Thanks for all of the great questions. I had a lot of fun answering
them all. Oh, and I'll try to get some visual elements up here this
week.
Anthony G.:
Project Prospect’s list came out more than a month before Baseball
Prospectus’ and Baseball America’s, and you guys had never published a
Top 100 before 2006. Did your opinions on any players change when BP
and BA released their lists?
Adam Foster: I’d
be lying if I said that they didn’t. Working in Baseball America’s
headquarters, I’ve gained so much appreciation for the way they
operate. Everyone in the office works tirelessly and they all run
circles around me when it comes to knowledge of the game. I’ve been
following Kevin Goldstein’s work for years. I respect his opinions and
admire how has gotten to where he is today.
BA and BP both had
Scott Elbert far lower than we did (31st and 32nd respectively vs. our
16th). I think I was a little too ambitious about Elbert’s odds of
finding his command in the upper levels of the minors.
Conor G.:
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus both compile their lists using
the consensus of a team of writers. Baseball America has been around
for a very long time and has a solid network of front office personnel,
scouts, coaches and players. Baseball Prospectus has contacts as well,
plus the advantage of the PECOTA system. Please explain the methodology
behind your list.
Metty5: My question for you is
what you're system is. BP tends to really like projectable athletes.
They try to get a guy in there that will be a shocker and if they do
well they look smart. BA takes a more conservative route. Everyone on
their lists are pretty big names, and you know all of them.
Adam Foster: These are very good questions.
I’ve always been a huge numbers guy. Over the last five years, I’ve
spent an average of 15 hours a week toying around with excel sheets.
And I spent over a month last summer, studying the best metrics for
evaluating prospects. My studies brought me to three key indicator
stats each for hitters and pitchers.
Next, I set up a function
on excel that ranked prospects based on how they stacked up against the
rest of the prospects in my sample population (about 100 hitters and
100 pitchers) in these stats. From there, I balanced my indicator stats
until I found an evaluation formula that I was happy with.
This gave me a list purely based on numbers, but that was only half the
project. I spent the second half of the summer polishing my list both
through debating prospects with my team of writers and reading
everything I could on the guys I was considering. Lastly, I did some
meshing of four of my writers list and mine to come up with our final
list.
Trevor C.: What was your reasoning behind ranking Dice-K behind Gordon and Delmon?
Adam Foster:
Even if, as Jim Callis says, Matsuzaka is one of top 10 pitchers in the
world, is he really going to jump into the league and be as much better
than say C.C. Sabathia? And if so would that rank him higher than Alex
Gordon, who could end up being as good as Teixeira? Or Delmon Young if
he is the next Vladimir Guerrero?
Give me Vlad, Teix, and then C.C. Those are the lines I was thinking along when I made the final call on our top 3.
Ron A.: Tim Lincecum - everyone seems to have a different opinion of him. What's happening there, and why?
Mike O.:
The difference that jumps out at me the most is PP's ranking of Tim
Lincecum. While I acknowledge that being ranked #25 is still very
impressive, can you elaborate on what you believe differentiates your
opinion of Lincecum's future vs. theirs?
Trevor C.:
There is some serious Lincecum love going on with the BA and BP lists,
do you think a trip to the bullpen is in his future and that's why he's
lower or is there another reason to his lower rank?
Adam Foster: Lincecum
was drafted in the 42nd round by the Indians in 2005 as a
draft-eligible sophomore. And now people are starting to say that he
could be the best pitcher from the 2006 draft, after he was the seventh
pitcher taken. Lincecum’s stock is just rising at an unbelievable pace.
We ranked him where we did because I don’t think he’s worthy
of being top 20 if he ends up in the bullpen. BA and BP are a lot more
confident than I am that he’ll stick as a starter.
Dave M.: Billy Butler outside the top 10.....what are they thinking? The defense argument is weak imho.
Adam Foster:
I don’t think there has ever been a can’t-miss designated hitter
prospect, so I totally see where BA and BP are coming from. Butler’s
.331/.388/.499 Double-A line – as a 20-year-old – blows me away. If he
was a lefthanded-hitting first baseman, Butler would probably be
considered a top 5 overall prospect.
Guru4u: Brandon
Wood’s K rate really scares me - to the point he reminds me more of
Russell Branyan than someone like Sammy Sosa (high K rate, but still
maintained decent Avg). And I get the impression that the move to 3B
is permanent, meaning he no longers gets "extra credit" for being a SS.
Personally, with all that in mind his ranking should be more like #15
than #5.
