The Midweek Crisis: Major League Reality Check

May 30, 2007

America’s pastime is a game of patience, but this big league season leaves us stuck in fast-forward. Approximately a third of the way into the campaign, take a gander at the Major League statistical leader boards.

You’ll find the names you’d expect to see (we’ll leave them out of this discussion), as well as those that leave you scratching your head just a bit. With hitters nearing or surpassing 200 at-bats and pitchers amassing the 10-start plateau, I’ll let you know which players will enjoy continued success, as well as which sell-high guys you can expect to fall back onto earth by season’s end.  

Here to stay: 

Alex Rios, OF, Toronto Blue Jays 

Memo to those who have been waiting for Rios to grow into his 6-foot-5 frame since his rookie year in 2005: Alex Rios has arrived. Rios, 26, is proving that his quick start to the campaign last year was no fluke. Hailing from Coffee, Ala., Rios had just 28 HR in 1357 big league at-bats (48.4 AB/HR) entering 2007. Rios has started off the new year the right way, launching 11 long balls in 199 at-bats (18.1 AB/HR) this season. Currently on pace for 36 HR and sporting a .302/.359/.538 vital line, the Alex Rios we’ve all been waiting for has arrived on the national scene – Canada, too.   

James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 

Just as the budding Devil Ray faithful were drooling over a future rotation from Scott Kazmir to potentially David Price, enter James Shields. A native of Newhall, Calif, Shields, 25, has started 10 contests for Tampa Bay, posting a .215 opponent’s average en route to a 1.01 WHIP. The 6-foot-4, 214-pound righty’s success shouldn’t come as a surprise; Shields posted a ridiculous 64:6 strikeout to walk clip in 10 Triple-A starts in 2006. Pair an impressive minor league track record with a rampant start to the 2007 big league campaign and James Shields is here to stay.   

B.J. Upton, 2B/UTL, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 

While everyone was getting ready to pull the plug on his future this past off-season, B.J. Upton was preparing to make his breakout push. Prior to 2007, Upton went .251/.312/.347 in 95 big league contests. And now, at a mere 22 years of age, Upton currently holds a .323/.401/.547 vital line as the Devil Rays second baseman this season. A 6-foot-3, 180-pounder, Upton is still a newborn in the Major League scheme of things. Just know that this kid is here to make noise as a perennial all-star.   

J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers 

Readers were scratching their heads after we named J.J. Hardy, 24, to our Top 150 Under 25 list (no. 106). Looks like we weren’t high enough. Hardy, who hit 14 HR in 159 games in his first two Major League campaigns, has already amassed his career total with 15 long balls in 2007. While he will never maintain the 49-HR pace he holds today, J.J. Hardy is now performing like the all-star he had the potential to be. His .299/.348/.578 line will see a loss in slugging points soon enough, but J.J. Hardy can be a top-five shortstop on the Major League scene for a long time.     

The daydream is over:  

Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta Braves 

Kelly Johnson, 25, popped the cork on 2007 the right way, doing a vintage Alfonso Soriano-like impression at second base with his .326/.473/.593 vitals. In May, however, Kelly Johnson has remembered that he’s Kelly Johnson, falling off to a .229/.288/.385 clip. While the 6-foot-1, 205-pounder will still be a very serviceable player at second, expect more months resembling his May than his April start. Johnson currently holds a .276/.385/.481 vital line; shave that slugging clip down and we’re right on target for a solid big league second baseman.    

Jason Marquis, SP, Chicago Cubs 

Jason Marquis is pitching like a man who signed a three-year, 21-million dollar contract. But don’t worry; the curse of the Cubbies will be in full effect shortly. There is no logical explanation as to why Marquis, 28, has started off 2007 by going 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Maquis posted a 6.02 ERA last year, allowing a .289 opponent’s average. With opposing batters holding a mere .197 success rate in 2007, it doesn’t take a whole lot of effort to realize that that number is going back up. That being said, Jason Marquis is a solid no. 3-4 starter – a far cry from the ace he’s pitching like 10 starts into the 2007 campaign.   

Chad Gaudin, SP, Oakland Athletics 

This just in: Chad Gaudin, 24, has the fourth-best ERA (2.32) in Major League Baseball. After serving as a setup man for the A’s in 2006, Gaudin has become an ace in 2007, nabbing 5 wins and posting a 1.21 WHIP. Remember that Gaudin had made a grand total of 10 starts in his four-year career coming into 2007. This isn’t to say the 5-foot-10, 180-pounder is destined to return to the bullpen, just that he’s not the top of the food chain starter he appears to be. Once the mirage fades away and his mysteries are solved, Chad Gaudin becomes a solid arm near the end of any rotation.      

Jack Cust, DH/OF, Oakland Athletics   

After clubbing six home runs in his first seven games (which felt like seven minutes) with the Oakland A’s, Jack Cust appears to have ended his best Chris Shelton impersonation. Cust, 28, has just one long ball to his credit in his past 11 contests. While his career will resemble his current batting average (.235) far more than his on-base (.429) or slugging (.647) clips, it doesn’t mean that the legend of Jack Cust comes to rest here. A 6-foot-1, 231-pounder, Cust has a minor league line of .285/.429/.514 to his credit, showing that he was an opportunity away from an impact such as this one.  

Feel the need to ride the ups and downs of the Major League roller coaster even longer? Email Adam Loberstein at adamloberstein@gmail.com  for a free ticket.