Project Prospect's Top 75 Rankings Update

August 6, 2007
Check back every Monday for the only regularly updated in-season prospect rankings on the internet
No. Player   Pos Notes Age Org   Level   Pts.   Pre.
1   Phil Hughes   RHP   Gallardo would be No. 1 if he still was eligible; 44 K:14 BB in 43.0 AAA/MLB IP   21   NYY   MLB   97.3   1 ↔
2   Jay Bruce   CF   Didn't take long to imrpove on A+ stats in AA; now he's getting better in AAA   20   CIN   AAA   95.1   3 ↑
3   Justin Upton   CF   One of 1st teens to reach bigs since his brother; .319/.410/.551 in minors ('07)   19   ARI   MLB   95.0   4 ↑
4   Clay Buchholz   RHP   His 35.7% K rate and 0.95 WHIP between AA/AAA point to a career as a No. 1   22   BOS   AAA   93.9   5 ↑
5   Colby Rasmus   CF   Still masing despite losing 10 lbs. (sinus infection) and getting hit in head this yr.   21   STL   AA   93.5   7 ↑
6   Evan Longoria   3B   Patient hitter who is trying to transform into a MLB power threat; .307/.403/.520   21   TB   AAA   92.6   8 ↑
7   Brandon Wood   3B   Streaky power hitter will need time to adjust to bigs but will be worth the wait   22   LAA   MLB   92.5   6 ↓
8   Joba Chamberlain   RHP   I think bullpen trial is a huge mistake (injury risk); 39.0% K rate and 1.01 WHIP   21   NYY   AAA   92.2   12 ↑
9   Adam Jones   CF   Slugging 100 pts. higher than in '06, he's suddenly a potential 30+ MLB HR threat 22   SEA   MLB   91.4   9 ↔
10   Cameron Maybin   CF   Seperated shoulder caused him to miss most of July; now .306/.396/.486 in FSL 20   DET   A+   89.3   13 ↑
11   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   I'm not ready to declare him unstoppable; 134 K vs. 50 BB (2.68 K/BB) in 97.3 IP   19   LAD   A   88.3   10 ↓
12   Andy LaRoche   3B   Aug. 3rd back injury has brought .411/.486/.922, 12-HR July to an abrupt hault   23   LAD   MLB   88.1   11 ↓
13   Fernando Martinez   CF   Sidelined by hand injury during All-Star break for the second season in a row   18   NYM   AA   87.3   14 ↑
14   Homer Bailey   RHP   Was put on DL July 19th with strained groin; had a similar injury earlier this year   21   CIN   MLB   86.8   17 ↑
15   Jacob McGee   LHP   Mastering command and still missing bats; 30.9% K, 3.72 K/BB, and 1.07 WHIP   21   TB   A+   86.6   22 ↑
16   Daric Barton   1B   It's hard to say he even has 15+ MLB HR potential; he's .305/.398/.453 w/ 33 2B 21   OAK   AAA   86.2   16 ↔
17   Andrew McCutchen CF   Hit 4 HR in first 77 games this year; has 5 HR in last 32; .252/.323/.377 overall   20   PIT   AA   86.0   19 ↑
18   Reid Brignac   SS   Finally finding power stroke in what was becoming a solid-average season   21   TB   AA   85.9   15 ↓
19   Jeff Clement   C   Jones' AAA teammate for most of '07; also slugging 100 points higher than '06   23   SEA   AAA   85.9   18 ↓
20   Johnny Cueto   RHP   Raise your hand if you chuckled when we had him ranked in our Jan. 3 Top 100 21   CIN   AAA   85.5   100 ↑
21   Wladimir Balentien   RF   Despite sizable slump since Futures Game, he's still .302/.375/.547 w/ 24 HR   23   SEA   AAA   84.8   25 ↑
22   Neil Walker   3B   Making transition to 3B just fine; .289/.360/.468 w/ 29 2B & 12 HR in 395 AA ab   21   PIT   AA   84.6   28 ↑
23   Travis Snider   RF   When looking at his .303/.370/.478 line, keep in mind he's in pitcher-friendly MWL 19   TOR   A   84.5   24 ↑
24   Wade Davis   RHP   Through AA 55.0 IP, he has a 23.0% K rate, 1.16 WHIP, and just 1 HR allowed   21   TB   AA   84.5   23 ↓
25   Carlos Triunfel   SS   His .318 BA is misleading, as he's barely hitting for power; still very impressive   17   SEA   A+   84.4   56 ↑
26   Joey Votto   1B   Could still be a stud in Great American Ballpark; not so much if he gets traded   23   CIN   AAA   84.4   29 ↑
27   Carlos Gonzalez   RF   Up to .365/.413/.600 in 85 at-bats since the All-Star break; only 83 K and 15 HR   21   ARI   AA   84.4   51 ↑
28   Lars Anderson   1B   Basically doing what Rowell was supposed to; .283/.378/.441 w/ 8 HR in SAL   19   BOS   A   84.4   38 ↑
29   Asdrubal Cabrera   SS   Extremely disciplined hitter with some pop and good enough glove to stick at SS   21   CLE   A   84.4   32 ↑
30   Chris Marrero   LF   His power numbers are way down since jump to A+; .287/.344/.506 combined   19   WAS   A+   84.3   31 ↑
31   Jacoby Ellsbury   CF   Returned last Sun. from a groin injury that he sustained on Saturday, July 21st   23   BOS   MLB   84.3   20 ↓
32   Ian Kennedy   RHP   Draftitus victim has 29.8 K%, 0.99 WHIP, and 3.23 K/BB between A+, AA, AAA   22   NYY   AAA   84.2   53 ↑
33   Will Inman   RHP   Down to 4th in minors in Ks; has 29.9% K, 1.17 WHIP, and 3.27 K/BB (A+/AA)   20   SD   AA   84.1   21 ↓
34   Gio Gonzalez   LHP   I was putting too much stock into his '06; 29.3% K, 1.13 WHIP, 3.31 K/BB in '07   21   CHW   AA   84.0   55 ↑
35   Bryan Anderson   C   Slowing down big time, but remains studly given age/lvl; .304/.358/.405 w/ 5 HR   20   STL   AA   83.8   57 ↑
36   Jose Tabata   RF   Yes, he's in FSL but his 0.080 ISO (0.122 last year) says his wrist is messed up 19   NYY   A+   83.8   40 ↑
37   Angel Villalona   3B   He'd be a Jr. in high school in the states, and he's .262/.341/.434 in Rookie-ball   16   SF   R   83.7   NR
38   Elvis Andrus   SS   Dismal power output has him behind Triunfel...sorry it took me so long to get it   18   TEX   A+   83.7   41 ↑
39   Beau Mills   1B   Look for monster '08 power totals; until then his .278/.338/.451 SAL line is solid   20   CLE   A   83.6   NR
40   Brett Anderson   LHP   Stuff may not be better than Inman's; both know how to pitch and will succeed   19   ARI   A+   83.6   47 ↑
