The end of the world is near. There is a cataclysmic problem enveloping the evaluation process of baseball prospects all across the land.
Last time I checked, there are what may feel like hundreds upon thousands of statistics created in order to make projections, grade performance, and so on. No other sport on this planet – probably any planet for that matter – can boast the quantitative depth of baseball.
Where oh where did the little numbers go?
Look no further than 2007’s poster child, Kansas City Royals farmhand Billy Butler. All the 20-year-old did was post a vital line of .331/.388/.499 against the quality pitching depth of the Texas League last season. Butler banged out 33 doubles to go along with 15 home runs, as well, but the end all results of the season did not land Butler as a consensus top 20 overall prospect.
Looking at his career production, Butler’s 2006 campaign was actually an off year. In 314 career minor league contests, the Orange Park, Fla. native has put up a ridiculous .344/.417/.564 vital. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound future Major League star has dazzled fans and opponents alike with his ability to serve as a true offensive force.
So what questions does this leave to be asked about a player of this mold?
Billy Butler is a man without a position; he will be a designated hitter when he arrives on the big league scene. Of course defense is crucial when talking about the potential success of a team, but are you telling me that you don’t want Travis Hafner or David Ortiz pounding it out in the heart of your order because they don’t play the field?
The fact of the matter is that baseball has never seen a true, sure-fire designated hitting prospect.
I don’t believe in penalizing a player who serves as a trailblazer.
If Butler were a solid defender at any position, he’d be top five-to-ten overall. Just because there’s never been a true DH prospect doesn’t mean that Billy Butler won’t do great things as a Major League slugger – just look inside the numbers at what he has proven in the past.
While
Butler can be viewed as the front man, there are many others who have
seen their stock fall in favor of those with "more potential." Everyone
from Chris Young to Andrew McCutchen to even Carlos Gonzalez find their
respective ways ahead of the likes of Billy Butler, all of whom carry
far less impressive vitals than the aforementioned DH prospect.
So if it isn’t the production, what has their stock flying high?
These three are some of the best prospects in baseball because they hold the physical tools to become something special. Fair enough – good for them – but until those prospective tools of the Youngs, McCutchens, and Gonzalezes out there produce tangible results, I want the Billy Butlers of the world.
Potential refers to the possibility of an occurrence formulating. While the prospects of what may happen are rather appealing, I’m taking the small army of the underrated as led by General Billy Butler because I know what will happen. Potential is nice, success is better. The numbers game doesn’t lie.
Prefer a different means of evaluation? Feel free to contact Adam Loberstein at adamloberstein@gmail.com for further enlightenment.