Top 25 Rankings

September 17, 2007
Check back every Monday for the only regularly updated in-season prospect rankings on the internet.
No.   Player   Pos   Notes   Age   Org   Level   Pre.
1   Jay Bruce   CF   Elite power hitter w/ 35+ HR potential - hit 26 HR in 578 PA this year; topped a 20% line drive rate in both A+ and AAA; ranked 2nd in the minors in XBH with 80; .319/.375/.587 overall this year   20   CIN   AAA   1 ↔
2   Justin Upton   CF   Tremendous athlete w/ superstar potential; fantasy stud by 2009? Mashed his way through A+ and AA (.319/.410/.551 with 18 HR in 103 games); struggles in bigs shouldn't be a concern   20   ARI   MLB   2 ↑
3   Colby Rasmus   CF   Our choice as the best bet in the minors to be a MLB 30/30 man; .275/.381/.551 line would look even more impressive if he hadn't lost 10 pounds during the season due to a sinus infection   21   STL   AA   6 ↑
4   Clay Buchholz   RHP   Looking like the most polished, elite SP prospect since Tim Lincecum; attacks the strike zone well with mix of overpowering stuff; threw a MLB no-hitter on September 1st against Baltimore   23   BOS   MLB   4 ↔
5   David Price   LHP   2007's No. 1 pick is scheduled to pitch in the Instructional League; struck out 38.2% of the NCAA hitters he faced in '07; maintained a 4.72 K/BB rate over his final two NCAA seasons   22   TB   NCAA   7 ↑
6   Evan Longoria   3B   This year's Southern League MVP could break camp with the D-Rays in '08; LD% was 23 in AA but only 15 in AAA (128 PA); will try to build upon his '07 line (.299/.402/.520) in AFL next month   21   TB   AAA   8 ↑
7   Joba Chamberlain   RHP   Has struck out 38.1% of the batters he's faced in '07; owns a 4.94 K/BB between MLB/AA/A+; expected to return to the rotatation and compete for a spot with the Yankees next season   22   NYY   MLB   5 ↓
8   Adam Jones   CF   Has the potential to hit 30+ HR a season and be a solid middle-of-the-order hitter; ranked 4th among PCL hitters under 25 in LD% (24); will compete for the AL Rookie of the Year award in '08   22   SEA   MLB   10 ↑
9   Cameron Maybin   CF   Burner with 30/30 potential; will begin 2008 in minors; while his 10% LD this season in A+ is frightening, he showed signs of improvement after missing a month with a seperated shoulder   20   DET   MLB   9 ↔
10   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Could be the No. 1 prospect in baseball entering '09...if he doesn't graduate first; K'd 27.1% of the batters he faced in AA; owns a 32.5% K since being drafted 7th overall in 2006 - 3.01 K/BB   19   LAD   AA   11 ↑
11   Jacob McGee   LHP   Continues to show signs that he has front-of-the-rotation potential; 30.8% K this year as an encore for 30.5% K last year; '07 K/BB clip (3.37) was a big improvement from '06 clip (2.63)   21   TB   AA   15 ↑
12   Brandon Wood   3B   Though his season seemed dissapointing on the surface, he actually hit far more line drives in the minors this year (19%) than last year (14%); his tools make him a mid-20s breakout candidate   22   LAA   MLB   12 ↔
13   Reid Brignac   SS   Despite hitting more line drives this year in AA (19%) than he did last year in A+ (12%), his BABIP dropped from .367 to .288; maybe he won't hit for AVE in the bigs, but he will hit for power   21   TB   AA   14 ↑
14   Andrew McCutchen   CF   5-foot-11 speedster will need to rely on his wheels until he can start making loud contact more consistently; hit .265/.329/.388 with 0.51 BB/K this year between AA and AAA; risky/projectable   20   PIT   AAA   16 ↑
15   Andy LaRoche   3B   Beginning to develop a reputation for being injury-prone (back, shoulders); still has all-star potential; good strike-zone judgement (64 BB vs. 74 K in AAA) should allow him to succeed in bigs   24   LAD   MLB   13 ↓
16   Ian Kennedy   RHP   Has K'd 27.9% of the batters he's faced this year (MLB/AAA/ AA/A+) while maintaining a 3.02 K/BB rate; his first three MLB starts leave room for improvement (15 K vs. 9 BB in 19.0 IP)   22   NYY   MLB   NR ↑
17   Johnny Cueto   RHP   Went from a '06 Low-A K% of 28.1 (292 TBF) to a 2007 AA K% of 30.6% (252 TBF); battled some inconsistency, but command (4.94 K/BB in '07) could allow him to become a MLB No. 2 starter   21   CIN   AAA   21 ↑
18   Rick Porcello   RHP   The 27th overall pick in 2007 may have gone as high as No. 2 without "Josh Beckett" bonus demands; best prep pitcher in his draft and a better amateur prospect than Kershaw in our eyes   18   DET   HS   17 ↓
19   Homer Bailey   RHP   Hard-throwing righty was slowed by injuries this year and had trouble developing the kind of secondary arsenal needed to retire big leaguers; current MiLB track record mirrors C.C. Sabathia's   21   CIN   MLB   18 ↓
20   Travis Snider   RF   Has nearly as high of an offensive ceiling as Bruce; a bit of luck (.407 BABIP vs. 14% LD) allowed him to go .313/.377/.525 in the MWL - quite a full-season debut; surprisingly, he's AFL-bound   19   TOR   A   19 ↓
21   Jeff Clement   C   How much of his up-and-down performance can be attributed to RHP/LHP splits? .778 OPS vs. RHP in AAA, 1.093 vs. LHP; earned a September callup, but he isn't playing much (4 AB)   24   SEA   AAA   20 ↓
22   Asbrubal Cabrera   SS   He could become a solid major league 2B, though he has limited power and speed ceilings; batted .310/.380/.448 in 406 AAA/AA at-bats this season - .288/.348/.449 in the bigs (118 AB)   21   CLE   MLB   24 ↑
23   Will Inman   RHP   Finished the year with the 2nd-most K's in the MILB (180); 3.07 K/BB in '07 is soid given age/level; GB-tendencies are interesting: 1.45 GO/AO in 39.2 SOU IP, 0.44 GO/AO in 41.0 TEX IP   20   SD   AA   22 ↓
24   Matt Wieters   C   Selected 5th overall in '07; solid bet to stick behind the plate; Wieters started off pretty slow this year, but there's no question that he was the best NCAA bat available in his draft class   21   BAL   NCAA   25 ↑
25   Carlos Gonzalez   RF   His blazing second half put him right back on the map as a top OF prospect; hit .288/.336/.478 in 500 AAA/AA at-bats; 17% LD in 69 '06 AA PA, 20% LD in 501 '07 AA PA, 17% LD in 49 AAA PA   21   ARI   AAA   23 ↓
Honorables: Mike Moustakas, Fernando Martinez, Josh Vitters, Gio Gonzalez, Beau Mills, Chris Marrero, and Wladimir Balentien.    
Graduated (final ranking): Phil Hughes (2).                
Dropped out of Top 25 (previous ranking): None.                
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                
** Only signed professional players with less than 130 pro at-bats or less than 50 pro innings are considered for our rankings    
*** Ages are as of September 23rd, 2007                
**** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
***** Pts. Is the player's score from my prospect ranking program                
****** Pre. is the player's rankings from September 3rd's Top 25.                
                             
