Project Prospect's Top 50 Rankings Update

May 21, 2007
Check back every Monday for the only weekly updated Top 25 prospect rankings on the internet
No. Player   Pos Notes Age Org Level   Pre.
1   Tim Lincecum   RHP   Could be better than Oswalt, as he showed last week (7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 10 K)   22   SF   MLB   1
2   Phil Hughes   RHP   Expect him to be healthy and done w/ rehab in time to join Yankees around July   20   NYY   MLB   2
3   Yovani Gallardo   RHP   Has had 3 one-hit outings (6.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 11 K last week); MILB K leader (66)   21   MIL   AAA   6
4   Billy Butler   OF/1B   He's played first base in all four games since returning to AAA last Thursday   21   KC   MLB   3
5   Jay Bruce   OF   2008 No. 1 overall prospect favorite has 2B in last 5 games (all multi-hit days)   20   CIN   A+   7
6   Evan Longoria   3B   After .286/.419/.536 in 84 April at-bats, he's .365/.467/.651 in 63 May at-bats   21   TB   AA   9
7   Brandon Wood   3B   Striking out once every 3.30 ab after fanning once every 3.04 ab last season   22   LAA   MLB   8
8   Josh Hamilton   OF   4-for-14 last week (all singles) before being hospitalized with Gastroenteritis   26   CIN   MLB   5
9   Clay Buchholz   RHP   His 4.83 K/BB ratio since the start of 2006 is better than Phil Hughes' (4.67)   22   BOS   AA   12
10   Justin Upton   OF   Kind of funny that people are surprised after he hasn't hit a HR for 4 games   19   ARI   AA   11
11   Colby Rasmus   OF   Went 8-for-22 last week and hit a HR on Sat; .304/.391/.561 w/ 51.1% XBH   20   STL   AA   19
12   Homer Bailey   RHP   Gordon & Matsuzaka graduations create mirage that he's improving...he's not   21   CIN   AAA   14
13   Andy LaRoche   3B   If Adam & him were competing for a roster spot, Adam would end up /w STL   23   LAD   MLB   13
14   Jarrod Saltalamacchia   C   Had first pro XBH on Sat (a 2B), he's now 6-for-21 with 4 BB vs. 2 K in bigs   22   ATL   MLB   15
15   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Rebounds from 1.1 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 2 K start w/ 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K   19   LAD   A   20
16   Cameron Maybin   OF   Went 8-for-22 last week but hasn't hit a HR since Apr 17; .320/.439/.490   18   DET   A+   20
17   Fernando Martinez   OF   Finger injury kept him out over weekend; MLB.com thinks he's Carlos Gomez   18   NYM   AA   16
18   Hunter Pence   OF   Eight-game hitting streak has him at .364/.402/.675 in bigs; 20 HR guy in 2007?   24   HOU   MLB   23
19   Ryan Braun   3B   Returned from groin/wrist injuries on Sat and went 2-for-7 over the weekend   23   MIL   AAA   18
20   Travis Buck   OF   Seven-for-16 week w/ 2B, 2 3B, and a HR; .245 average will come around   23   OAK   MLB   22
21   Kevin Slowey   RHP   Walked two batters last week for first time since 8/13/06; 7.44 K/BB since '06   23   MIN   AAA   NR
22   Michael Bowden   RHP   Double-A debut: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K…he's keeping pace with Buchholz   20   BOS   AA   NR
23   Will Inman   RHP   His 30.52% K and 5.24 K/BB since '06 stand WAY out among his peers   20   MIL   A+   24
24   Elijah Dukes   OF   His .222/.338/.452 MLB line is slightly dissapointing; has stayed out of trouble   22   TB   MLB   NR
25   Felix Pie   OF   Hit .415/.479/.598 in 82 AAA at-bats and people can't call you raw anymore   22   CHC   MLB   25
26   Reid Brignac   SS   Some say he's dissapointing; Reality: he was overhyped in many circles   21   TB   AA   28
27   Adam Miller   RHP   His 23.89% K since '06 spells strong No. 3 more than future ace; .228 BAA ('07) 22   CLE   AAA   31
28   Carlos Gomez   OF   On 3/24/07, we said "Tools to be 3/4 Reyes but in the OF," … that's happening   21   NYM   MLB   72
29   Andrew Miller   LHP   6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K in '07 MLB debut…may be on the cusp of breakout   22   DET   MLB   12
30   Joey Votto   1B/OF   .391/.469/.565 w/ 3 HR in 69 May ab; back on track & Cin trying to find room   23   CIN   AAA   26
31   Adam Jones   OF   His .303/.392/.493 performance is a solid improvement over .287/.345/.484 '06   21   SEA   MLB   51
32   Jacoby Ellsbury   OF   Too good for AA, but has slowed in AAA; 7-for18 last week; last HR 9/4/06   23   BOS   AAA   32
33   Andrew McCutchen   OF   Struggles continue, 2 XBH in last 34 at-bats; .181/.247/.333 w/ 12 BB vs. 37 K   20   PIT   AA   14
34   Travis Snider   OF   .362/.397/.572 line and he's just starting to heat up…2 HR (3) in last 3 games   19   TOR   A   46
35   Jose Tabata   OF   Wrist injuries plaguing him? 15.6% XBH says yes; .300/.369/.373 line in 150 ab   18   NYY   A+   26
36   Jacob McGee   LHP   0 ER in 5 of 9 starts + 31.4% K = studly; 2.65 K/BB = mildly concerning   20   TB   A+   59
37   Elvis Andrus   SS   Leap from 27.6% XBH in A ('06) to 32.4% XBH so far in A+ is promising   18   ATL   A+   60
38   Matt Garza   RHP   Compare his '07 AAA line to Tyler Clippard's…Clip has been better + is younger   23   MIN   MLB   21
39   Nick Adenhart   RHP   .250 BAA in AA is solid for 20-year-old, 1.66 K/BB ratio is not; 1.35 WHIP   20   LAA   AA   28
40   Luke Hochevar   RHP   After strong April, '07's No. 1 overall pick has 1.81 WHIP in his last four starts   23   KC   AA   29
41   Billy Rowell   1B   Orioles said he could return very soon, we've been waiting to hear that all year!   18   BAL   SS   52
42   Carlos Gonzalez   OF   Remember Qs on who would be odd man out in ARI OF? You're looking at him.   21   ARI   AA   22
43   Lars Anderson   1B   Instantly adjusting to pro ball; .315/.398/.486 through 146 at-bats…future stud   19   BOS   A   99
44   Jeff Niemann   RHP   His .259 BAA and 24.4 K% for 24-year-old in AAA are solid, not staggering   24   TB   AAA   35
45   Jaime Garcia   LHP   25.42 K% and 3.00 K/BB since start of '06; among youngest players in AA   20   STL   AA   NR
46   Daric Barton   1B   Putting up line that's similar to Buck's just w/ less pop… .233/.352/.367   21   OAK   AAA   30
47   Brett Anderson   LHP   07's 55th overall pick is shredding in full-season debut: 58 K vs. 6 BB in 48.1 IP   19   ARI   A   NR
48   Eric Hurley   RHP   With his 0.54 GO/AO rate, MLB could be difficult; hard to ignore upside   21   TEX   AA   63
49   Phil Humber   RHP   His .242 BAA and 19.5 K% for 24-year-old in AAA are a little dissapointing   24   NYM   AAA   44
50   Ian Stewart   3B   2006 46.7% XBH was promising, '07 24.4% XBH leaves a lot to be desired   22   COL   AAA   53
Honorable Mentions: Scott Elbert, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rick Vanden Hurk, Bryan Anderson, James Loney, Wade Davis, Deolis Guerra, Chris
Marrero, Carlos Triunfel, Dexter Fowler, Brandon Erbe, Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Lubanski, Troy Patton, Tommy Hanson, Joba Chamberlain,
Greg Reynolds, Tyler Clippard, John Whittleman, and Neil Walker.                
Graduated (last week's ranking): Alex Gordon (4), Daisuke Matsuzaka (10), and Mike Pelfrey (NR).                
Dropped Out of Top 25 (previous ranking): None.                
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it                
** Only players with less than 130 pro at-bats or less than 50 pro innings are considered for our rankings                
*** Ages are as of May 27th, 2007                    
**** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
***** Pre. is the player's rankings from last week's Top 25 or our preseason Top 100 (gray).                
                             
