Project Prospect's Top 25 Prospect List

April 30, 2007
Check back every Monday for the only weekly updated Top prospect rankings on the internet
No. Player   Pos Notes Age Org Level   Pre.
1   Phil Hughes   RHP   Was in A+ at this time last year; combined 4.87 K/BB going back to start of '06   20   NYY   MLB   4
2   Tim Lincecum   RHP   Out-of-this-world 44.43% K; BB less of a concern...may just redefine pitching   22   SF   AAA   25
3   Josh Hamilton   OF   No one could have predicted this; now that it's here, there's no denying it   25   CIN   MLB   NR
4   Alex Gordon   3B   25 K vs. 10 BB in 74 MLB ab tells you why he's struggling; will come around   23   KC   MLB   2
5   Billy Butler   OF   Best DH prospect ever continues to impress; 55 BB vs. 79 K since start of '06   21   KC   AAA   8
6   Daisuke Matsuzaka   RHP   Good bet to be top 25 SP for 3-4 yrs; Hughes, Lincecum may easily top that   26   BOS   MLB   3
7   Yovani Gallardo   RHP   Would probably lead minors in Ks again except it is almost his time to graduate   21   MIL   AAA   17
8   Brandon Wood   3B   Best chance--along with Carlos Gonzalez--of any MiLBer to be 40 HR pro   22   LAA   AAA   5
9   Jay Bruce   OF   Still King of '05 HS draft class; he's not sliding, guys around him are climbing   20   CIN   A+   7
10   Andy LaRoche   3B   Upside comparatively limited; K-zone judgement = good chance of reaching it   23   LAD   AAA   20
11   Evan Longoria   3B   Ceiling seriously rivals Gordon's; could easily be atop this list by year's end   21   TB   AA   15
12   Homer Bailey   RHP   Working out some kinks; one good start away from being in the Top 10 again   21   CIN   AAA   6
13   Jarrod Saltalamacchia   C   XBH% and BB/K ratio were solid in '06; again looking like the stud he was in '05   22   ATL   AAA   56
14   Justin Upton   OF   Blazing start has statheads and scouting guys eye-to-eye; sorry I was late   19   ARI   A+   19
15   Cameron Maybin   OF   Low XBH% says he's overrated; can he mash his way up the ranks?   20   DET   A+   9
16   Ryan Braun   3B   Revisit '06 1st vs. 2nd half for reminder of how streaky he is; red hot right now   23   MIL   AAA   18
17   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Toss out his two '07 cold-weather starts and he could be in the Top 15   19   LAD   A   34
18   Elijah Dukes   OF   Better big league start than Gordon; could drop outta here with one outburst   22   TB   MLB   45
19   Fernando Martinez   OF   Handling AA jump well--making loud contact; Tabata literally isn't in same league   18   NYM   AA   23
20   Travis Buck   OF   Injuries have limited career; now getting glimpse of how good he's without them   23   OAK   MLB   49
21   Luke Hochevar   RHP   31.1 pro innings say he's the real deal; K/BB rate is in Hughes' neighborhood   23   KC   AA   29
22   Joey Votto   1B   Resume can't be denied; doubters will believe after a Triple-A hot streak   23   CIN   AAA   30
23   James Loney   1B   Minor league slugging percentage is within 10 points of Adrian Gonzales'   22   LAD   MLB   31
24   Matt Garza   RHP   Memorable season may be taking toll on his arm; K% doesn't stand out in minors   23   MIN   MLB   21
25   Reid Brignac   SS   Has a solid line across the board, but he's only elite when you factor in position   21   TB   AA   24
                             
Honorable Mentions: Clay Buchholz, Felix Pie, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Lind, Hunter Pence, Colby Rasmus, Jacoby Ellsbury.        
Graduated (our preseason Top 25 ranking): Delmon Young (1), Troy Tulowitzki (11), Chris Young (13).                
Dropped Out (Top 25 ranking): M. Pelfrey (10), An. Miller (12), A. McCutchen (14), S. Elbert (16), C. Gonzalez (22).                
                             
* these rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it--and a mild emphasis on recent performance            
** ages are as of May, 6th 2007                    
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
**** Pre. is the player's rankings from our preseason Top 100

Disclaimer
Our in-season Top 25 rankings are a tool that we’ve chosen to implement for the first time this season. We realize that this weekly exercise cannot be as thorough as creating a Top 100 prospect list – which involves months of thought and research. So why even bother publishing these rankings? For fun.

Just like any coaches poll or other in-season rankings, our rankings won’t be as concrete as the ones that can be made when you’re looking at something somewhat after the fact. We’re still adjusting to the volatile nature of in-season rankings as well. Lists will stray far from then maybe come back to looking like our previous prospect lists. A few odd names will work their way into the rankings.

We hope to provide an entertaining glimpse of our thought process, and a snapshot of how the prospect scene changes throughout the season.

A few other important notes: 1) More than ever, we’re going to begin relying on numbers for our rankings. Perhaps we could make better lists by regularly talking to people in the industry, but that’s not our style. 2) We’ll be balancing 2006 and 2007 numbers in order to draw upon the best sample that we see fit – the same methods will be applied to each prospect.


I am prepared to answer questions in more detail upon email request,

Adam Foster
Project Prospect Founder
adamwfoster@gmail.com