Jason from Denver, Colo. asks:
I've
been debating a keeper league question with a friend for a few days
now, and I was wondering if you could give us your take. Who will have
a better major league career: Matt Garza or Jeff Francoeur?
I
know this one is pretty tricky because you're looking at a hitter vs. a
pitcher. And they're both 23-year-olds -- Francoeur is about two months
younger -- who don't have much major league experience. My research has
led me to believe that Jeff Francoeur won't have a better career than
Richie Sexson. And while I'm not as high on Garza as many people, his
0.88, 2006 minor league WHIP is pretty impressive -- he has a chance to
be pretty special.
So who would you rather own the career rights to? Thanks in advance!
--------------------------------
Jason,
It’s always fun to compare a hitter to a pitcher – so thanks for the opportunity! Like you stated, we’re dealing with two young and inexperienced talents here, so where can you draw the line?
Actually, you can draw it rather quickly.
Jeff Francoeur is an intriguing name to look at. I like the Sexson comparison in terms of power potential, but Sexson is also well known for his ability to draw walks and get himself onto the base paths – not exactly Francoeur’s forte.
While he may not have a ton of major league experience, 908 at-bats are a pretty solid display of what to expect from Francoeur. In 70 games as a rookie, the homegrown Atlanta native hit a cool .300, but his mere 11 walks raised his OBP to just over .330. In the 2006 full-season campaign, Francoeur’s average fell to .260 – and with just 23 walks – to post a poor .293 OBP.
Matt Garza was hit hard in his first trip to the big leagues last season, posting a 3-6 record and a 5.76 ERA to go along with a 1.70 WHIP, but this was in just 50 inning of work for the Selma, Calif. native.
With both individuals struggling to make an instant impact, it’s definitely worth looking at how these prospects made their original marks on baseball: down on the farm. Francoeur posted a vital line of .282/.330/.478, numbers which remained relatively consistent across the levels of development. Solid numbers that project for a solid big league career.
But Matt Garza has the potential to be far better than just solid.
Garza made a combined 37 starts in the minors – over five different levels! The 6-foot-4 righty fired through the competition for his chance at the show. Garza’s minor league career numbers are very impressive: 18-8 record, 2.56 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a ridiculous 243: 53 strikeout to walk ratio.
So to sum it all up, Jeff Francoeur has the potential to put up the power that is oh so appealing to any fantasy owner. But don’t necessarily expect a second coming of Richie Sexson. Francoeur has all the power and none of the patience – he may become more of a rich man’s equivalent to Russell Branyan.
Matt Garza will become a strong number two starter at worst. Pay no attention to the major league blip on his radar – he’s a keeper. Garza’s ability to keep the base paths empty solidifies himself as one of the top-flight young arms in all of baseball.
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