Top 5 Rookie Starting Pitchers

by Project Prospect
January 19, 2007
This is the seventh installment of our seven part series on the top 2007 rookies at every position. So far, we’ve ranked rookie catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, and outfielders.

Note: A player must have rookie status entering the 2007 season in order to qualify for our lists. We rank players based on their potential and the likelihood they will reach that potential.


1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP, BOS: When we're not petitioning Major League Baseball as to why professional Japanese baseball players should not be considered rookies, we keep busy trying to pin down fresh MLB faces who will be impact players.

It's highly unlikely that Matsuzaka, 26, will just burst into the majors and pitch like an ace. And it may only take a rocky start for the 6-foot-1, 187-pounder's fantasy stock to take a huge hit.

Matsuzaka maintained a 1.14 WHIP in 1402.2 innings in Japan, while striking out 8.69 batters per nine.  He averaged 175.1 innings per season over the course of eight seasons. Last year, he struck out 200 batters in 186.1 innings (9.66 K/9) and put up a 0.92 WHIP.

We're not so sure that Matsuzaka is really one of the best pitchers on the planet, and plan on following him as closely as any reporter, fan, or camera lense this Spring. Realistically, you could just be paying big for a season comparable to C.C. Sabathia in 2006.

Year   Team   Level   IP   H   BB   HR   K   K/9   WHIP   ERA   W   L
2006   Sei   JPN   186.1   138   34   13   200   9.66   0.92   2.13   17   5


























 

 
2. Matt Garza, RHP, MIN: The 6-foot-4 righty was selected by Minnesota with the No. 25 overall pick in the 2005 draft and has been on the fast track to the big leagues ever since.  

A product of Fresno State, Garza had a solid professional debut in 2005, throwing in Rookie ball then Single-A Beloit and posting a strong WHIP of 1.02 and 1.21 at each level, respectively.  

The 2006 minor league campaign was even more impressive for Garza, as he pitched over three levels before being called up to pitch for the Twins. During his stints at High-A Fort Myers, Double-A New Britain, and Triple-A Rochester, Garza never had a WHIP over 0.94 and put up a very impressive 154:33 strikeout to walk clip. 

Garza ended up with an ERA at 5.76 and a WHIP almost double of his 2006 minor league clip (1.70). But this was just a 50.0-inning stint – nothing big enough to make his previous career accomplishments go for naught.  Expect Garza to make a strong impact in the heart of the Twins rotation this season.

Year   Team   Level   IP   H   BB   HR   K   K/9   WHIP   ERA   W   L
2006   F.M.   A+   44.1   27   11   3   53   10.76   0.86   1.42   5   1
2006   N.B.   AA   57.1   40   14   2   68   10.67   0.94   2.51   6   2
2006   Roc   AAA   34.0   20   7   1   33   8.74   0.79   1.85   3   1
2006   Min   MLB   50.0   62   23   6   38   6.84   1.70   5.76   3   6

























 

 

3. Jason Hirsh, RHP, COL: The featured player received in the off-season deal that sent Jason Jennings to Houston, Hirsh will not only get opportunities this year in Colorado, he’ll also be under pressure.

Standing at 6-foot-8 and weighing in at 250 pounds, Hirsh is a durable presence on the mound in his own right. He also has experience in the bandbox that is Minute Maid Park, arguably more claustrophobic than Coors Field.

That said, while a sure thing to get starts and innings, Hirsh is not a sure thing to experience rip-roaring success. Although he posted an outstanding minor-league WHIP (1.14 in 472.1 innings), his K/9 rate dipped from 8.62 in AA to 7.73 in AAA.

The Rockies have a deeper bullpen than most, so they will want quality from the big right-hander more than quantity. Should he exhibit the control he demonstrated in the minors he should be a fine. If his strikeout totals don’t improve, though, Hirsh could struggle -- especially in a park like Coors.

Year   Team   Level   IP   H   BB   HR   K   K/9   WHIP   ERA   W   L
2006   R.R.   AAA   137.1   94   51   5   118   7.73   1.06   2.10   13   2
2006
Hou   MLB   44.2   48   22   11   29   5.84   1.57   6.04   3   4

























 

 

4. Homer Bailey, RHP, CIN: Bailey has all the credentials: great upper-nineties fastball, solid curveball, good size (6'4'', 200), and a hometown that shares its name with a ZZ Top song (La Grange, TX). There is one knock on Bailey, though: he was born May 3rd, 1986.  Very few major league pitchers experience great success as 21-year-olds.

Opportunities do arise, however. Matt Cain pulled it off last season. If Bailey starts off 2007 by continuing to limit batters to under 6.60 hits per 9 innings while posting a strikeout rate above 10.0, then the Reds will give him an opportunity -- their staff needs serious help.

Bailey could conceivably get 10-15 starts with the big league club, and if he’s called up it means he’s in rhythm and in peak form, ready to post good numbers.

Year   Team   Level   IP   H   BB   HR   K   K/9   WHIP   ERA   W   L
2006   St. Luc   A+   70.2   49   22   6   79   10.06   1.00   3.31   3   5
2006   Cha   AA   68.0   50   28   1   77   10.19   1.15   1.59   7   1


























 


5. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, NYM: Pelfrey was drafted by the New York Mets as the 9th overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. His arsenal includes a dominating fastball, a good change and an average curveball. He works down in the strike zone effectively and records most of his outs via the groundball or the strikeout. 

His fastball sits in the 92-96 range and has great movement in on right-handed hitters. Pelfrey works off his fastball and uses it to establish his other pitches. His changeup is his second best pitch, though it’s still a work in progress. He has been able to effectively use it against left handed hitters. His curveball is a developing pitch to say the least. He used it effectively in college but it disappeared in 2006.

With age working against the Mets pitching staff, Pelfrey should be in line to tie down a job in the starting rotation in 2007. If he continues to develop his secondary pitches, he will become the frontline starter that he was drafted to become.

Year   Team   Level   IP   H   BB   HR   K   K/9   WHIP   ERA   W   L
2006   St. Luc   A+   22.0   17   2   1   26   10.64   0.86   1.64   2   1
2006
Big   AA   66.1   60   26   2   77   10.45   1.30   2.71   4   2
2006
Nor   AAA   8.0   4   5   1   6   6.75   1.13   2.25   1   0
2006
NYM   MLB   21.1   25   12   1   13   5.48   1.73   5.48   2   1

























 


Check back next week for our top 25 overall rookie list for 2007.