2004-2005 edition of Vernon Wells or the fact that Mike Cameron is in a contract year. A season such as the 2006 campaign is going to become the standard of Vernon Wells, who just turned 28 and is in the prime of his career. Expect him to replicate and exceed last year’s totals. Throw that nice VORP back into the equation and you’re home free.

There are many reasons that Cameron has been a relative journeyman throughout his career and that Wells is the owner of a new seven-year, 126 million dollar deal. One of those reasons: all Vernon Wells wanted this holiday season was a spot in your fantasy lineup.


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