Free Fantasy Advice: Prospect Draft Help

January 18, 2007
Here at Project Prospect, we’re as into following the big leagues as we are the minors. So we have perspectives on every kind of fantasy question. We’re making an effort to help your team out by providing Free Fantasy Advice once a week.


This week's question comes from Neil T. (San Diego):

I was wondering which two players you would take from the list below. I won the league last year so I have two picks in a row at the turn of the first round. Here are the best available:

Adam Miller
Tim Lincecum
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Jose Tabata
Luke Hochevar
Elijah Dukes
Donald Veal
James Loney
Joey Votto
Clayton Kershaw

I was thinking Gonzalez and Adam miller, but Lincecum would be nice, as i need a closer. I currently have Delmon young, Phil Hughes, and Ian Stewart as my minor leaguers and we're adding 5 more this season. Thanks for your input!

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Neil,

Congrats on winnings your league next year and having a great group of minor leaguers already.

That's good list of players who will be solid big leaguers, so we're just trying to pick out the guys who will most likely be all-stars.

James Loney doesn't really have all-star potential. Adam Miller could be very good, but he has already been slowed by injuries. Carlos Gonzalez needs to make some improvements in strike zone judgement if he is going to excel. Donnie Veal still needs to get his curveball working and work his way to the upper minors. Luke Hochevar still has a fair amount to prove in the minor leagues. Joey Votto has only had one really good year. And Elijah Dukes is more of a risk than these other guys.

That leaves us with Tim Lincecum, Ryan Braun, Jose Tabata, and Clayton Kershaw.

These are all very high ceiling guys who will have value -- eventually even in 10-team mixed leagues. Braun and Lincecum are the closest to the big leagues but Tabata and Kershaw could be better.

The Giants wil continuel try to develop Lincecum as a starting pitcher, and a lot of folks think that he will be able to stick as a starter. Sure he's small, but small pitchers can be successful -- Pedro Martinez. It's hard to ignore a guy who could strike out 10.0 big league batters per nine.

Braun has the kind of bat to be a No. 3 hitter and the kind of speed to be a fantasy stud. Whether he ends up at third base or in the outfield, he will be an offensive monster -- David Wright-lite at worst.

Tabata has a projectable frame and has shown mounds of potential. He should continue to rise throught the Yankees' system quickly and eventually work his way into their starting lineup.

Kershaw appears flawless: a lefty who can touch the upper 90's and controlt the strike zone. He could easily become a better prospect than Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey are right now.

I'd go with Braun and Kershaw, numbers 18 and 34, respectively, on our top 100 prospect list. That combo gives you a sure thing bat and a pitcher who just needs to stretch his arm out before he becomes a big league ace.

Lincecum is defintely a safer bet to be a good major league pitcher than Kershaw right now, but I think Kershaw has No. 1 overall prospect potential -- perhaps even as soon as 2008. And given that it's kind of tough to really get a good read on Tabata at the moment, I think Braun is an easy pick over him. Braun and Lincecum are pretty close for me, so if you really need pitching, I wouldn't argue with taking both Lincecum and Kershaw.

Good luck in 2007,

Adam Foster

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