Is B.J. Upton still a can't miss prospect?

January 14, 2007

Once billed as the next great shortstop prospect, B.J. Upton has yet to be become an everyday player for the Devil Rays. While his path was blocked by Julio Lugo for the majority of the past three seasons, when an opening occurred at shortstop late last season, Upton, 22, found himself instead at third base. The newly acquired Ben Zobrist took the opening at shortstop in Tampa Bay.

We heard for many years that even with Upton’s propensity to commit errors in the minor leagues, the Devil Rays had no plans of moving him from shortstop. But they could not stand looking at him at short any longer and finally made the switch in 2006.

In 2004, he played 16 big league games at shortstop and 13 at third base and committed 9 errors. In 2006, he played 50 games for the Devil Rays (all at third base) and committed 13 errors for a fielding percentage of .906.


Strengths

Upton ’s game is speed and offense. During his first full season at Triple-A Durham (2005, 545 at-bats) he hit .303/.392/.490 with 18 home runs and stole 44 bases in 57 attempts (77.2% success).

However, in 398 Triple-A at bats last season, he only hit .269/.374/.394 with 8 home runs and 46 stolen bases in 63 attempts (73.0%). He has hit just .251/.312/.347 in 334 total big league at-bats with 5 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 19 attempts (78.9%). He has yet to show he can reproduce his 2005 numbers in the minors – let alone the majors.


Future Position

Upton ’s bat should and will get him to the majors to stay. But where and when that stay will occur is a huge question.

The Devil Rays have one of the deepest groups of talented hitters who are in the age range of 18-25.

With Zobrist now ahead of him at shortstop and third baseman Evan Longoria coming on quick, Upton’s days in the infield may be numbered. The signing of Japanese import Akinori Iwamura at third also will keep Upton off the hot corner. And former all-star Jorge Cantu will return at second, while first baseman/designated hitter will be shared by Ty Wiggington and Jonny Gomes.

Lastly, the outfield is pretty crowded with Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, and Carl Crawford – not to mention the arrival of Elijah Dukes in the near future.

Where does all of this leave our “Can’t Miss Prospect”? Likely without a regular position, unless Tampa Bay makes a trade.


What To Expect

Defensively, Upton is likely headed for the outfield, where it may be a few years before he becomes an average defender. But like Alfonso Soriano, he has the speed and athleticism to learn quickly.

Upton ’s minor league numbers compare fairly well to Eric Davis’ – just a tier below in terms of power. So he would have been a stud if he stuck in the infield, but he could still be an elite offensive outfielder.

A 2007 line around .275/.371/.405 with 10 home runs and 35 stolen bases isn’t out of the question for Upton. He’s definitely one of the best stolen base sleepers out there and with all the people who have given up on him, Upton could be a great draft day bargain.


You can reach Tim Francis at timothy.j.francis@verizon.net.