Most ‘expert’ publications had Billy Butler ranked anywhere from 16th through 30th with many ranking him behind Luke Hochevar – except for ProjectProspect.com , of course, who had him ranked the 8th best prospect coming into the 2007 season along with this prophetic note: “Defensive criticism given too much weight, will mash in the big leagues.” Well Mr. Foster and Mr. Loberstein, you could not have been more correct!
We all know what Butler has done since he arrived in the majors and was given a full-time gig, but now we all want to know what he will do come 2008 and beyond for your Fantasy Baseball team. So, let’s have a look…
When you dive into Butler’s offensive numbers, you don’t see quite what you were expecting to. Here is a guy who is known for exceptional offensive skills, yet while his LD% is in line with his comparables at 21%, his GB% is significantly higher than all of those same comparables at 50%, which is actually an improvement in both categories from his minor league production. The initial reaction to this is that it is a clear sign of growth and maturity as a hitter, both being categories that will strengthen in the years to come.
Butler will finish 2007 with stats that would play out in a full season to be a Roto line of .290 / 15 / 97 / 71 / 0 based off of a 600 at-bat season. Taking into consideration that he is a rookie and only 21-years of age, that is a phenomenal stat line and should take a significant jump come 2008. The expected outlook given his current metrics – assuming a small increase across the board – is a Roto line in the ballpark of .305 / 19 / 109 / 80 / 0.
The greatest detractor to Butler’s value will be his lack of speed and ability to play defense. Zero production in speed will simply be a given. Butler does not have the ability to steal a Prince Fielder-esque seven bases a la 2006, so when you acquire Butler you must know you are only getting a 4-tool fantasy player. Obviously, in points-based leagues, this is a minimal detractor – if any at all. Defensive skills are another detractor altogether, however. As of September 28th, Butler has only logged twelve games at first base and six games in left field. Unless your league has significantly low positional eligibility standards, Butler will be relegated to be nothing more than a DH / Utility role in your lineup for at least the first month of the season. This is obviously not something to fret over, but is certainly something that must be taken into consideration upon his acquisition.
For Butler’s sophomore stint – assuming he eventually qualifies at first base – expect Butler to rank approximately 17th amongst first-base eligible players, slotting right in between Kevin Youkilis and Paul Konerko. For Roto-based leagues for 2008, expect him to be comparable to Todd Helton, Victor Martinez, and Garrett Atkins.
My final suggestion is that if you are in a yearly draft league, do not get caught up in the Alex Gordon-like hype that cause you to reach for that young Royals third-baseman who you knew was going to pop off 35+ homers and drive in 110 RBIs. Butler may have a lot of hype around him next season, which could force you to want to reach for him. Don’t do it! He will certainly become an elite player, but there are players who can be had with comparable production and will come at a far lesser price in the draft. If Butler falls to you in round 10 or later, by all means pull the trigger. Otherwise, wait another season or so for him to reach breakout potential and then pounce.
In keeper leagues though, my suggestion is totally different. Do what you can to obtain Butler as long as the cost isn’t astronomical. He will be a player who can carry your offense from a corner infield position for possibly the next 10+ years if you acquire him now.
Come 2008, Billy Butler will not yet be ready to become known as an elite fantasy producer; however, that day is near.
Brandon Taylor Charpied can be reached at BTCharpied@projectprospect.com.