Minnesota Twins Top 5

November 26, 2007

Winning the American League Central in four of the past six years, the Twins haven’t benefited from a top 15 overall draft pick since 2001, when the team took Joe Mauer No. 1. They selected winners with the 25th and 73rd picks of 2005 in Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, respectively. And though their 2003 and 2004 drafts haven’t been very fruitful to date, the Twins have two potential above-average regulars from 2006 in Tyler Robertson and Chris Parmelee. They’ll pick 14th in 2008.


Our Top 5 Minnesota Twins Prospects at the end of the 2007 Season
No.   Player   Pos   Notes   Age   Level
1   Tyler Robertson   LHP   Potential top-of-the-rotation starter blew hitters away over 102.1 innings   19   A
2   Anthony Swarzak   RHP   Borderline power pitcher who has proven himself in the upper minors   22   AA
3   Chris Parmelee   RF   Power hitter strikes out a ton, doesn't run well; has the FSL to deal with next 19   A
4   Trevor Plouffe   SS   Has gotten better in each of his three full pro seasons; may not stick at SS   21   AA
5   Ben Revere   CF   This 2007 1st rounder can run; he hit better than we expected in his debut   19   R
* Ages are as of 11/26/07
** Level is the highest level the player has reached
*** Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production
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1. Tyler Robertson, LHP (12/23/87)

A third rounder out of Bella Vista High School in 2006, Robertson literally blew away Low-A hitters in 2007. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder struck out 29.2% of the batters he faced – 2nd to Clayton Kershaw in the Midwest League – while walking just 7.8% and generating a 57% ground-ball rate. Though there isn’t room for much more, if Kershaw would have pitched as well as Robertson, his name may have even more hype around it. But Robertson is four months older than Kershaw and unlike the Dodgers’ phenom, he has yet to prove himself above Low-A, where lefties with good command tend to find success. It should also be noted that Robertson only threw 102.1 innings in 2007, as he joined Beloit at the very end of May.


2. Anthony Swarzak, RHP (9/10/85)

Somewhat derailed in the public eye, Swarzak (right) lost two months of development time last season for violating the minor league drug prevention and treatment program. The Twins sent Swarzak to High-A upon his Mid-June return – he opened the year in Double-A. Three starts later, the 6-foot-3, 195-pounder was back in Double-A, and he wrapped up his season by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Swarzak struck out 22.3% of the 420 batters he faced during the regular season and totaled a 3.36 K/BB rate. He’s not a ground-ball pitcher but he also has done an admirable job of keeping the ball in the park. If everything goes according to plan, Swarzak could be competing for a big league rotation spot sometime in 2008. We see the 2004 2nd rounder as a No. 3-4 starter in his prime.


3. Chris Parmelee, RF (2/24/88)

Though he has power, at this point it’s as much swing-and-miss power as it is game-changing power. Parmelee totaled 15 home runs in his full-season debut while striking out in 27.3% of his at-bats – 11th-worst in the Midwest League. The 20th overall pick in 2006, Parmelee is a below-average runner. The lefty should be challenged by opening the 2008 season in High-A Fort Myers. If he can improve his plate approach while playing in the Florida State League, Parmelee will shoot up our prospect depth chart.


4. Trevor Plouffe, SS (6/15/86)

Plouffe has gathered more critics than believers since the Twins took him 20th overall in 2004. But we believe. The 6-foot-1, 175-pounder has advanced a level a year and shown signs of improvement each season – .289 wOBA in Low-A, .305 in High-A, .315 in Double-A. If he continues at this rate, Plouffe could develop into an average big leaguer in his prime, though his lack of speed may eventually move him off of shortstop.


5. Ben Revere, CF (5/3/88)

Revere was a bit of a surprise pick when the Twins took him 28th overall last June. A speedster who went homerless in 216 pro plate appearances, Revere only ranks this high for us due to the lack of elite, upper-level talent in the Twins’ system. Exceptional athletes who have yet to prove themselves as hitters tend to be high-risk commodities. But Revere was impressive in his pro debut – .369 wOBA in rookie-ball.


Honorable Mentions:

When it comes to depth in this organization, we’re listing players who intrigue us as much as players who we would consider as say top 200 minor league talents. A 2006 14th rounder out of Notre Dame, Jeffrey Manship lit up Low-A as a 22-year-old then took a big step back in performance when he was promoted to High-A. A teenager at the start of the 2007 season, catcher Wilson Ramos replicated his solid 2006 rookie-ball line in Low-A, though he added a lot of strikeouts. First baseman Brock Peterson has had back-to-back powerful seasons while playing in High-A as a 22-year-old then Double-A as a 23-year-old. He turned 24 last week.

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.