But theory doesn’t win fantasy championships, and neither does drafting Johan Santana in the early-mid first round, Michael Gehlken explains.
In the spirit of the game, here are three strikes for why Johan Santana should be out of your first round.
Strike One: The draft exists primarily for you to build your offense — not pitching staff
I know that it can be tough to believe as you’re savagely scouring for arms to fill out your rotation, but the draft isn’t made for you to find five or six starters who will last you the entire season. If you can leave your draft with just two, then you should consider the starting pitcher part of your draft a success. Staying smart and active on the free agency wire will take care of the rest.
On the flip
side, the same cannot be said of batters. If your eyes are on the
league prize, drafting only two consistent bats isn’t going to cut it,
and it’s much more difficult to build a balanced offense through free
agency due to the lack of power usually available. Because of that, you
will need to find power early and often while you can, hence the
importance of the first round. If you blow your early first round pick
by taking a pitcher, you will be sweating the round and a half until
your next selection in hope that a first round-quality power bat is
still available. That’s just no way to live.
Odds are a
Teixeira-type won’t drop you’re into your lap, and before you know it
you have a planetary power void that will destroy your league
championship hopes unless you can find some help from the usually
unhelpful free agent pool during the early course of the season. And
just ask yesteryear’s Chris Shelton owners how difficult it can be to
find a dependable power bat that will last thru 162 games.
Strike Two: The middle rounds are rich in pitching
Selecting
Santana so early exhibits an owner’s lack of self-confidence in his/her
ability to sort through the mid-round rubble and find a fantasy ace. If
you’re a confident owner, then you live for these middle rounds. It’s
where the novices ebb and the veterans flow. Check out the potential
steal list below my top 50 to see such names as Chris Young, Cole Hamels, Dontrelle Willis, and Matt Cain that could pay huge dividends come draft day.
Strike Three: Santana is human
That’s
right, I said it. He’s not perfect. He’s no superhero, no sure bet. And
it’s only a matter of time before he falls flat on his face as all
great pitchers have done before him. Will this be the year? Who really
knows, but it very well could be. Are you really willing to take that
risk, to fall flat with him? To skip on offense and then have nothing
to show for it?
Before you answer, take a look at Santana’s
April and July last season. In April, he had 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and
a .270 BAA. He was even worse in July, boasting a meager 4.74 ERA, a
1.37 WHIP, and a .272 BAA. Those numbers are awfully pedestrian. Do you
want to draft a pitcher who only lived up to 2/3 of his expected value
last year?
But don’t answer that just yet. Now know that the
two-time AL Cy Young Award winner has averaged over 230 innings pitched
the last three years — an unparalleled MLB workload. Now know that his
BAA and WHIP have increased in each of those three years.
Still want to spend a first round pick on a progressively worsening pitcher whose arm is sooner or later sure to break down? For your sake, I hope not.
If any accomplished, self-respecting fantasy
owners have an argument for why the game’s greatest fantasy bats should
be passed for the Venezuelan virtuoso, Michael Gehlken would love to
hear about it. Reach him at michael.gehlken@gmail.com .