The fact that wins are so highly regarded among baseball fans is mind-boggling. People like to believe that some pitchers "know how" to win games, or that a particular pitcher is a "winner."
The
truth is that a pitcher receiving that "W" depends heavily on the
team's offensive production and bullpen – for which the pitcher
typically has almost no control over.
To earn a win, a
pitcher must pitch five innings or more, leave the game while his team
is ahead, AND keep that lead for the rest of the game. Those are two
factors which influence whether or not the pitcher earns a win. As a
fantasy owner myself, I get upset when Matt Cain goes eight strong
innings, and then Armando Benitez blows the win for him in the ninth.
The team a pitcher plays for greatly influences the win and loss ratios for that pitcher, due to external factors beyond the pitchers control.
Earned run average is a much more telling
statistic than wins because it takes out most all of the external
factors, just focusing on the pitchers performances vs. the batter.
RBI are another one of my favorite stats to argue with traditional
baseball fans because RBI are incredibly misleading, for similar
principles as wins. (A cleanup hitter on the Yankees is going to get
countless more opportunities to drive in runs than someone hitting on
the Royals.)
People believe that some hitter's can't hit
well with runners in scoring position. But these allegations are
usually due to small sample sizes. Major league hitter's don't get
nervous. In the long run, professional hitters are going to even out
over a career to post a batting average with runners in scoring
position that is similar to their normal batting average.
On-base percentage and slugging percentage measure what percent of the time a hitter does not make an out, and how much damage a hitter does when he hits, respectively. OPS is a good indicator stat for measuring a batter's value because it combines on-base and slugging percentage. OPS should replace or be weighed much more heavy than RBI's.
Last season, the Atlanta Braves ranked fifth in the major leagues in runs scored with 849 – a very good offensive output. Outfielder Andruw Jones took advantage of all those opportunities, driving in 129 RBI's. He finished sixth in all of Major League Baseball in this category, despite posting a relatively modest OPS of .894 – low for a superstar but still relatively high compared to the rest of the field.
In
contrast, the Washington Nationals scored just 746 runs last season,
which ranked 23rd in the majors. Nationals' first basemen Nick Johnson
had a much better season than Jones, posting an OPS of .948. However,
Johnson only accumulated 77 RBI – over fifty less than Jones. The
drastic difference is a result of external factors like less men in
scoring position for Johnson, which is why RBI are a misleading
statistic that must be eliminated from your fantasy scoring system.
It
is crucial to question what each statistic actually indicates, and
which stats can better evaluate a players worth. Wins and RBI totals
definitely do not indicate how valuable a player is to his team as well
as ERA and OPS.
Do me a favor and try scratching Wins and RBIs from your stat sheet this fantasy season. And when announcers ramble on about a pitcher's impressive win-loss record, just laugh like I do.
You can contact Erik at erik.zawojski@gmail.com.