While we here at Project Prospect have our fingers on the beat of all things
Minor Leagues, it doesn't mean that we just forget about our boys once
they graduate to actual major league rookies and beyond.
Listed below are players who have exhausted their rookie eligibility during the 2007 Major League Baseball season thus far. We take
a look at what they're doing now, what they've done in the minors in
the past, and if they are cutting out their biggest flaws on their way to being successful big league ball players.
Delmon Young - OF -Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Born 9/14/85 - Age 21
Delmon Young is a name everyone who follows minor league baseball knows well. For the past few seasons, he has mashed, ran and thrown his way to prospector's hearts. Late last season, the Rays finally called the California Kid up to the Big Leagues and he has been entrenched in their lineup since. His performance has been a mixed bag of results to this point.
Last year, Young hit .317/.336/.476 in 126 big league at-bats while socking three homers and stealing a couple of bases. This year: Delmon checks in .234/.279/.377 with six long balls and 22 RBI. Those are not awful numbers, but they are not the numbers we were expecting to see from a guy who is often compared to former Indians slugger Albert Belle.
So whats the problem? His plate discipline really has not improved all that much like many had hoped. He's still a little too much of a free swinger, with his K% this year approaching 22%. The good news? He still has a rocket for an arm and nobody in the league even considers running on him most of the time, and when they do, they are often sent back to the dugout shaking their heads.
Another positive thing is Yougn plays for Tampa Bay and there's realistically no chance that they'll play anyone else over him this year. So he'll continue to trot out there every time they lace 'em up. Young just needs to stop swinging at every pitch that is remotely near the plate and start being a little more selective. The tools are there, he's just using them like a 7th grader in woodshop right now. As our No. 1 prospect entering the season, Young needs to get a move on and start living up to his immense potential.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Boston Red Sox - Born 9/13/80 -Age 26
Dice-K, the Japanese import everyone fell over themselves to bid on last year, has finally arrived in the United States. Roughly one-quarter through his first big league season, life has been been somewhat mixed sashimi for the Gyroball master. Through eight starts, he's sitting at 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA and a 52/18 K to BB ratio in 54.0 innings. He is giving up about a homer every 12 innings so he has kept the long ball in check for now.
Those numbers are impressive most definitely, but the thing with Dice-K is he could be even better. He has an issue with command from time to time, and he doesn't just walk a few guys, he completely loses the strike zone. I have tried to pay close attention to his starts to see if there is a pattern or method to his madness and I think it's just him losing focus. He has terrific stuff and locates extremely well for the most part. He throws an upwards of five pitches for strikes anywhere in the count, and can crank up his fastball into the mid to high 90's (depending on if you're watching the game on ESPN with their generous radar readings or not).
Before
the season, we really didn't know what to expect from Matsuzaka. He had
played in the Japanese league for his whole career, where we have seen
others dominate and then flop in the Majors. I think the Red Sox have
got to be happy with their investment, as Matsuzaka looks like a strong
kid with a really bright future. If he can find a comfort level in the
states and limit his "lost innings," from what we've seen in eight
starts he can be a perennial dominator. As our No. 3 prospect to start
the season, Matsuzaka has lived up to his pre-season billing and still
even may have room to grow.
Chris Young - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - Born 9/5/83 - Age 23
We were pretty high on Chris Young entering 2007. We ranked him as our No. 13 prospect and said he could go 15/15 as a rookie but may not hit over .275 as a first year player. So far, we are right on the ball with young Mr. Young. Through 132 at-bats, Young has hit at a .268 clip with six homers, 20 RBI and six steals. Projected over the full season, that has him at 22 homers and 22 steals, a solid 20-20 pace. He might slump at some point, but overall he's been pretty solid with the tree trunk in his mitts.
Young has been lights out defensively, and the Diamondbacks pitchers have already grown to love him. He covers a ton of ground in center and has a good enough throwing arm to keep runners honest.
Young's main issue before the season was the same as many young up and comers: the strikeout. He's still having issues with it, striking out roughly three times to every base on balls he commandeers. As a leadoff man, you'd like to see Young put up a better than a .307 OBP, but the power and speed have been there so you can't just flat out complain. He has room to grow and it looks like he may finally begetting comfortable at the plate, as he has batted .417 over the past 10 games.
His
Triple-A numbers from last season look right on point with his current
projections, as Young finished 2006 at .276 21 HR 78 RBI 17 SB. The
only thing lagging is his walks, as he posted a decent 71:52 K to BB
ratio in the minors last year - this year in the big leagues he's at
21:7. But he's young and in the major leagues for the first time, so
you have to cut him a bit of slack. He'll be a solid player for years
to come and might develop a little more pop than most people are
expecting.
Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies - Born 10/10/1984 - Age 22
Drafted in 2005 out of Long Beach State, Troy Tulowitzki was often hit with the Bobby Crosby comparisons coming out of college. As a Colorado Rockies draft pick, offensive baseball fans had to be drooling at the thought of how his bat would play at Coors. We had him ranked at No. 11 in our Pre-Season Top 100. So far, the biggest news he has made on the diamond has been an unassisted triple play he turned against the Atlanta Braves on April 29, 2007. Being that there's probably as good a chance of him getting struck by lightning as there was of him turning an unassisted triple play, we figured it was worth mentioning.
At the plate, the results have not been as impressive. Through 136 AB's, Tulo is coming in at .243 with 2 HR and 19 RBI. He has a 32:13 K to BB ratio, which is also very blasé, although not too far off from his minor league numbers either.