Adam Foster: I think Wood – and
Delmon Young for that matter – is unjustly criticized for his plate
approach. And I’m much more on the Sammy Sosa upside (I wrote that
comparison in our top 10 3B list a little more than a week ago…haven’t
seen anyone else toss it out) than Russell Branyan II side.
Sosa stuck out in 21.7% of his minor league at-bats (primarily age
17-22). Wood has struck out in 26.8% of his minor league at-bats (age
18-21). But while Sosa only slugged .402 in the minors, Wood has
slugged .537. Wood could grow into a player similar to Sosa – of course
it’s hard to compare Sosa to anyone, though.
Just because Wood
has taken such an unprecedented path through the minors, doesn’t mean
you need to red flag him. He may have a one-of-a-kind profile, but he
also has one-of-a-kind tools.
Trevor C.:
While he's not that much higher on the other lists, Longoria seems to
be getting a bunch of hype behind him also, future all-star or possibly
over-rated?
Adam Foster: As I was
constructing our Top 100, I thought I was being pretty aggressive with
how I was ranking 2006 draft picks. Then, BA and BP blew us out of the
water. Our highest 2006 draft pick is Andrew Miller at 12, BP has
Lincecum 6th, and BA has Longoria 7th. Suddenly, we’re relatively
conservative.
I think Longoria is going to be a stud…great
chance to become an all-star. John Manuel and Will Lingo were saying
that they think Longoria is in the same league as Gordon in terms of
talent potential on the BA Podcast last week. I agree. Even inside a
top 10, he’s not being overrated.
Ron A.: Dustin
Pedroia ended up on just one list. I know that he doesn't have the
highest ceiling, but he's got pretty good walk and strikeout numbers,
and is already at the major league level. Why the snub?
Adam Foster:
Prospect lists generally have been put together to highlight the game’s
future stars. It’s an excitement factor. But with all the guys who rank
near the top of these lists yet never make the big leagues, the whole
process of making a top 100 should be given some thought.
Our
list is still geared toward stars. However, we included Pedroia because
he has potential to be an average second baseman in the bigs, and as
you mentioned his pretty much has already arrived. That makes him a
very good prospect in my mind.
John K.:
Maybin - Over-rated. His good season consisted of a ton of infield
singles in low A with little power and high K's. Oh, and the league is
notorious for bad infield defense. He still has great skills but why
would he jump up the lists?
Adam Foster:
While he had a ridiculous BABIP of .415 last year
(http://www.minorleaguesplits.com is great), Maybin’s numbers were
deflated from playing in a pitcher’s park. Perhaps the two evened each
other out to some degree? BA had Maybin at 31 last year…I think 31 to 6
isn’t a ridiculous jump for someone with his kind of talent.
Ron A.: BP skipped Gio Gonzalez - are they pessimistic?
Adam Foster:
Gonzalez gave up 1.39 home runs per nine last season…he could easily
end up as a set-up man. I sat with Gio for a few hours at an AFL game.
He told me that the Phillies tinkered with his mechanics and it was
throwing him off. They let him go back to doing what he wanted –
probably because they planned to trade him – at the AFL, and he allowed
just one home run in 16.0 innings.
Ron A.: Jonathan Sanchez seems to be a subject of varied opinion. What is his ceiling? Will he make the rotation this season?
Adam Foster:
One of the best draft picks in the last five years (27th round, 2004),
Sanchez has the potential to be a No. 2 starter. I think the Giants
will open the season with a rotation of Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Noah
Lowry, Matt Morris, and Russ Ortiz. If Ortiz struggles early, Brad
Hennessey could take his place.
Meanwhile, Sanchez will either
open the season in the big league bullpen or Triple-A rotation. If he
opens 2007 in the Grizzlies’ rotation, Sanchez will make his way into
the Giants rotation at some point. If he opens the season in the big
league pen, he’s probably a bullpen arm for good – and John Manuel will
be heated.
Trevor C.: Why do you think BA ranked Erbe so much lower than PP and BP did?
Adam Foster:
My best guess would be that someone who has a lot of say in BA’s
prospect rankings thinks there’s a good chance that Erbe will end up in
the bullpen. I was unsure about Erbe sticking in the rotation myself a
few months ago, but the Orioles Top 10 chat that Will Lingo did with BA
subscribers convinced me otherwise.
John K.: Adam Miller - Was hyped too much before and now people are going too far the other way.
Adam Foster:
Pitcher injuries are like a breakup. There’s a stint of bitterness even
if you get back together because you felt wronged and you’re weary of
it happening again. Miller may be back on track but he has to prove it
more than a guy who has a clean slate.
Trevor C.: BP and BA both had Sean West on their top 100, how close was he to your list?