41   Adam Miller   RHP   When he finally comes back, it may be as RP; injurys + walks = unstable future   22   CLE   AAA   83.5   25 ↓
42   Eric Hurley   RHP   With 21.2% K rate, 1.15 WHIP, and 2.69 K/BB, he could be a No. 3-4 or a RP   21   TEX   AAA   83.4   58 ↑
43   Carlos Gomez   LF   Broken hamate bone could turn Mr. Singles into Dr. Singles when he returns   21   NYM   MLB   83.4   30 ↓
44   Matt Antonelli   2B   Turning me into a believer by backing up his CAL success; .366/.465/.622 in AA 22   SD   AA   83.0   NR
45   Justin Masterson   RHP   Becoming the real deal; in AA (39.0 IP), 31.3% K, 0.71 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 1 HR   22   BOS   AA   82.9   NR
46   Michael Bowden   RHP   21.5% K, 1.14 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB are all solid, but CAL success was a mirage   20   BOS   AA   82.7   32 ↓
47   Bill Rowell   3B   All you can really hope is that he still isn't fully-recovered from his oblique injury   18   BAL   A   82.6   42 ↓
48   Deolis Guerra   RHP   1.15 WHIP & 2.94 K/BB = solid; 18.2% K = forgivable; health = legitimate concern 18   NYM   A+   82.6   35 ↓
49   Rick Vanden Hurk   RHP   Just 0.2 IP away from graduating; 27.7% K, 1.17 WHIP, 2.90 K/BB in 53.2 AA IP   22   FLA   MLB   82.5   59 ↑
50   Chase Headley   3B   Let's see what he can do in AAA before getting excited about 1.046 AA OPS   23   SD   MLB   82.4   62 ↑
51   Tommy Hanson   RHP   Former DNF has 29.5% K, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.07 K/BB between A/A+ (101.3 IP)   20   ATL   A+   82.2   54 ↑
52   Kurt Suzuki   C   Ranks here because he's in the bigs and a decent bet to be an average regular   23   OAK   MLB   81.5   94 ↑
53   Hank Conger   C   Perhaps highest-upside catcher in MiLB; .296/.344/.479 w/ 9 HR in 240 MWL ab   19   LAA   A   81.3   89 ↑
54   Ian Stewart   3B   Still potential to be an average regular; .302/.379/.479 w/ 15 HR in 401 PCL ab   22   COL   AAA   81.2   51 ↑
55   Matt LaPorta   LF   Mainly going by his '07 NCAA season here, but he has 2 HR in 6 pro games   22   MIL   SS   81.2   NR
56   Matt Tuiasosopo   3B   "Lost prospect" who is finding a groove in AA; .277/.389/.423 w/ 26 2B, 6 HR   21   SEA   AA   81.2   NR
57   Kevin Slowey   RHP   Has 21.8% K, 0.88 WHIP, 7.45 K/BB (in AAA); I still think he could be a No. 3-4   23   MIN   MLB   81.2   24 ↓
58   Cody Johnson   LF   1st round pick ('06) is showing huge power potential; .262/.327/.545 in APPY   18   ATL   R   81.1   NR
59   J.R. Towles   C   Chalk up another victory for the PP forums, Towles is starting to look like a stud   23   HOU   AA   81.0   NR
60   Trevor Plouffe   SS   Developing the kind of bat MIN hoped for when it selected him 20th overall in '04   21   MIN   AA   81.0   48 ↑
61   Hector Gomez   SS   Hitting like Miguel Tejada at age/lvl (minus discipline); bat could play at 3B, too   19   COL   A   80.8   NR
62   Kyle Blanks   1B   Cal League awakening meshes well with MWL difficulties; 35+ MLB HR potenial   20   SD   A+   80.5   NR
63   Chris Parmelee   RF   Another guy who's silently slugging in MWL; .237/.307/.422 w/ 17 2B and 13 HR 19   MIN   A   80.2   NR
64   Scott Elbert   LHP   Out for year after shoulder operation; 28.2% K, 1.25 WHIP, 2.04 K/BB in '06   21   LAD   AA   80.2   16 ↓
65   Johnny Whittleman   3B   2nd rounder ('05) mashed in MWL his second time around, sent to A+ last week 20   TEX   A+   80.2   57 ↑
66   Michael Burgess   RF   Largely considered a potential 1st rounder in Feb.; .301/.405/.527 in 93 GCL ab   18   WAS   R   80.2   NR
67   Scott Moore   3B   8th overall pick in '02; .265/.374/.516 (AAA); last played 7/24 (unknown injury)   23   CHC   MLB   80.1   NR
68   Max Sapp   C   Too talented to not take a big step up next season; .250/.334/.348 in 296 SAL ab 19   HOU   A   80.0   NR
69   Jaime Garcia   LHP   Groundball pitcher has 22.0% K, 1.32 WHIP, 2.15 K/BB; out for year (elbow)?   21   STL   AA   80.0   64 ↓
70   Jamie Romak   LF   Part of Adam LaRoche trade; .245/.385/.496 w/ 20 2B, 17 HR in 282 A/A+ ab   21   PIT   A+   80.0   NR
71   Ryan Sweeney   LF   Struggling to repeat '06 success; .275/.348/.417 ('07) vs. .296/.350/.452 ('06)   22   CHW   MLB   79.9   69 ↓
72   Geovany Soto   C   Far from a sexy prospect, but a .345/.417/.631 AAA line is too good to overlook   24   CHC   MLB   79.9   NR
73   Joe Koshansky   1B   Two-way college player hasn't hit for as much power in AAA as he did in AA   25   COL   AAA   79.9   92 ↑
74   Chris Lubanski   LF   2003's 5th overall pick is creeping closer to bigs; .278/.348/.448 in AA/AAA   22   KC   AAA   79.9   NR
75   Francisco Cervelli   C   Gaining steam after poor June/July; .275/.383/.386 w/ 23 2B, 2 HR in 280 FSL ab 21   NYY   A+   79.9   NR
Honorables: Oscar Tejeda (79.85), Phil Humber (79.85), Chris Carter (79.80, ARI), Adrian Cardenas (79.78), and Francisco Pena (79.78).
Graduated (final ranking): Yovani Gallardo (2).                    
Dropped Out of Top 25 (previous ranking): Jacoby Ellsbury (20) and Will Inman (21).                    
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                    
** Only signed professional players with less than 130 pro at-bats or less than 50 pro innings are considered for our rankings        
*** Ages are as of August 12th, 2007                    
**** Level is the highest level the player has reached                    
***** Pts. Is the player's score from my prospect ranking program                    
****** Pre. is the player's rankings from last week's Top 25, our Midseason Top 50, or our 1/3/07 Top 100.                    
                                 
