Prospect Focus: The Real Deal?

June 16, 2007

When a young pitcher has his first extended run of success there is an immediate question of whether or not his emergence is legitimate. There are many questions that arise: 

Are hitters simply one adjustment away from pounding him? Is his control always this good? Is his stuff this good? 

All this leads to one larger question: Is he the real deal? Is he ready to be a reliable, quality pitcher for years to come, or is there something amiss? 

Let’s look at two young pitchers whose slow development seems finally to be paying dividends. 

Rich Hill: 

This time last year Hill had been sent down to Triple-A Iowa – at the ripe age of 26 –
after being shelled all last spring. The 6-foot-5 lefthander baffled all of us because he’d follow up dominant stretches in the minor leagues with horrendous starts up with the Cubs.   

Given that by age 26 he had yet to assert himself at the major league level at all, many wondered whether a ten-cent head might in fact derail the million-dollar arm from showing through.  

Late last summer, though, we saw Hill make 12 starts and allow just a .205 BAA while striking out 79 and walking just 24 in 80 innings. His breakthrough led a lot of analysts to forecast huge success for 2007 and Hill has pretty much delivered. 

In his first 13 starts this year his BAA is at .198, his WHIP at 1.01, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 78:26 through 86.1 innings.  

It would appear that Hill is the real deal. The several years it took him to fully harness his control and his temperament stand as a testament that pitching prospects can be very late bloomers. 

Dustin McGowan: 

Is there another Hill on the horizon? McGowan turned 25 this March, but perhaps he really came of age on May 23 in Baltimore.  

Since going in to Camden Yards and making his first quality start of the season – allowing three earned runs while scattering eight hits and walking two – the 6-foot-3 righty has made four more consecutive quality outings. He completely outshined Tim Lincecum Wednesday, matching his high velocity – as well as his four walks – successfully limiting the Giants to two runs in six innings of work. 

McGowan’s a guy who, like Hill before him, infuriates analysts. His stuff is simply too good for a guy who’s struggled so severely over the past few years. He works at 94-97 MPH with his fastball, often showing a respectable curveball and slider. His control has come and gone, along with his confidence. 

Baffled themselves, the Blue Jays have moved him back and forth from rotation to bullpen as well as from Syracuse to Toronto. 

Finally, though, it seems that McGowan might have figured things out. Those watching his last five starts have seen a very easy delivery yield an exploding fastball consistently at 95 MPH or above. And while his curve and slider vary from start to start, McGowan has been able to adjust on the mound to what stuff he has that day. As a result he’s finally keeping crooked numbers off the scoreboard. 

There are reasons to be wary, though. McGowan’s a Type I diabetic, which is a much more difficult to battle then the more typical type II variant. He also had Tommy John surgery in 2004 and hasn’t thrown more than 112 innings in a year since. 

Still, when McGowan’s pounding the zone with a Homer Bailey-esque fastball and dropping his curve and slider low in the zone he looks very much the real deal, too.

Nick Christie can be reached at nickchristie@gmail.com.