New York Mets Top 5

Sorry Mets fans but the upper-level talent in your farm system is only slightly above-average at best right now. Your team didn’t have a draft pick until 42^nd overall in 2007 and didn’t make its first selection until 67^th overall in 2006. What do you expect? An improved major-league team has cost your farm system. But you could end up with the 18^th and 22^nd picks of the 2008 Draft now that Type-A Free Agent Tom Glavine is heading back to Atlanta. So things figure to look up. Until then, Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, and Deolis Guerra all will be exciting talents to follow, as they could each blossom into impact big leaguers.

1. Fernando Martinez, OF (10/10/88)

Entering the season with about as much momentum as any hitting prospect, Martinez stumbled upon a major roadblock in 2007. The Dominican native accomplished little at the plate while playing through what was initially thought to just be a bad bone bruise. In early August the injury was diagnosed as a broken hamate bone. The $1.4 M international signee had already amassed a feeble 9.0% line-drive rate to go along with a .106 isolated power and 0.39 walk-to-strikeout rate by that time. Martinez finished the season at No. 25 in our Top 25 prospect rankings. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound lefthanded hitter still has the potential to climb as high as the Top 3 on that list by the end of 2008. But the kind of injury he’s recovering from can take over a year to fully heal from, so temper your immediate expectations and prepare to be patient.

2. Carlos Gomez, OF (12/4/85)

Oddly enough, Gomez underwent surgery to have his hamate bone removed about a month before Martinez. The timing of the injury couldn’t have done more to jam our radar. Power has been a prominent question for the 6-foot-4, 195-pound speedster. And after he got off to a respectably powerful start in the Pacific Coast League, Gomez was promoted to the big leagues and proceded to play somewhat irregularly – frequently entered games as a pinch-hitter – before going down with his injury. Sifting through Gomez’s statistics is hardly a fruitful practice, as they don’t paint much of a detailed picture. We believe that the Mets confidence in the youngster is reason enough to bank on him being a big-league regular for an extended period of time. And given the depth that New York has in its upper minors at the moment, we’re comfortable basing our ranking of Gomez largely on that notion.

3. Deolis Guerra, RHP (4/17/89)

Guerra found a home in the No. 87 spot on our Top 100 entering 2007. We figured the big righty (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) had a chance to make a lot of noise this season as a teenager on his second stint in High-A. But he did little over the course of the season to give us added confidence. Though the Venezuela native put up a solid ground-ball rate (50%) and improved on his command of the strike zone (2.64 K/BB after producing a 1.60 K/BB in 2006), he had trouble taking the ball regularly for St. Lucie – shoulder tendonitis. Yes, Guerra is still just 18-years-old but we find it somewhat concerning that he has only managed to pitch 178.3 innings over the last two years after starting both in full-season leagues. Pair that with the fact that Guerra’s performance has been far from dominant and you’re left with a high-upside prospect who has a lot to prove.

4. Mike Carp, 1B (6/30/86)

Despite putting up similar line drive, ground ball, walk, and strikeout rates as he did last season in High-A, Carp failed to replicate his power and contact numbers in Double-A – .163 isolated slugging in St. Lucie vs. .136 in Binghamton. He’s also a below-average runner at best. However, we have some analysis that describes Binghamton as a very difficult place to hit home runs and only average for doubles-hitters. This may have led Carp into some funks. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder was relatively young for Double-A and still showed solid plate discipline. New Orleans isn’t much friendlier than Binghamton for home-run hitters, but we’re confident that Carp will show signs of improvement next season in Triple-A. He likely won’t be ready to make a big-league impact for another couple of seasons.

5. Nick Evans, 1B (1/30/86)

It’s true. There simply isn’t an argument to be made that Carp out-hit Evans in 2007. Evans had a much more productive offensive season. But we’re not going to look past the fact that Carp was significantly better than Evans at the plate in 2006 and has played a level above the 6-foot-2, 180-pounder for each of the last two seasons – despite being five months younger. Our developing speed metric has them as similar runners, as well. Evans showed above-average strike-zone judgment in St. Lucie. His 2006 and 2007 power numbers are pretty similar, his contact rate just increased. A product of the 2004 Draft (134^th overall pick), Evans could be big-league ready by 2009. We see him as a potential solid-average regular at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

Phil Humber , who will turn 25 in December, had fewer strikeouts and a lower ground-ball percentage in 2007 than he did in 2006. His walk rates, however, were similar. It’s becoming hard to imagine the 6-foot-4, 210-pounder developing into more than a No. 3-4 starter at this point – and that would be his high-end upside. Though he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, Jonathan Niese is good at keeping the ball on the ground and had success avoiding free passes last season. The 2005 7^th rounder could have a breakout season in Double-A next year. The Mets first pick in the 2006 Draft (67^th overall), Kevin Mulvey is another guy who does a good job getting groundballs. He’s about as close to big-league-ready as any of the team’s minor league starting pitchers. Mulvey isn’t going to blow anyone away but he has the potential to be a solid contributor in the majors. Maybe we’re getting too carried away with potential here, but it’s hard not to be impressed by a guy who just turned 18 last month compiling almost 400 plate appearances in full-season ball. That player is 6-foot-2, 230-pound catcher Francisco Pena. Pena didn’t perform well in his pro debut; still he’s a guy to keep a close watch on.