It’s a 4,400-mile voyage from Fairbanks, Ala. to Central Florida. That’s a distance of nearly 75,000 home runs over Fenway’s Green Monster down the 310-foot foul line, for those of you that are scoring at home.
This breadth of territory represents the furthest most distances one would need to travel to witness a contest at each of the 40-plus sites that play home to collegiate summer baseball leagues.
Scoring from home is not merely allowed – it’s encouraged.
Since venturing to the lesser-known frontiers of the far northwest is too much for the grand majority of amateur baseball fans, I bring you an idiot’s guide to summer league baseball.
In a nutshell:
Sure, there are over 40 collegiate summer leagues, but when looking to build a cumulative prospect list across the nation, the facts of life can actually be squeezed out of a much smaller sample size. The Hawaii and Northwoods Leagues are examples of two of the best summer leagues not named the Cape Cod Baseball League. Everyone wants to go to the infamous Cape. Unless, of course, you’re a U.S. citizen; then being a part of the USA Baseball National Team is a pretty safe bet, too.
So in a nutshell, if you want to find the most elite of elite talents, head to the Cape or watch Team USA. There are always exceptions to any rule, but it really doesn’t get much easier than that.
The movers:
It’s worth noting that the 20-man pitching staff of Team USA combined to post a 1.08 WHIP for the summer, yielding a 1.93 ERA and .202 BAA. It’s also worth nothing that the rotation of aces that headed the staff are the same aces that head the College Prospect Rankings. Brian Matusz (LHP, San Diego) and Tyson Ross (RHP, Cal) solidified their slots as the top amateur lefty and righty throwers in all the land. Matusz allowed a mere 18 runners to reach base via a hit or walk in just over 20 frame of work, while Ross posted a 0.88 WHIP, striking out 39 in 43.2 innings during the process. Lance Lynn (RHP, Ole Miss) and Jacob Thompson (RHP, Virginia) did nothing to hurt their stock either, as the WHIP numbers of the two skyscraping righties were both at or bellow the 1.00 line.
Believe it or not, there were some prospects who made an impact without even taking the hill for Team USA. Yonder Alonso (1B, Miami) and his 36:25 BB to K rate (.468 OBP in 151 at-bats) in the Cape proved that his 64:31 collegiate clip last season was, in fact, not a typo. Logan Forsythe (OF, Arkansas) and Jordan Danks (OF, Texas) gave USA Baseball a potent on-base attack (.463 and 431 OBP, respectively) and are forcing their way onto the Honorable Mention section – if not higher – on any Top 10 collegiate prospect list.
Posting an extraordinary 0.70 WHIP, Aaron Crow (RHP, Missouri) was voted the Robert A. McNeese Award winner (Cape's best prospect) by the collective scouting brass. A 6-foot-2, 200-pounder, Crow held opponents to a meager .157 BAA with a 9:36 BB to K rate and will continue his pursuit towards the top of the 2008 MLB Draft board.
The shakers:
This category was invented for Kyle Russell (OF, Texas), who managed to shake the prospect draft board without a single Team USA or Cape Cod League at-bat of any kind. The man who went .336/.456/.807 and led the nation with 28 HR in 2007 is going back to school. Deal with it.
So good it doesn’t matter:
While the elite summer leagues pit top prospects versus top prospects, some talents don’t need the additional exposure. Pedro Alvarez (3B, Vanderbilt) and Justin Smoak (1B, South Carolina) have been manning down the fort with regards to slots no. 1 and 1A on the College Prospect Rankings since it’s debut; that will not change anytime soon. Alvarez went .315/.399/.551 in 127 at-bats on a Team USA club that struggled to produce offensively (.264/.354/.385).
Smoak, in comparison, posted a rather pedestrian .223/.291/.380 clip during his 121 at-bat timeframe. Is this enough to outweigh Smoak’s 260 at-bat collegiate season where he posted a .315/.434/.631 vital line, blasting 22 HR to go with a very advanced 54:40 BB to K rate? Never. Worst-case scenario is that his Team USA performance pushed Smoak to no. 2 on the board as opposed to 1A, but I’m not buying it.