Adam Foster:
Not close at all. West only struck out 7.63 batters per nine while
allowing almost a home run per nine as a 20-year-old in Single-A.
That’s not impressive.
But West is a projectable 6-foot-8,
200-pounder with a live arm. I’ve actually gotten hounded for leaving
West off our list quite a bit. I’m very anxious to see what he can
accomplish next season.
Conor G.:
Where's the love for Adam Jones? Ellsbury, Buck, Dukes, Pie, Rasmus,
Pence, Young and McCutchen are some of the OF that rank above him, but
I think you could make a very solid case for Jones being better than
all of them. He's younger than all but 2 of them and has played at a
higher level than all of them except Chris Young. I really think you're
underrating Jones by ranking him 51st. Remember, he hit .287/.345/.484
through 96 games as a 21-year-old in the PCL. Also, he's still adapting
to learning the OF after moving off of SS.
Adam Foster:
First off, I don’t put too much weight into an athlete of Jones’
caliber having to learn the outfield. The switch probably came pretty
naturally to him.
One of the toughest parts of ranking
prospects is that they are playing in against different levels of
competition. I spent a few weeks trying to create a formula that could
smooth out the differences in competition between prospects last
summer. Further refining this “X-factor” will be one of my biggest
prospects next off-season. And maybe then I’ll see Jones in a slighty
different light.
Really, he’s just an exciting but overrated
major league player in my mind now…one of those guys who will carry
more fantasy value than major league value.
Steve R.:
No one seems to be saying anything about Josh Hamilton. Does he still
own his skill set? – I am in a very deep league where we have 50 man
minor league rosters so it is a question like – do I take the 10th best
projected high school kid in the 07 or 08 draft or do I gamble on Josh
Hamilton?
Adam Foster: Lots of people who
have supported Hamilton just hope that he goes on to live a healthy
life. If he becomes an above-average major leaguer, those movie rights
will go for millions. I don't think Hamilton will be a big league
starter for more than two seasons. I'd go for the high school kid.
Dave M.: Why is everyone (mostly BA) so down on Chris Iannetta?
So what if he has only 15-20 HR potential? He has a spotless record of
hitting for average and plate discipline. There are good reports about
his defense, and he seems to have great makeup. He's also major league
ready, so there is little to no chance of "Young Catcher Stagnation
Syndrome", as Sickels calls it.
Based on what I know about
Iannetta, and the scarcity of good players at the catcher position, I
would think Iannetta would rank in the top 40, maybe even top 30. So
what gives?
Adam Foster: Usually catchers
have to shift a lot of their focus to defense and game calling once
they advance to the big league level. And most potential average big
league bats are moved to other positions, so it’s hard to rank a
catcher as a top 50 prospect.
That said, I’m interested in
how BA wound up putting Montero over Iannetta. They did get to see
Iannetta play regularly at UNC, so maybe they know something about him
that I don’t.
John K.: Elijah Dukes - I
don't know of a single top prospect that failed to succeed due to
attitude unless it was drugs or coachability. Dukes has defense, plate
discipline, power, everything. Oh, and BP ranking him at 100 is a total
cop-out. Either have the courage to not rank him or rank him based on
talent.
Adam Foster: BA knows Dukes as well
as anyone, being located just a few blocks from where the Bulls play. I
really don’t think there’s a giant sample of elite prospects who have
had big makeup problems. My gut says Dukes’ talent will surface, but
our list may just be wishful when it comes to him.
Mike O.: What, no Rotoworld? I believe their list is scheduled to come out Monday (3/5)...
Adam Foster:
Good to know. I haven’t read many articles at Rotoworld, but I was a
big fan of their fantasy baseball magazine…was really disappointed when
they didn’t print it last year (online-only doesn’t do it for me). P.S.
Just looked at Rotoworld's Top 150 and it is not a list that I'd
compare ours to.
Steve R.: I am just
wondering on what basis you are saying that there are only three good
lists out there when there are so many that are produced every year.
What criteria did you use to determine that there were only three? Why
would you say that the other two are good lists – most popular? Most
accurate?
Adam Foster: I never said that I only thought there are only three good lists out there. I just chose to compare our list two BA and BP.
I’ve been referencing Baseball America’s Top 100 for years. They’re the
top dog when it comes to prospects in my mind. Goldstein’s full-time
prospect effort with Baseball Prospectus has also caught my attention.
Bryan Smith did a good job with his top 75 and I’ve looked at the
Sickels Community list – which has a solid Top 50. If someone else was
comparing their Top 100 list to two others, I wouldn’t expect them to
pick ours as one of them.