We continue our reverse-alphabetical rundown of the top prospects in baseball by organization with the Toronto Blue Jays. J.P. Ricciardi's Blue Jays added depth at the top of their system in the 2007 Draft, selecting a high school player with their first pick for the second time ever and the second year in a row. The Blue Jays are an organization that still has a ton to prove as far as organizational depth – especially as far as high-upside talents go – but they have some guys who could turn into elite big leaguers.
| Our Top 5 Toronto Blue Jays Prospects at the end of the 2007 Season | ||||||||||
| No. | Player | Pos | Notes | Age | Level | |||||
| 1 | Travis Snider | RF | Masher with tons of MLB power potential (45.0% XBH in MWL); AFL bound | 19 | A | |||||
| 2 | Kevin Ahrens | 3B | Put up .109 IsoD and improved every month in GCL; '07's 16th overall pick | 18 | R | |||||
| 3 | J.P. Arencibia | C | Could be a solid-hitting catcher; still has lots to prove; '07's 21st overall pick | 21 | SS | |||||
| 4 | Brett Cecil | LHP | Struck out 28.4% of the short-season hitters he faced; '07's 38th overall pick | 21 | SS | |||||
| 5 | Justin Jackson | SS | Thin shortstop could who could add power someday; '07's 45th overall pick | 18 | R | |||||
| * Ages are as of 9/20/07 | ||||||||||
| ** Level is the highest level the player has reached | ||||||||||
| *** Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production | ||||||||||
| <<< Discuss these rankings | ||||||||||
1. Travis Snider, RF (2/2/88)
The ever-popular 2005 high school outfield class may go on to dwarf every class of its kind for the next decade. But Snider, the 14th overall pick in 2006, had a full-season debut that was on par with the ones put up by Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, and Cameron Maybin. A power hitter with the athleticism to stick in right field, Snider batted .313/.377/.525 with 16 home runs in the Midwest League – a league that’s notorious for favoring pitchers. Snider’s weaknesses are a propensity for strikeouts and a bit of an injury history – most recently back problems last spring and again in early-May. But his ceiling rivals any hitter’s in the lower minor leagues. The lefty is currently slotted to compete in the Arizona Fall League.
2. Kevin Ahrens, 3B (4/26/89)
Ahrens shot up the draft charts as a high school senior, ultimately landing with the Blue Jays as the 16th pick of the 2007 draft. His .230/.339/.321 GCL line is pretty uninspiring, but it’s notable that he improved every month and hit .262/.368/.385 in 77 August plate appearances. Perhaps just a coincidence, he did his best hitting when he played third base, struggling in games where he was the designated hitter or shortstop. Made into a switch-hitter late in his high school career, Ahrens has an advanced approach at the plate and projects to continue to hit for more power.
3. J.P Arencibia, C (1/5/86)
Despite being limited by a back injury for the bulk of the year, Arencibia landed with Toronto as the 21st overall pick. Some evaluators didn’t even view him as a first-round talent, and it’s uncertain whether or not he will be able to stay behind the plate as he advances through the minors – he played some first base in college. But this is the same hitter who broke Todd Helton’s freshman home run record at Tennessee. Arencibia batted an uninspiring .254/.309/.377 in 63 short-season games after signing for $1.32 million. If he comes into the 2008 season stronger and healthier, he could have a breakout year.
4. Brett Cecil, LHP (7/2/86)
Cecil dominated short-season hitters, striking out 56 and walking just 11 in 49.2 innings – 28.4% K rate. But he wasn’t pushed up against tougher competition for a reason. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Maryland product primarily pitched in relief as an amateur, prior to being drafted 38th overall in 2007. Still, Cecil has three pitches and may start professionally. But we’re very cautious when it comes to college closers being molded into professional starting pitching rolls. It’s unlikely that he’ll be an above-average big league starter. And his bullpen ceiling may only be as a setup man. At this point, Cecil isn’t exactly the kind of guy who should be chased in typical dynasty leagues.
5. Justin Jackson, SS (12/11/88)
While he was on the professional radar for a while prior to being drafted 45th overall in 2007, Jackson still has a ton to prove before he becomes a solid bet to someday make it to the big leagues. Jackson hardly stood out as a hitter in the GCL, batting .187/.274/.241 with 44 strikeouts and 20 walks in 42 games. There are definitely some first round supplemental picks who were taken behind Jackson but are already looking like much better prospects – like Michael Burgess. While he could fill out and break out, Jackson is a pretty weak No. 5 prospect.
Honorable Mentions:
Sergio Santos, 24, showed signs of extra-base-hit power in Double-A – 34 doubles and 20 home runs – but batted just .250/.325/.477 in 432 at-bats. His power success landed him an August promotion to Triple-A, where he was essentially harmless at the plate. Interestingly, Santos spent all of 2006 in Triple-A and hit .214/.254/.299. He’ll be playing in the Arizona Fall League this offseason. Curtis Thigpen, 24, has an average catcher’s bat – hit .285/.348/.391 in Triple-A this season – but doesn’t look like a good bet to stick behind the plate. He reached the big leagues this season and split time between first base and catcher. Toronto's 2007 second rounder, John Tolisano, was better than expected in his pro debut but still has a lot to prove. And lastly, in case you’re still holding out for Ricky Romero, 22, to develop into an above-average big leaguer, know that he only struck out 19.6% of the Double-A batters he faced this season and put together a 1.69 WHIP and 1.57 K/BB rate. He missed most of May and June due to a shoulder injury, and totaled just 93.0 innings on the season. He'll also be participating in the Arizona Fall League.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.