<<< Our September 3rd Top 25 Rankings                
<<< Discuss these rankings                        
<<< How these rankings work                        
Photos: Morgan Foster (Bruce, Upton, Rasmus, Longoria, Chamberlain, Maybin, Kershaw). Dean Lima (Buchholz, McCutchen, Cabrera).
Jim Hlavac (Wood, LaRoche). Joel Dinda (Brignac). T. Evearett (Cueto). Carl Kline (Bailey). Nathan Rode (Wieters). C. English (Gonzalez).






























 

Disclaimer
Our in-season rankings are a tool that we’ve chosen to implement for the first time this season. We realize that this weekly exercise cannot be as thorough as creating a pre-season Top 100 prospect list – which involves months of thought and research. So why even bother publishing these rankings? For fun.

Just like any coaches poll or other in-season rankings, our rankings won’t be as concrete as the ones that can be made when you’re looking at something somewhat after the fact. (We’re still adjusting to the volatile nature of in-season rankings as well.) Lists will stray far from then maybe come back to looking like our previous prospect lists. A few odd names will work their way into the rankings--emphasis is on recent performance.

Think of these rankings like a giant coliseum battle. Everyone will be going after everyone; the air will be cluttered with dust. Then our preseason prospect list will be our take once the dust settles. Until then, just remember that's we're trying to judge a battle while it's still in progress.

We hope to provide an entertaining glimpse of our thought process, and a snapshot of how the prospect scene changes throughout the season.

A few other important notes: 1) More than ever, we’re going to begin relying on numbers for our rankings. Perhaps we could make better lists by regularly talking to people in the industry, but that’s not our style. 2) We’ll be balancing 2006 and 2007 numbers in order to draw upon the best sample that we see fit – the same methods will be applied to each prospect.


I am prepared to answer questions in more detail upon email request,

Adam Foster
Project Prospect Founder
adamf@projectprospect.com