<<< Click here to see our July 23rd Top 25 Rankings                    
<<< Click here to see our June 25th Top 50 Rankings                    
<<< Click here to discuss these rankings                
<<< How our rankings work                      

 

Disclaimer
Our in-season rankings are a tool that we’ve chosen to implement for the first time this season. We realize that this weekly exercise cannot be as thorough as creating a pre-season Top 100 prospect list – which involves months of thought and research. So why even bother publishing these rankings? For fun.

Just like any coaches poll or other in-season rankings, our rankings won’t be as concrete as the ones that can be made when you’re looking at something somewhat after the fact. (We’re still adjusting to the volatile nature of in-season rankings as well.) Lists will stray far from then maybe come back to looking like our previous prospect lists. A few odd names will work their way into the rankings--emphasis is on recent performance.

Think of these rankings like a giant coliseum battle. Everyone will be going after everyone; the air will be cluttered with dust. Then our preseason prospect list will be our take once the dust settles. Until then, just remember that's we're trying to judge a battle while it's still in progress.

We hope to provide an entertaining glimpse of our thought process, and a snapshot of how the prospect scene changes throughout the season.

A few other important notes: 1) More than ever, we’re going to begin relying on numbers for our rankings. Perhaps we could make better lists by regularly talking to people in the industry, but that’s not our style. 2) We’ll be balancing 2006 and 2007 numbers in order to draw upon the best sample that we see fit – the same methods will be applied to each prospect.


I am prepared to answer questions in more detail upon email request,

Adam Foster
Project Prospect Founder
adamf@projectprospect.com