Learning the Commodities Market: Excel in Keeper Leagues

March 6, 2007

While year-to-year leagues remain an interesting challenge of draft rankings, waiver-wire work, and successfully dodging injuries, more and more fantasy owners are curious to try a keeper or dynasty set-up.

The allure of a deep roster league is that it focuses around a manager’s ability to snag talent before his competitors, allowing for a gifted manager to steadily assemble a star-filled roster.

But how many keeper-league managers are anything more than dead money? How many are frustrated with an inability to rebuild a losing team?

This week I detail two important elements to keeper-league success: Talent Acquisition and Successfully Navigating Trade Markets.

 
Talent Acquisition

Although winning any league requires a balanced team – good players at every position, relievers to garner saves or whatever categories your league uses – too many managers cling to the notion that their rosters must always have balance, sacrificing their potential to pick up more talented players at other positions.

If you are a mid-level team or lower without much hope of winning the league, do you really need to carry a back-up catcher? Do you need to patrol the waiver-wire for a David Weathers-type closer who might get 15-20 saves this year but is not reliever to build around?

In deep roster leagues, do not be afraid of collecting simply the best talent, preferably young or entering one’s prime. Carrying a huge surplus of outfielders isn’t a great permanent strategy, but if a young stud is available, don’t be afraid to drop a mediocre player at position you’re currently lacking in order to secure the better prospect or young player.

Too many keeper-league rosters are laden with average players who will never figure into that team’s future success.

Secondly, so many young players go through cycles of overvaluation and undervaluation. It is essential to become aware of when a prospect’s popularity is peaking or currently neglected.

If you had secured and protected erstwhile prospect darlings Andy Marte, Casey Kotchman, and Dallas McPherson two years ago you’d currently have a seriously weakened crop of young players, unless you were astutely able to find buyers for these players as they began their struggles.

Project Prospect exists for a reason: to offer better analysis and detailed summaries of the respective potentials of young players. Keeper league strategists must always be on the alert for when a young player’s value is peaking or in decline.

 
Becoming a Successful Trader

The greatest ramification of acquiring a large pool of talented players is roster flexibility. A plethora of options will allow a competent fantasy owner the ability to shape his trade via productive trades.

If you have been able to hoard and collect a multitude of talented players, or valuable commodities, you will then be able to use the other managers in the league to acquire commodities that your team currently lacks.

If you have seven outfielders, every one should be available to trade. Do not focus solely on trading your weakest assets. Similarly, do not feel that because you now have depth you must trade your best assets to strengthen the areas in which your team is currently weak.

This is where analyzing your league as a distinct commodities market will yield its most striking benefits.

Suppose in a losing year I managed to collect a bunch of highly-regarded pitching prospects. With so many pitching assets, I now have the opportunity to patiently find and acquire other players from other managers.

The key phrase, however, is patiently. I cannot emphasize enough the role that patience plays in becoming a successful commodities trader. If you have spent many months acquiring outfielders, only to find that the managers you want to trade with are not so interested in paying top value… wait!

One can never guarantee in the short term that you will always be able to trade away assets at your leisure - they are not a liquid medium of exchange. Just as the prices of metals and stocks fluctuate, so too will the markets for your players.

However, if you have indeed collected talented players, your trading efforts will eventually be rewarded. An impatient manager eager to change his roster will finally agree to the move that best suits your team.

Maybe you can find an owner desperate for your top asset, so as to build your team’s talent pool even higher. Perhaps your mid-range assets have now become more valuable, and will finally bring very good players at positions you need.

Be open to ideas, be flexible with your roster, and be patient in making sure that no deal was accepted to quickly when more value assets could have been obtained had you waited a few weeks or talked with more rival managers.

Remember, a deep-roster league is essentially its own commodities market. How well you play it on a consistent basis will eventually determine your year-to-year success.

 

Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.