Reading Between the Baselines: '08 Top 100 Watch

May 18, 2007

Thanks to your feedback, I’ve decided to knuckle down and expand our Top 25 Rankings to a special one-quarter of the way through the season Top 50. And with my focus on adding to our rankings this weekend, I couldn’t help but explore something Top-50 related in this week’s Top 100 watch.

I’ve listed six players below. The first three are guys who are great bets to jump into our updated Top 50 fromoutside our preseason Top 50. The next three are players who made our preseason Top 50 but may not appear on our updated list.

Three In

Kevin Slowey, RHP, MIN (5/4/84) – At No. 55, Slowey just missed our preseason Top 50. So after a 44 K vs. 3 BB start in Triple-A, he’s a virtual lock to crack our updated Top 50. The 6-foot-3, 195-pounder out of Winthrop also has a 0.69 WHIP and 24.0% K rate. He’s a good bet to earn a big league rotation spot within the next two weeks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL (5/2/85) – We had this to say about Saltalamacchia in our Top 150 Under 25: “Expect a rebound in ’07. He had 11 XBH in his first 171 ’06 at-bats and 17 XBH in his final 142 at-bats.” The switch-hitting catcher went .309/.404/.617 in 81 Double-A at-bats before getting called to the bigs. He’s started just five times in 15 days since then – 3-for-15 with three singles.

Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS (9/9/86) – Bowden has been one of the best arms in the minors when you factor in where he’s pitching this season. Lancaster hitters slugged .562 at home vs. .403 on the road last season, and .537 at home vs. .449 on the road in 2005, so you’re looking at a park that’s very difficult to pitch in. Now in Double-A but yet to take the mound, Bowden has struck out 27.9% of the batters he’s faced, maintained a 5.75 K/BB ratio, and put up a 0.93 WHIP. What’s more: Five of his eight starts were in Lancaster.

 
Three Out

James Loney, 1B, LAD (5/7/84) – This year’s Loney has been worse than 2005 Loney. His on-base (.330) and slugging percentage (.361) are the lowest they’ve been since 2004, and he has just one home run in 155 Triple-A at-bats. Note: Keep in mind that it’s a lot harder to fall out of the Top 50 than it is to slide in, as graduating prospects allow for natural movement up the list.

Josh Fields, 3B, CHW (12/14/82) – The track record for early-round draft picks who were multi-sport athletes in college hasn’t been pretty this decade. Fields looked like he was turning the corner last year, but his ’07 start (.236/.351/.410) is surprisingly similar to his ’05 season (.252/.341/.409). Additionally, after stealing 28 bases in 33 attempts last season, the former Oklahoma State quarterback is just three-for-seven in stolen base attempts this season – one caught stealing away from matching his ’06 total.

Brandon Erbe, RHP, BAL (12/25/87) – Selecting a third falling-out guy for this column was tough. Erbe hasn’t been THAT bad, but his season is almost one-third of the way through and he’s coming off two terrible outings. Erbe’s 1.40 K/BB rate hardly screams elite prospect. Either he’s hurt or he has some major hurdles ahead, and neither situation makes him a favorable choice as a Top 50 repeat.

Feel free to email Adam at adamwfoster@gmail.com with other players who you think are sliding or climbing up the prospect ranks.