Reading Between the Baselines: '08 Top 100 Watch

June 1, 2007

Between emails and our forums, I’ve been hearing from a lot of people who want to know which 2007 draftees will blossom as top prospects entering 2008. I’ll cover that topic in detail next week. Until then, here’s all you need to know:

To find instant fantasy gold in the draft, just focus on the top half of the first round.

Twelve of the fifteen 2006 draft picks who made our Top 100 prospect list were first rounders. And nine of those 12 were top 15 overall picks.

Joba Chamberlain (41st overall), Dellin Betances (254th), and Lars Anderson (553rd) were the only non-first rounders who made our Top 100. Of course, there are a lot of examples of players who weren’t drafted in the first round and still went on to become elite big leaguers. But for the sake of finding players who will have fantasy value immediately, adding almost anyone who was drafted outside of the first 15 picks is a likely waste of a roster spot.

Let’s take things a step further and check up on the eighteen 2006 first rounders who didn’t make our 2007 Top 100 (pick No. in parenthesis):

Greg Reynolds, RHP, COL (No. 2): Limiting hitters to .185 batting average in Double-A, but just 19.7% K. Candidate for mid to back end of ’08 Top 100.

Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN (No. 8): Not impressing (.273/.372/.418) and he’s only in Low-A. Reds fans have to watch him struggle while Tim Lincecum (No. 10) is turning into a phenom.

Max Scherzer, RHP, ARI (No. 11)Signed minutes before deadline or would have re-entered draft. Has a lot to prove as a prospect.

Kasey Kiker, LHP, TEX (No. 12): Five-foot-10, 170-pounder gets tons of strikeouts but has 42 walks in 65.1 pro innings. Potential to be in the middle-half of ’08 Top 100.

Tyler Colvin, OF, CHC (No. 13): A level higher than Stubbs and hitting well (.299/.333/.478). Needs better power numbers to rank in top half of ’08 Top 100.

Chris Marrero, OF, WAS (No. 15): Earned an honorable mention for my quarter-season Top 50 list due to huge May power surge – 11 HR. Walk-to-strikeout rate (0.33) is a concern.

Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD (No. 17): Four home runs in last 10 games have him up to .307/.412/.490 in High-A. Becoming strong candidate for top half of next year’s Top 100.

Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI (No. 18): Consistency is a major concern. Could jump into ’08 Top 75 if he’s merely solid from here on out.

Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA (No. 19)Forearm strain already sidelined him for more than a month this season. Just an 18.2% pro strikeout rate.

Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN (No. 20): Barely missed the cut for our ’07 Top 100. Was not in the picture for my recent Top 50 – even as one of the 20 honorable mentions. He’s .234/.318/.429 in Low-A.

Ian Kennedy, RHP, NYY (No. 21): Has been dealing. His 30.3% K in High-A gives ’06 draftitis rumors merit. He’s healthy, so an ‘07 call-up seriously isn’t out of the question.

Colton Willems, RHP, WAS (No. 22): Only pitched 16.0 Rookie-ball innings last season (1.63 WHIP, 8 K). In Extended Spring Training now.

Max Sapp, C, HOU (No. 23): Unimpressive in ’06 short-season and first month in Low-A. But .337/.409/.458 May is a positive sign– though still homer-less as a pro. May sneak onto back of ’08 Top 100.

Cody Johnson, 1B, ATL (No. 24): Didn’t earn a full-season roster spot after .184/.260/.281 ’06 Rookie-ball performance. Short-season bound?

Bryan Morris, RHP, LAD (No. 26): 27.7% K in Rookie-ball last year, but will miss all of this season afterhaving TJ.

Jason Place, OF, BOS (No. 27): Power coming along fine, K’s are the problem. Had 35 K in April vs. 29 K in May. He’s .213/.287/.379 overall, and far from making any Top 100s.

Kyle McCulloch, RHP, CHW (No. 29): 15.1% K in High-A says it all.

Adam Ottavino, RHP, STL (No. 30): While his 2.33 K/BB rate is a sign for concern, 29.9% K in High-A is attractive. Potential for back half of ’08 Top 100 – 1.45 WHIP.

Which '06 first rounders do you think will make '08 Top 100 lists? Email me at adamwfoster@gmail.com.