Can plate discipline be taught?
That’s the question – along with its nebulous answer – which has altered the baseball landscape. The notoriousMoneyball articulated a growing belief that no, the odds are against prospects learning plate discipline.
Billy Beane and Paul Depodesta specifically targeted hitters whom many scouts considered to be mediocre prospects in the Athletics’ 2002 draft. This was precisely because each hitter’s performance showed an advanced knowledge and ability to work counts, draw walks, and get on base.
The general manager and his assistant drew the proverbial line in the sand: Forget “projecting” plate discipline. Even if a player is a physical marvel with eye-catching talents, he still has more uncertainty then a player missing flashy tools but with exceptional plate discipline.
With the possible disadvantages of focusing on disciplined hitters in the draft as our focus, let’s examine a case study of a player from that 2002 draft who represents a perfect talking point for this debate.
The Braves took Jeff Francoeur 23rd overall. A 6-foot-4, breathtaking high school baseball and football player, Francoeur and his impressive athleticism screamed “major league star.” Still, a propensity to swing from his heels – at anything – and rely on his natural talent to make up the difference made Francoeur just the sort of prospect Beane avoided.
Francoeur’s development mirrors what both his admirers and detractors predicted. The outfield prospect hit for average and hit for power at of his minor league each stops, impressing many with his physical skill set along the way. He also struck out 262 times while drawing just 88 walks in 1,416 at-bats.
After posting just a .330 on-base percentage over the course of approximately three full minor league seasons, Francoeur jumped into the majors with a torrid half-season in 2005. His 35 extra-base hits in just 257 at-bats made for a robust .549 slugging percentage. Less eye-popping was Francoeur’s 11-to-58 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
That ratio ballooned to 23-132 in 2006. The then 22-year-old swung at most anything, looking woefully overmatched. But his natural ability to make things happen did shine through, as his OPS with runners in scoring position was .845 – a huge leap from his anemic .694 with the bases empty. Consequently, the free-swinginger drove in 102 runs.
Still, Francoeur’s plate discipline left him with plenty of doubters – including a few of my fellow writers here at Project Prospect.
This winter I found myself wondering whether a 23-year-old could adapt quickly, i.e. make things “click.” Some Sabremetricians would scoff at this notion.
I looked at former AL MVP Juan Gonzalez, who during his first two full major league seasons posted OBP’s of .321 and .304 in a combined 1,129 at-bats. Gonzalez had a career minor league OBP of .319 over 2,064 at-bats. In his second full season, Gonzalez managed to hit 43 home runs with an OBP of .304 – an awfully rare feat.
Could Francoeur make a similar leap? I thought the odds weren’t actually that low. I thought his talent and hard work gave him a chance to be better then fellow 23-year-olds Jeremy Hermida and Nick Markakis.
So far in 2007 Francoeur has made an adjustment. Whether it will last is yet another debate. But his OBP through 45 games is .363 and, more impressively, his OPS with RISP is 1.093 – including a staggering 1.315 with RISP and two outs.
Clearly, Francoeur has developed a stronger command of the strike zone, at least for two months. Without a runner on base, his OBP is still .295, illustrating a continuing problem with impatience. But his dramatic improvements with runners on base signify a hitter who knows how to work himself in position to receive the fastball he wants to drive.
His plate discipline with runners on base has been superb, as evidenced by his nine walks and 11 strikeouts. Compare that to last year’s 14-to-51 ratio, and we see that Francoeur has indeed learned some plate discipline, particularly in valuable situations. It’s not a seismic shift yet, but it is a very interesting start.
Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.