Top 50 Pitchers Under 25

This is the final installment of our seven-part series on the top players under 25 by position. So far, we’ve ranked catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, and outfielders.

Notes: Write-ups and stats for 11-25 will be posted by Saturday evening (26-50 by Monday). For this series, we've ranked players based both on potential and proximity to the majors -- opposed to mainly ceiling as we did in our Top 100. Think of this list as one you'd take into a dynasty league draft. April 1st, 2007 was used as the cutoff date for eligibility on this list.

 

1. Felix Hernandez, MLB, SEA (4/8/86): King Felix had one of the most disappointing seasons for a 20-year-old starting pitcher in the last five years. His 1.34 WHIP didn’t rank in the top 30 among starting pitchers in baseball – not an ace – and he only stuck out 27.8% of the batters he faced. If Hernandez doesn’t make some major adjustments next season…he’ll still be the best young pitcher in baseball. Be patient. Hernandez could easily be the No. 1 pitcher in the world over the next 10 years.

2. Jeremy Bonderman, MLB, DET (10/28/82): Bonderman’s WHIP has hovered around 1.30 over the last three seasons, but he has turned in ERAs of 4.89, 4.57, and 4.08 from 2004 to 2006, respectively. So why the drop in ERA? Shrinking home run rates. The 24-year-old allowed 0.75 HR/start in 2004, 0.72 in 2005, and 0.53 in 2006. This will be Bonderman’s breakout year…brace yourself, it’s going to be big!

3. Matt Cain, MLB, SF (10/1/84): By posting a better WHIP (1.28 vs. 1.31) and lower HR rate (0.58 vs. 0.85) in the bigs than he did the previous year in Triple-A, Cain slapped the Pacific Coast League in the face. Pitchers aren’t supposed to improve upon their minor league numbers in their first full season and Cain did just that. Cole Hamels and Homer Bailey are going to have to be spot on in order to prevent Cain from collecting a lot of hardware.

4. Scott Kazmir, MLB, TB (1/24/84): Kazmir was on pace for a Cy Young caliber ’06 before shoulder tightness ended his season in September. There’s no doubt that when he’s healthy, the lefty is one of the best pitchers in the land – struck out 33.5% of the batters he faced last season. And Tampa Bay claims that it isn’t concerned about Kazmir’s health, but the Devil Rays also opted not to extend his contract this offseason.

5. Cole Hamels, MLB, PHI (12/27/83): Though his stuff appeared as electric as anyone’s last season (32.6% K per plate appearance), Hamels had the benefit of being a fresh face in the National League. And even if he continues to mystify his competition, the 6-foot-3 lefty is going to have trouble keeping his home run rates and pitches per inning down in the cozy confines of Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. Odds are Hamels will hit some speed bumps over his next 350.0+ innings before becoming masterful by 2009, though injuries are a slight concern.

6. Justin Verlander, MLB, DET (2/20/83): It took us long enough to get to a college guy, didn’t it? Justin Verlander took the big leagues by storm last season, posting a solid 1.33 WHIP while picking up 17 victories en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. An Old Dominion University product, Verlander 24, boasts a minor league WHIP of just 0.91. While he whiffed just 20.1% of opposing hitters last season, there’s no question that Verlander will continue to find success on the hill.

7. Phil Hughes, AA, NYY (6/24/86): With Derek Jeter set to turn 33 mid-way through the 2007 season, Yankees fans may be starting to wonder who will chauffeur them into the next decade. And Hughes has to be the favorite right now. Striking out 35.2% of the minor league hitters he’s faced, the 21-year-old righty is the best pitching prospect the Yankees have had since Brien Taylor. And after what happened to Taylor, New York is due.

8. Homer Bailey, AA, CIN (5/3/86): We heard that a batter stepped out in the middle of Bailey’s windup last year, and Bailey threw the next pitch at his head. Make of it what you may, but the Reds’ phenom has the swagger and potential of a young Roger Clemens. Bailey stuck out 33.2% of the batters he faced in Double-A. At the same level but a year older, Clemens stuck out 37.8%. Forget Beckett, Bailey has his sights set on Clemens.

9. Jered Weaver, MLB, ANA (10/4/82): The 6-foot-7, 205-pounder ultimately bumped his big brother (Jeff) from the Angels’ roster last season, but he was too busy dominating to really look back. After striking out 38.6% of the batters he faced last season in Triple-A, Weaver K’ed 26.1% in the bigs while maintaining a 1.03 big league WHIP.

 

10. Francisco Liriano, MLB, MIN (10/26/83): The Giants agreed to include Liriano along with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser in the A.J. Pierzynski trade because the young lefty had already established himself as a huge injury risk. Now, Liriano may not pitch another big league inning until he’s 24. Evidenced by his 1.00 WHIP and 36.5% strike out rate last season, Liriano has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the American League. But how many 200.0+ inning seasons does he have in him?

 

11. Ervin Santana, MLB, ANA (1/10/83): One of four international signees in our Top 25 Pitchers Under 25, Santana made steady improvements in his home run rate (1.14 per 9.0 innings to 0.93/9) and WHIP (1.39 to 1.23) last season. His K% did dip from 22.0% to 20.7% but that’s hardly anything to get worried about. Though it doesn’t look like Santana has the stuff to be more than a No. 2 starter, that’s a pretty valuable commodity.

12. Mike Pelfrey, MLB, NYM (1/14/84): A late signee from the 2005 draft, Pelfrey looked dominating in his minor league debut, posting a 33.9% K rate and allowing just four home runs in 96.1 innings over three levels. The 6-foot-7 right-hander throws a wicked power sinker in the mid-90’s, but questions remain about his slider and changeup. Working off his fastball, Pelfrey only needs to develop one other above-average pitch before he starts to dominate major league hitters.

13. Andrew Miller, MLB, DET (5/21/85): Leading the 2006 pitching draft class, which accounts for four of the top 25 on this list, Miller capped off a college season where he struck out 32.4% of the batters he face by putting up his best BB/start rate (2.22) of his UNC career. It’s only a matter of time before the lefty starts showing similar results at the next level. And sorry major league fans, Miller is not going to be coming out of the Tigers’ bullpen this year. He’ll be in the minors building arm strength.

14. Tim Lincecum, A+, SF (6/15/84): After a ridiculous 2006 college season, where he struck out 199 batters in just 125.1 innings, Lincecum fell to the Giants 10^th overall in the draft because of his small frame, unorthodox delivery, and control problems. Unfazed by the skepticism, the 5-foot-10 righthander obliterated High-A ball, allowing just 14 hits and 12 walks in his 31.2 innings while striking out 58 – 50.5% of his outs came via the strikeout. Control could be a future issue, though, as Lincecum walked 4.24 batters per start over the course of his college career.

15. Yovani Gallardo, AA, MIL (2/27/86): The Reid Brignac of pitching prospects, Gallardo entered 2006 with just 158.0 professional innings under his belt. He did manage to strike out 26.5% of the batters he faced and maintain a 1.17 WHIP in those first 158.0 innings, so he was definitely on track. But Gallardo exploded last year, striking out 36.4% and putting up a 1.00 WHIP between High-A and Double-A. In the shadow of some mammoth arms, Gallardo really is in the same league as Hughes and Bailey – shows how close No. 7-No. 15 are on this list.

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Check back on Saturday March 24 for our top 200 overall players under 25.