Gallardo’s 2007 big league debut was somewhat sub par from the numbers he had put up prior, however, this speaks greater volumes about Gallardo’s dominance than it does a poor rookie campaign of any kind. For the first time in the 21-year-old fireballer’s career he failed to strike out more batters than innings pitched, finishing with a still impressive 101 strikeouts in merely 110.1 innings pitched. Couple that with 9 wins, a respectable ERA (3.67) and a 1.27 WHIP and you clearly have yourself a Roto stud come 2008.
While Gallardo is a supreme talent, he does not come without a warning label. His history while rising up through the minor leagues shows that as opposing hitters become more patient and talented, Gallardo is susceptible to giving up a fairly significant number of home runs. From High-A all the way to the major leagues, Gallardo’s GB% has plummeted from an impressive 59% to a pedestrian 39%, decreasing with each promotion. The result of this was eight homeruns given up in his 110.1 inning stint in the majors.
Granted, there are several top-tier pitchers in the major leagues who give up an extraordinary number of homeruns such as Johan Santana (33 HRs on a 40% GB), Aaron Harang (28 HRs on a 43% GB), Daisuke Matsuzaka (25 HRs on a 40% GB), and Curt Schilling (21 HRs on a 40% GB), so in those regards Gallardo is in good company. His propensity to offer up the long ball may raise his ERA to a point that it appears somewhat out of proportion to his WHIP, but in time this chink in his armor will come under control as it does with many young pitchers of his caliber.
In yearly draft leagues, Gallardo is a safe bet to draft in any format and can be expected to produce a Roto line in the vicinity of 15 wins, 3.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 190 strikeouts. This line would place Gallardo in the Roto-based production tier of Matt Cain, Ben Sheets, and Carlos Zambrano – and chances are could be had at a much cheaper price come draft day then any one of those three. In points-based leagues, Gallardo’s 2008 production would come in at a level similar to Tim Hudson, Brad Penny and Roy Oswalt, falling just outside the Top-25 in production by starting pitchers.
In keeper leagues Gallardo is a commodity that you should make it a point to obtain. Luckily for someone who attempts to trade for him, you can likely obtain this young stud for less than you would Phil Hughes, Tim Lincecum, and Joba Chamberlain due to the lack of hype that surrounded him this season. Use this overlooking of Gallardo by the media to your advantage and offer a healthy dish of trade bait to his current owner. Gallardo will turn 22-years-old come February and is young enough and talented enough to anchor your keeper league rotation beyond the next decade.
Brandon Taylor Charpied can be reached at BTCharpied@projectprospect.com.