Last year in AA, he hit .291/.360/.473 -- pretty good for a SS, but not earth shattering. Still, there was a lot of projection there. This year in the show he's at the previously mentioned .243 along with a .316 OBP and a .353 SLG...OK if your name is Alvaro Espinosa, but not what we were expecting from the 6-foot-3, 215-pound big guy. Right now he's on pace to hit .242 with 8 HR and 66 RBI on a Colorado team with some decent bats, and that would be a mild disappointment.
Tulowitzki
does have one thing going for him, however. He is still pretty green
in the major leagues, having only had 96 at-bats this year and the
previously mentioned 136 so far this season, that's still less than 300 at-bats in a big league batters box. He is going to need some time and with Clint Barmes toiling away in Triple-A, it looks like the Rockies are going to give it to him.
Adam Lind - OF - Toronto Blue Jays - Born 7/17/1983 - Age 23
Adam Lind is one of those ballplayers you just love to watch hit. He's got
a smooth stroke and he just looks impressive out there. I have to
admit I was a bit surprised that Toronto called him up as early as they did. When he got optioned to the minor leagues in Spring Training, I figured he would stay there for the most of the first half of the season, but injuries arose and they began trotting him out there everyday.
So far, he has not hit in the Major Leagues like he did in the minors. In 2006, Lind put on a show in Double-A and Triple-A. In 348 at-bats in Double-A, he hit .310/.357/.543 with 19 HR and 71 RBI. After getting promoted to Triple-A, he tore the cover off the ball in 109 at-bats, hitting .394/.500/.596. It was only 109 at-bats, but a .500 OBP -- that's absurd! So you can see why the Blue Jays thought so highly of this kid coming into the 2007 season.
In 112 Major League at-bats this year, he's at .230/.285/.381. He's hit four over the wall and has 12 RBI. Not a great start to his year,
but he's not in Alex Gordon territory yet. The thing that is
interesting about Lind is his eye really improved upon moving up to
Triple-A late last season. Again, it was a small sample size, but anytime you see a guy who posts more bases on balls than strikeouts in either the high minors or the major leagues, it opens your eyes.
Alex Gordon - 3B - Kansas City Royals - Born 2/10/1984 - Age 23
A
corn fed Nebraskan, Alex Gordon was one of the most hyped prospects to
come along in quite some time. As an amateur at the University of
Nebraska and then in Double-A, he authored a blazing trail of success
matched by few prospects in their rise to the big leagues. His 2006
season looked like this: .325/.412/.588. Yes, that's an OPS of over
1.000. You just don't see that too often in the higher levels of the
minor leagues. Oh, did I mention that he hit 29 HR, drove in 111, and
even tossed in 22 steals for good measure? If you looked up "stud" in
the dictionary, his picture would have been in the column to the left
of the definition.
But along the way something happened.
Gordon had a great spring training, but once the bullets started flying for real, he went into a tailspin which is still whirling around to this day. As of right now, he's hitting .177 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 132 at-bats. In a word: yuck. He has gone weeks at a time without even driving in a run and there are some pitchers in the National League handedly out slugging him.
So what's the problem with young Alex? Well, he's striking out almost 32% of the time and has a 1 to 3 BB/K ratio. There's only one logical explanation here and it's that he's pressing and trying to impress. He has no known injuries. He has an abundance of talent -- right now he's probably one of the most talented players in the American League. He is just in a serious funk and he's not confident or brash enough yet to snap himself out of it. It's probably been years since he had to handle any sort of adversity.
The
past few days he has been hitting the ball hard and driving it a little
better, so maybe by this time next month his struggles will be a thing
of the past. But one thing is certain: the Royals or any team in the
Major Leagues can ill afford to have an everyday player hitting .167
and only driving in 5 runs in 2 months. Something's gotta give pretty
soon with Gordon, and a trip to the minors to get his head on straight
is not out of the question here.
Mike Pelfrey - SP - New York Mets - Born 1/14/1984 - Age 23
Mike
Pelfrey is a 6-foot-7 inch monster who imposes batters on the mound at
Shea Stadium in Flushing, New York every 5th day. Well, at least that
is something you'd like to read on the back of his baseball card. The
truth of the matter is, Pelfrey is not really intimidating anyone right
now.
A first round draft pick of the Mets, Pelfrey was thought of as a possible No. 2 starter coming out of Wichita State. It seems along the way Pelfrey forgot how to strike people out and instead starting handing out walks like they were demo CD's outside a rap concert. His K/9 went from 10.64 in A to 10.45 in AA to 6.75 in AAA to 5.48 in the majors in 2006. At the same time, his walk rates went from 0.82 in A to 3.53 in AA to 5.63 in AAA to 5.06 in the majors also in 2006. Someone needs to tell the big guy its supposed to happen the other way, where you improve your command, not regress to dangerous levels.
In 2007 with the Mets, Pelfrey is only striking out 3.86 per 9 innings and he's walking 5.04. That is just not acceptable for a big league starter on any team, let alone a big market club like the New York Mets. You're probably sitting at your computer saying, enough already -- I can find stats - what is the cause of all this? Well, the thing with Pelfrey is he lacks both command and a decent repertoire. Right now, he is really strictly a fastball-slider pitcher, with neither pitch a dominant out pitch. His fastball has good velocity, but its pin straight at times and he has trouble locating his slider and throwing it when behind in the count. So if you get ahead of him, you sit dead red and mash away.
Some teams would not be too far from considering that Pelfrey may have a bigger future in the bullpen than in the starting rotation. I'm not saying he's a wash or a bust yet, but he needs some time on the farm to develop maybe a cutter or a solid changeup -- something to keep the hitters guessing a little bit. You can't teach size or velocity and he has both of those, but right now that's about all he's got going for him.
Chris Loupos can be reached at loopdog1@aol.com.