Phillies fans have reason to be frustrated. Kyle Drabek, their 2006 first rounder, underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the 2007 season. They didn’t have a first-round pick in 2005. And 2004 first rounder Greg Golson hasn’t performed up to expectations. Fittingly, the organization has little elite, upper-level talent to speak of. Philadelphia’s current roster is full of successful first-round picks like Pat Burrell, Brett Myers, Chase Utley, and Cole Hamels. As those players drift closer toward free agency, it’s going to be difficult for this franchise to putg together many playoff teams unless they buy them in the open market.
| Our Top 5 Philadelphia Phillies Prospects at the end of the 2007 Season | ||||||||||
| No. | Player | Pos | Notes | Age | Level | |||||
| 1 | Joe Savery | LHP | Two-way college player who is now focussing on pitching; No. 2 potential | 22 | SS | |||||
| 2 | Adrian Cardenas | 2B | Average runner with solid approach and power; just needs to prove himself | 20 | A | |||||
| 3 | Carlos Carrasco | RHP | High-risk, solid-reward SP; struggled missing bats and walked a lot in '07 | 20 | AA | |||||
| 4 | Kyle Drabek | RHP | Elite amateur underwent TJ during first full season; still has loads of potential | 19 | A | |||||
| 5 | Josh Outman | LHP | Potential middle-of-the-rotation starter; good in A+/AA, AAA will be big test | 23 | AA | |||||
| * Ages are as of 11/8/07 | ||||||||||
| ** Level is the highest level the player has reached | ||||||||||
| *** Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production | ||||||||||
| <<< Discuss these rankings | ||||||||||
1. Joe Savery, LHP (11/4/85)
I’m definitely in the minority here but I liked Savery more as a first baseman than a pitcher entering the 2007 Draft. His 2006 shoulder surgery combined with his declining pitching performances from his freshman to junior years in college – granted that was injury-aided – really stuck out as a red flag to me. And while I’ll agree that his upside as a pitcher exceeds his upside as a hitter, the level of risk that comes with each is what made up my mind. But Savery is a pitcher. He walked 13 batters while striking out 22 in 26.1 short-season innings this summer. Prior to that, the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder walked 41 while striking out 61 in 93.1 innings for Rice. With those kinds of ratios, he has a lot to prove before he can even claim a back end rotation spot in the big leagues.
2. Adrian Cardenas, 2B (10/10/87)
A delightful person as well as a talented ball player, Cardenas (right) played in Chris Marrero’s shadow at Monsignor Pace High School in Florida up until his senior season, when the 6-foot, 185-pounder stole the spotlight and earned a selection as the 37th overall pick in 2006. Cardenas’ primary threat is a powerful middle-infield bat. He hit 30 doubles and 9 home runs while amassing a .295/.353/.417 vital line in the South Atlantic League in his first full season. He was a shortstop in high school and figures to be athletic enough to stick at second base. While it’s unlikely that Cardenas will come close to filling Chase Utley’s shoes, he is a good bet to become at least an average big leaguer.
3. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (3/21/87)
It’s still too early to label Carrasco as a good bet to spend the bulk of his big-league career coming out of the bullpen. But it’s a good time for fantasy owners to find a league mate who doesn’t sniff that possibility and ship Carrasco his or her way. The 6-foot-3, 180-pounder teased fans by striking out 24.7% of the Low-A batters he faced in 2006. He followed that performance up by fanning just 17.0% of the hitters he faced in 2007 (High-A and Double-A). And though he was young for Double-A, his performance dipped considerably once he got there. All-in-all, we have a hard-throwing righty with a career minor league walk-to-strikeout ratio of 1.95 (355 vs. 182) who barely managed 100 strikeouts despite pitching 140.0 innings in 2007. We’re fine with people believing that Carrasco will develop into an above-average big league starter. We just favor being realistic over optimistic when it comes to minor leaguers with extended track records.
4. Kyle Drabek, RHP (12/8/87)
Drabek has as much upside as any pitcher in this organization. The son of 1990 National League Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle showed glimpses of breakout potential early on in 2007 prior undergoing Tommy John surgery in late-July. He struck out 46 batters while walking 34 in 54.0 Low-A innings this season. It’s likely that he was pitching far below 100% during his 10 starts this season. Look for the 6-foot-1, 185-pounder to return to the mound in 2009. Rehabbing from this injury may actually help him mature into the kind of ball player that his biggest supporters believe he can become.
5. Josh Outman, LHP (9/14/84)
A tenth rounder in 2005 out of Central Missouri State, Outman reached Double-A toward the end of his second full pro season. He has put together a solid 23.8% strikeout rate over the last two seasons but only struck out 18.5% of the batters he faced in 42.0 Double-A innings. Our main reason for being cautious with Outman is because of his struggles commanding the strike zone (2.07 career K/BB). He also induces only an average amount of ground balls (49% in High-A – 117.1 IP – and 42% in Double-A). Still, Outman is a solid bet to someday claim a spot at the back of a big-league rotation.
Honorable Mentions :
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.