Last week, I introduced 10 Low-A players who already look like solid bets to be '08 Top 100 prospects. This week, I’m going to look from the reverse angle.
I've researched 10 pitchers who made 2007 Top 100 prospect lists and though they'll still likely qualify for 2008 lists, they're shaping up as questionable bets to repeat as Top 100 guys.
This column was intended to consist of any player who is on his way to falling off Top 100 lists, but all the guys who stood out are pitchers. Given that pitchers can put a bigger dent in their season after 5-8 starts than hitters can in 100-150 at-bats, I’m not too surprised...plus a greater risk of injury.
Daniel Bard, RHP, BOS (6/25/85) – Bard is among the six worst High-A pitchers in walks (22 in 13.1 IP) and ERA (10.13). Through five starts, batters are hitting .350 against him and he has only struck out 10.5% of them. We had Bard at No. 81 on our Top 100.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, PHI (3/3/87) – He’s one of the best bets of any pitcher on this list to still be a Top 100 guy in 2008, but there’s definitely room for concern. While Carrasco is coming off his best performance to date (8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, and 8 K), he has allowed seven home runs in seven innings. Our No. 67 prospect last season, Carrasco has also only struck out 19.6% of the batters he’s faced and they’re hitting .236 against him.
Cesar Carrillo, SD, RHP (4/29/84) – Carrillo withdrew from the AFL last November due to elbow soreness in his throwing arm. He had experienced a similar pain during the 2006 season and was shut down. So ranking him in a 2007 Top 100 was a huge risk – some people did even after he still couldn't pitch by the middle of Spring Training. Carrillo is now scheduled to have Tommy John surgery, and he’s going to have a long road back.
Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL (9/21/1987) – Though he had a 1.63 WHIP last summer in Rookie-ball, Jefress used a fastball that can touch 100 MPH to strike out 22.0% of the batters he faced (or 37 in 33.2 innings) and earn the No. 83 spot on our Top 100. Drafted 16th overall in 2007 – ahead of Kyle Drabek, Brett Sinkbeil, and Ian Kennedy – Jeffress is still in Extended Spring Training, literally distanced from making our ’08 Top 100.
Brad Lincoln, RHP, PIT (5/25/1985) – Derailed by Tommy John surgery, Lincoln doesn’t even have a MiLB.com player page anymore. The 6-foot-0, 200-pounder joins the ever-growing list of tough luck pitching injuries – or whatever you want to call them – that Pirates first rounders have suffered. Pittsburg has the No. 4 overall pick again this year, and logic says they’ll go after a hitter.
Humberto Sanchez, RHP, NYY (5/28/1983) – One of the first things I looked for when I was evaluating other Top 100 lists this offseason was how close to each list's Top 50 Sanchez was. The closer he was, the more concern I had about the list. If he was inside the Top 50, I took the list with a shaker of salt. He ranked 71st on our list and even that looks bad now that he’s going to have Tommy John surgery after his elbow soreness from 2006 turned out to be a bigger problem than a lot of people anticipated.
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, MIN (9/10/85) – After absolutely tanking his first two starts, Swarzak tanked anon-performance enhancement drug test. Swarzak was a fringe guy for our Top 100 in the first place. His 2.18 K/BB ratio (from 2006) is far from elite and his .242 batting average against doesn’t really shine, either. The 6-foot-3, 195-pounder will be eligible to return to the diamond around the beginning of July.
Mitch Talbot, RHP, TB (10/17/83) – Fresh off his best start of the season (6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K), Talbot still has an ugly .305 batting average against. He’s a ground-ball pitcher who can strike out batters at a passable rate (19.2% last season; 16.7% this season), so he should be able to turn it around to some degree. But Talbot ranked No. 95 on our ’07 Top 100 and doesn’t have much room for struggles if he's going to repeat.
Chris Volstad, RHP, FLA (9/23/1986) – We weren’t high on Volstad in the first place, so he has a shorter leash in this neighborhood than in others. The 6-foot-7, 190-pounder has a .316 batting average against and just a 16.9% strikeout rate through seven High-A starts. There is hope though. Volstad has averaged 6.0 innings a start, gotten a lot of ground balls, and only allowed three home runs in 42.2 innings.
Sean West, RHP, FLA (6/15/1986) – West didn’t make our 2007 Top 100, but he appeared on a lot of them. It turns out that he was trying to pitch through a damaged labrum last season. He had surgery to repair the injury and will miss the remainder of the 2007. This kind of injury can take years to recover from, so West has an uphill battle as far as ever making another Top 100.
Email Adam with who else you think is pitching their way off Top 100 prospect lists atadamwfoster@gmail.com.