Brett Wallace (1B, Arizona State) gets some love in this category, as well. Wallace hit for average (.312) and got on-base enough (.345), but showed no power whatsoever (.404 SLG) for Team USA. Don’t go selling the farm on a guy for a 109 at-bat sample when he mashed to the tune of a .687 SLG during the regular collegiate season.
Why couldn’t you show me more?
For every Brett Wallace, there are some who are hurt by their summer showings. Brandon Crawford (SS, UCLA) is a five-tool talent who was ranked as high as no. 6 in our College Prospect Rankings. His 2007 collegiate vitals were strong (.335/.404/.504), but not elite; especially during a free swinging 25:58 BB to K campaign. Going .189/.262/.326 in the Cape is not what Crawford had in mind, and it’s enough to push a prospect just outside the Top 5 towards borderline Top 10 territory.
Jemile Weeks (2B, Miami) hurt his stock by doing just that: being hurt. Weeks did just about everything right for the Hurricanes in 2007 – .293/.393/.489, balanced 27:27 BB to K, the speed to produce 6 3B and a 87.5% stolen base success rate on the base paths – and cannot fall too far beyond the Honorable Mention section at this time because of that.
Two other Honorables who could have solidified Top 10 slots with solid summer campaigns left a bit more to be desired. Roger Kieschnick (OF, Texas Tech) showed slugging potential with the Red Raiders (.302/.373/.621 SLG), but left questions to be asked about the non-power aspects of his game (24:44 BB to K). Kieschnick did tie for the Team USA lead with 7 HR and was behind only Alvarez in slugging (.500), but didn’t prove any of his critics wrong, posting a .290 OBP during the same timeframe. James Darnell (3B, South Carolina) had an excellent collegiate season – .331/.450/.615 with a stellar 51:35 BB to K ratio – but struggled in his opportunity to succeed outside Smoak’s gargantuan shadow. Darnell was better than average (.256/.326/.492) in the Cape, but didn’t do enough to solidify the Top 10 slot that had his name on it.
Conclusions:
This year’s installment of amateur baseball’s summer campaign surely served its purpose; many questions were answered, and many new queries were left to be asked.
On the mound, the likes of Ross, Lynn, Thompson and Co. showed that the onetime massive gap between their tier and future ace Brian Matusz is far closer than meets the eye with overpowering showings of their own. On the other side of the coin, the Crawfords and Darnells of the world are left to regain their footing due to lackluster performances.
While the collegiate summer leagues can be used to dissect and analyze the top of the draft boards to pieces, the real excitement came with regards to those who are looking to fill out the rest of the Top 25.
A gaping hole between the premier pitching talents and the rest of the field was patched by Aaron Crow and a new wave of contenders. An undersized 5-foot-10, 185-pound righty, Scott Gorgen (RHP, UC Irvine) posted a 0.98 WHIP and 15.9 K/9 after being added to the Team USA roster. Serving as the sequel to Lance Lynn, 6-foot-8, 250-pound Luke Burnett (RHP, Louisiana Tech) matched Gorgen with an identical 15.9 K/9 number, while drastically cutting his walk rate (LSU: 6.42 BB/9, Cape: 2.72 BB/9) over the summer.
Teamed with the likes of Team USA’s Logan Forsythe and Jordan Danks, Cape Cod League all-stars like Dennis Raben (OF, Miami) and Gordon Beckham (SS, Georgia) were among the many position prospects who showed those ranked above them that their current slots are not safe with .298/.426/.510 and .284/.370/.529 showings, respectively.
Traveling over 4,400 miles to witness all of this madness could prove fatal, and now you have it all here in approximately 1,400 words. Collegiate summer league baseball: so easy an idiot could do it.
Adam Loberstein has far more that 1,400 words to say about summer league baseball. Ask for more by emailing him at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.