Tampa Bay Devil Rays Top 5

The Devil Rays farm system has become the envy of baseball. They had four players who ranked in the Top 15 of our Top 25 prospect list last week. They have a top Rookie of the Year candidate in the big leagues right now, in Delmon Young. And they are currently in line to be awarded the No. 1 overall Draft pick for the second year in a row. Tampa Bay really only has one path that it can take in order to compete with the big spenders in its division. And it’s taking it.

1. David Price, LHP (8/26/85)

An argument can be made that Price is the best pitcher to come out of the college ranks since Mark Prior. A 6-foot-6, 225-pound lefty who has produced every bit as much as his scouting report said he should, Price’s amateur track record is virtually blemish-free. He was projected to be the No. 1 pick in 2007 more than a year before the draft and lived up to that projection by striking out approximately 38.2% of the batters he faced in 2007 – including 12 double digit strikeout performances. Though Price has yet to throw a regular season, professional pitch, he’s polished enough (4.72 K/BB between his sophomore and junior seasons) that he could reach the big leagues sometime in 2008.

2. Evan Longoria, 3B (10/7/85)

The No. 3 pick in the 2006 Draft, Longoria reached Triple-A in his first full pro season. He spent approximately 22.8% of the season in Triple-A and 77.2% in Double-A. And despite a noticeable drop in contact rate between the levels (.307 AA batting average, .269 AAA), he showed a signs of improvement at the higher level – like a better BB/K rate and higher XBH%. It’s unlikely that Longoria will wind up being an above-average power hitter at third base in the bigs leagues. But you’re still looking at a potential all-star here. Longoria could be a middle of the lineup caliber hitter as soon as mid-2008. He’s scheduled to play in the Arizona Fall League, which begins on October 9^th.

3. Jacob McGee, LHP (8/6/86)

One of the caution flags that we hold up for minor league pitchers is strikeout-to-walk rate. Anything over 3.00 is pretty solid. Anything under 2.75 is a bit concerning. McGee had a 2.63 in Low-A last season. He put together a 3.37 between High-A and Double-A this season. And he maintained strikeout rates over 30.0% (K/PA) at each level. In English: We believe McGee has turned the corner and blossomed into one of the top five pitching prospects in baseball. If had opted for the college route and progressed this well during his time in the NCAA, McGee would definitely be given Top 3 overall consideration in the 2008 Draft.

4. Reid Brignac, SS (1/16/86)

Batting average on balls in play is definitely a stat that should be used carefully. In Brignac’s case, we think it’s worth looking at. He had a BABIP of .367 last season in High-A then .395 in his late-season Double-A promotion. While maintaining a similar line drive rate, his BABIP was .288 this year in Double-A. With a discrepancy that size, we are very curious about how often Brignac hit the ball hard but right at defenders this season. Even if he was a bit lucky last season, he could have been a bit unlucky this season. So we think Brignac hitting .260 this year was more of an aberration than anything – though he probably isn’t a .300 hitter either. What Brignac does bring to the table is the kind of power bat that doesn’t show up too often in middle infielders. His power alone could make him an above-average big leaguer. He also will be playing in the AFL

5. Wade Davis, RHP (9/7/85)

Don’t be fooled by Davis’ ranking here. He’s a No. 1-caliber prospect, though he’s far from untouchable. After striking out 27.6% of the batters he faced from short-season to High-A, Davis’ K rate dipped to 23.8% in Double-A. He also amassed a 1.30 WHIP in Double-A after maintaining a rate of 1.16 between short-season and High-A. Davis would certainly crack a Top 50 prospect list if we made it today, but we’re not too comfortable labeling him as a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in a playoff-caliber rotation.

Honorable Mentions:

As should be expected with an organization that has as much top-tier talent as the Devil Rays, a Top 5 really only skims the surface of what this system has to offer. And we could give you an extended list of other Devil Rays who have the potential to be at least average big leaguers. But instead, we’re just going to over a few standouts.

Featured on Patrick Hennessey’s Undersized Righthanded Syndrome column last fall, Jeremy Hellickson (4/8/87) continues to come to his own as a prospect. Hellickson struck out 23.8% of the batters he faced in Low-A this season while putting up a 3.12 K/BB rate. Desmond Jennings is another exciting guy who the Devil Rays have brought along. Though his season ended in August due to a knee injury, Jennings showed flashes of the kind of speed and power that fantasy owners salivate over prior to the injury. The other two guys who we think belong on the same tier as Hellickson and Jennings are Jeff Niemann and Christopher Mason. The 4^th overall pick in 2004, Niemann has the stuff and command to be a No. 3-5 big league starter. Mason, who struck out 20.4% of the Double-A batters he faced this season, also is a solid bet to become a big league starter.

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.