<<< Click here to see our May 14th Top 25 Rankings                

 

Disclaimer
Our in-season Top 25 rankings are a tool that we’ve chosen to implement for the first time this season. We realize that this weekly exercise cannot be as thorough as creating a Top 100 prospect list – which involves months of thought and research. So why even bother publishing these rankings? For fun.

Just like any coaches poll or other in-season rankings, our rankings won’t be as concrete as the ones that can be made when you’re looking at something somewhat after the fact. (We’re still adjusting to the volatile nature of in-season rankings as well.) Lists will stray far from then maybe come back to looking like our previous prospect lists. A few odd names will work their way into the rankings--emphasis is on recent performance.

Think of these rankings like a giant coliseum battle. Everyone will be going after everyone; the air will be cluttered with dust. Then our Top 100 prospect list will be our take once the dust settles. Until then, just remember that's we're trying to judge a battle while it's still in progress.

We hope to provide an entertaining glimpse of our thought process, and a snapshot of how the prospect scene changes throughout the season.

A few other important notes: 1) More than ever, we’re going to begin relying on numbers for our rankings. Perhaps we could make better lists by regularly talking to people in the industry, but that’s not our style. 2) We’ll be balancing 2006 and 2007 numbers in order to draw upon the best sample that we see fit – the same methods will be applied to each prospect.


I am prepared to answer questions in more detail upon email request,

Adam Foster
Project Prospect Founder
adamwfoster@gmail.com