Top 150 Under 25: Close Calls

This is a list of can’t-miss prospects who have gone wrong, but with the caveat that they may actually turn themselves back into something useful or oven into a pretty special player. I fully expect many of these players to bust but also expect to see some of these guys in all-star games. They just missed Project Prospect's preseason Top 150 Under 25 because of age or are named John Patterson.

Editor's Note: John wrote this piece for us back at the start of  April but I didn't have my act together back then and I'm just getting it posted now.

1. Josh Hamilton, MLB, CIN (5/21/81): Ingredients for comeback player of the decade: Selected first overall in the draft (check), ranked first overall in the BA top 100 (check), legitimate 5 tool talent (check)...three-year absence from baseball (check). While he does strikeout a lot, his plate discipline has been praised this year. Hamilton has the same upside that made scouts drool years ago, but expect just as many downs as ups in his first season in the bigs. If he keeps clean, expect big things from here on out.

2. John Patterson, MLB, WAS (1/30/78): Patterson struggled his first 3 years in the majors and it wasn’t until the Expos moved to Washington in 2005 that he finally broke out: drastically reducing his H/9, halving his HR rate, and cutting his BB/9. While it looked like a star was born, he also set a new career-high in IP with 198.1 and 2006 was a write-off. On the surface, his injury-filled 2006 looks like a major regression. But all his component numbers remained similar, except his K/9 and BB/9 which both improved significantly last year. Patterson has always been a bit fragile and hopefully the Nationals exercise a little caution with this future stud.

3. Curtis Granderson, MLB, DET (3/16/81): Granderson looked out of place at the end of the season and in the playoffs, making his very good season go unnoticed. He plays excellent defense in CF and provides a solid bat already. The common criticism for Granderson is his plate discipline, but he has had several years in the minors with very good patience (career minor league OBP of .383). Everyone is willing to overlook Sizemore posting similar BB/K ratios; when Granderson hits 25 to 30 HR’s this year expect his name to be mentioned in similar circles.

4. Anthony Reyes, MLB, STL (8/16/81): Reyes has put up excellent peripherals in pro baseball every year. And when you consider his WHIP was in the past two years in the PCL (1.08 and 0.96), you can truly appreciate how good he can be. He does like to work up in the zone and that was reflected in the 17 HR given up last year; I expect that to drop in his second time around. If he can master the sinker Dave Duncan is teaching him he could be a force as early as this year. With the Chris Carpenter elbow worries, St. Louis is really counting on him.

5. Wilson Betemit, MLB, LAD (2/11/81): Incredibly hyped from the ripe old age of 15 on, Betemit has not broken out like many predicted. He was rushed way too fast, and as a 20-year-old in AAA it showed. By the age of 23, Atlanta paid the price for this and had to play him or lose him. And all he did was put up a .794 OPS as a rookie. He put up even better numbers last year before struggling with his new team. While he doesn’t have the best discipline, he could annually put up 30 HR’s at a corner infield position.

6. Brandon Phillips, MLB, CIN (6/28/81): Acquired by Cleveland as the key player in the Bartolo Colon trade, Phillips was quickly seen as the future at 2B. He played 112 games for them in 2003, but showed he wasn’t ready. In 2004, Phillips improved his plate discipline and overall numbers, but only saw 22AB. It was rumored he was out of favor with the Cleveland brass and that was proven as he played his 3^rd full season in AAA. Picked up by Cincinnati, he blossomed in his first year with the club, showing the power/speed combo he was projected to display.

7. Dustin McGowan, AAA, TOR (3/24/82): Armed with a mid 90’s moving fastball, hammer curve, and improving change-up, it appeared McGowan was ready to join Roy Halladay on the main stage. But fate was not so kind to McGowan. The same day he was to be called up, he felt something in his elbow and the MRI revealed he would need TJ surgery.  He has recovered his velocity, but the control has yet to come back. Toronto has not helped matters either by moving him back and forth between AAA and the pros, the pen and the rotation. They were given another year of options so expect to see him in AAA most of the year. If he regains his control, they have an ace. If not then he will be a back end starter or mop up man. I don’t see much in between for him.

8. Chris Snelling, MLB, OAK (12/3/81): Snelling’s ability to hit for average while posting a solid on-base clip with power is matched only by his ability to get hurt in almost any situation. There are, however, players who are injury prone when younger and “grow out” of this phase; hopefully Snelling is one of them. Snelling was recently dealt by the Nationals to the injury-plagued Oakland A’s, where he will get an opportunity to see the field. If healthy, expect him to be a 15 to 20 HR hitter with very high OBP and good peripherals. Not the flashy numbers we look for, but very good Moneyball numbers. Think Daric Barton, Nick Johnson, Erubiel Durazo.

 9. Antonio Perez, MLB, OAK (1/26/80): Perez was part of the Ken Griffey Jr. trade back in 2002 and Lou Piniella brought him along to Tampa Bay. He flashed average, on-base ability and power for a shortstop, but eventually was moved off the position to 2B. Like many of the guys on this list, his development was stunted by injuries. In his first full season in the minors (2004), he had an OPS of 890. He had a decent year in 2005 for the Dodgers, but was traded to Oakland in the Bradley/Ethier trade. Being used as a pinch hitter last year, Perez struggled horribly and was let go.

 10. Jimmy Gobble, MLB, KC (7/19/81): This lanky lefty was selected 43rd overall by Kansas City and moved up the ranks very fast. He reached majors in 2003 at the ripe old age of 22. The next three years saw almost every quantitative number regress for him. Last year, Gobble made only small improvements in hits/9, HR/9, and BB/9. So why am I high on him? He also improved his K rate by leaps and bounds.

Note: One thing I learned making this list is that most of these players had a combination of plate discipline problems combined with injuries hurting their player development. I can now appreciate how much this affects the ability for a player to grow into how he was projected.