“Watch that first step. It’s a Douzy!”
When it’s dawning on Bill Murray that he may be perpetually stuck reliving Groundhog Day, one of the daily events that he repeats a few times is taking a precipitous step off a sidewalk into a shin-deep puddle of icy water.
Each splash earns the sneering comment above from an insurance salesman from hell, Ned Ryerson.
Sometimes the hawks who scope out the game’s best young talent fall prey to a similarly slow learning curve.
Despite multitudes of “can’t miss” players who either struggle to become quality major leaguers or who never reach that status despite tremendous buzz as a minor league phenom, each year the prospect mavens anoint more young players too good not to succeed — and quickly.
Jeremy Hermida and Alex Gordon represent the best and the brightest of recent young starlets from whom huge things were — and are still — expected. Both were considered top-five overall prospects, and depending on whom you talk to, the best or second best prospect in all of baseball.
They wowed scouts and fans alike with gaudy on-base percentages, good power, and beautiful left-handed strokes that grooved ball after ball in Double-A.
But how’s that first step? Seamless? Um, No. Try every bit as uncomfortable as unexpectedly plunging into that slush puddle.
Technically, you could argue that Hermida’s actual first step was while walking on water rather than through it. After all, he posted a 1.017 OPS in a 41 at-bat, late season call-up in 2005.
However, as many other prospects have shown, making a confident debut after tearing up the minor leagues to face pitchers and coaching staffs completely unfamiliar with your weaknesses is a far cry from opening a brand new season in April as an expected cornerstone for a big league franchise.
Not only did Hermida flail away to a dissapointing .700 OPS (.332/.368) in 307 at-bats before a hip injury ended his 2006 season, but he looked completely devoid of any confidence or ability to make adjustments.
For a guy with such a beautiful minor league swing, Hermida rolled over pitch after pitch, either missing entirely or grounding meekly to the right side. His supporters will point to nagging injuries — the ankle that started last year’s hip problems, and the deep bruise this spring from a fouling ball off his knee that still hasn’t healed.
But the simple truth of the matter is that Hermida was more overmatched mentally than physically. His plate approach looked horrible, and last season he was an uncommonly poor right fielder, making eight errors in 166 chances.
Too often we see a player’s career OPS, listen to his manager and GM talk about his “great attitude,” and assume that results will follow. Too many prospect followers rely on internet scouting, and miss just how woeful a prospect is performing.
Gordon’s atrocious beginning to 2007 is sadly reminiscent. He has looked every bit as overmatched as his feeble .597 OPS (.317/.280) and 32 strikeouts would suggest.
While Gordon’s body of work cannot be discounted because of a dreadful beginning, his brutal struggles only reinforce the reality that a dominant minor league prospect’s first big step into the majors comes fraught with obstacles.
We expect these two players to eventually perform, to breakout and find the confident stroke that set them apart from their peers. But as we’ve seen with Hermida, that first step can drag onward for months and months.
Too many fans forget how arduous that leap into the big leagues truly is. They shouldn’t.
Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.